Let me clear at the outset: I have opposed the coronavirus relief legislation, including the $900B package Trump signed into law in late December. The current Treasury debt is $27.8 T, almost $22 T of which is held by the public, including foreign-held securities. Trump in his version of right-wing populism basically had opened the door to monetizing more debt by arguing the $600 mean-tested "stimulus" wasn't nearly enough; we needed more like $2K payouts. This is on top of federal extensions to unemployment payments, etc. The Dems were quick to match Trump's bid, opposed by his fiscal conservative base.
Biden pulled up his own $1.9 T COVID-19 relief bill in its Keynesian splendor. The idea that this spending will stimulate the economy, still shackled by Draconian economic state/local regulation, is beyond self-evident absurdity. In the tradition of Rahm Emanuel's dictum of never letting a crisis go to waste, Biden has larded up his bill by payouts demanded by his pet constituencies, including an increase in the federal minimum wage. Businesses are struggling enough to operate without government trying to drive up labor costs in a tough economy. In the long term, substitute labor, e.g., kiosks and other automation, becomes more attractive. Never mind the cost of living drastically differs among states and/or regions. This piece of legislation has nothing to do with COVID-19-specific relief. The Dems have been routinely pushing increasing it since FDR introduced it on the federal level in the late 1930's, something which exacerbated problems recovering from the Depression.
But the 10 GOP /Senator ( Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Todd Young of Indiana, Jerry Moran of Kansas, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Rob Portman of Ohio, Mike Rounds of South Dakota, Mitt Romney of Utah, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) counterproposal, which comes in at about $618B, is less than a third of Biden's approval. They fairly match Biden on vaccine/testing costs but they differ in not funding state/local bailouts, they means-test and lower individual/family payouts, and they lower and limit the timeframe for the unemployment supplemental funding (which most conservatives, including myself, see as morally hazardous).
So far, it doesn't look like Biden doesn't seem to want to compromise on the size of his package. From a political perspective, the 10 senators give him a bipartisan win and a filibuster-proof majority. If the Dems try to go it alone, they get the full blame for the unexpected side effects or unintended consequences of the legislation and it becomes a talking point for the midterms, where Democrats will be hard-pressed to maintain their razor-thin majority in the House. They have somewhat better prospects for capturing a pure Senate majority, although 2 seats in AZ and GA are up in 2022,
This would leave Schumer with basically 2 strategies: do away with the filibuster (which reportedly 2 Senate Dems oppose, Sinema (AZ) and Manchin (WV)) or muscle it through budget reconciliation, which bypasses the filibuster.
I've got a bad feeling on this standoff. I don't think Biden is negotiating in good faith. I think he's trying to lend an impression he's being "bipartisan" but keep in mind Biden was never part of the Gang of 12 in 2007 or 8 in 2013 on immigration. In fact, he told GHW Bush in 1992 he wouldn't allow nomination of a SCOTUS justice in an election year. He may be more worried about pressure from his progressive left flank against the perception of caving in to the GOP and setting a precedent.
And just from my pragmatic side, I don't think Biden should be spending political capital on this package. I think he would be better off focusing on more popular funding like vaccines and the like, and then move on to Dreamers and/or infrastructure, where he could count on some bipartisan support. If he blows off bipartisan support here, his honeymoon may be over.
Make no mistake; I oppose even the moderate GOP proposal. I think everything would work better by simply liberating the private sector. But Biden looks like he's trying to out-Trump Trump. He may not have Trump's disagreeable personality, but that won't end well.
