Analytics

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Post #3502 M

Quote of the Day

Man has no nobler function than to defend the truth.
Ruth McKenney  

Tweet of the Day



Eileen, the Lazy Millennial, and New Year Resolutions




Eileen and Politically Correct Halloween Costumes




Eileen Tackles Holiday Stress



What Does Freedom Mean To You?




Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Eric Allie via IPI


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Guy Lumbardo, "Auld Lang Syne". I used to watch Lumbardo rein in the new year on CBS growing up. I loved the silky smooth melodies. We'll restart the vocalist series Tuesday, starting off with Mariah Carey.

Post #3501 J

A Basic Reflection on Cryptomania


I still recall a few manias from my work history. One of the first dealt with gold, which had exploded from an official rate of $35/ounce to over $800/oz in the wake of Nixon's decision to break the link between paper money and hard currency. One fellow computer programmer/analyst was putting literally almost everything he made into gold purchases; I had been wondering why he was shaving in the office. and it turned out that the power company had cut him off for unpaid bills. Volcker's high interest rate remedy to high inflation is widely attributed to breaking the back of inflation, the principal factor underlying gold's dizzying ride up. Gold eventually gave back much of its gains and it would take years to recover. I couldn't help but wonder what became of that colleague who had hopped on the mania just as it was peaking. There's an old saw that manias correct when everybody is all in--there are no more buyers at these price levels. Typically it's stated that when the small/retail investor enters the market, it's the beginning of the end as they hope the trend continues indefinitely--or at least long enough to sell to an even more gullible investor after making a big enough return. But even experts can't time if and when a mania tops.

I still recall what Greenspan once infamously called "the irrational exuberance" of the Internet economy, where the rush for market share trumped profits: the old rules no longer applied, etc. I never really played with options, foreign exchanges, etc., or decided to daytrade as a living. but I did have enough success to grow a brokerage account into (very low) six-figures, along the way doing some successful stock shorts.(I eventually lost most of what was in that account, making the rookie mistake of not cutting my losses; I'm still carrying the loss on my tax returns; the government, of course, taxed 100% of the capital gains in building the account, but you can only deduct a net loss of $3000 per year.  As I plan for my retirement years, I'm focusing on building my retirement assets, not in investing taxable accounts. So since year 2000 I've not had the funds to do taxable investing. This means I haven't had the gains to offset my large losses in that account from 20 years backs, so I've been stuck carrying over those losses $3K per year since then likely to years in the future.) It took the NASDAQ at least 15 years or more just to get back to where it was.

The funny thing is I was not really that into the stock market. But beyond the nonsense that "this is a new market; profits don't matter"; there were other warning signs. One of them was when I went to office printers (at a chiptesting equipment client) for faxes or printouts, I often found employee printouts of some high tech company stock charts, etc. Not to mention by my DBA predecessor had been lured away by the promise of stock options.

I'm writing this post not so much because of the uncertainty over a richly valued domestic stock market, but cryptomania. Let me be clear: I'm all for decentralized currency, which cannot be manipulated like fiat paper currency.  And perhaps I'm playing a game of "woulda, coulda, shoulda"; I mean, if all my retirement assets had been in Bitcoin at the beginning of the year (Bitcoin sold for under $1K/coin), this year's explosive market would have multiplied my assets by more than 15 times. Of course, one would then have had to stomach  volatility of up to 20% or more daily spikes or corrections. I can't afford to put my retirement savings at that kind of risk.

I have no way of knowing whether the current value of Bitcoin (at just under $15000, according to Google) is overvalued, undervalued or fairly valued. But this past week at work, I've learned at least 3 co-workers have been playing with the crypto currency exchanges. Not much money, maybe $75-300. But the point is when the small investor or Grandma are joining the party, it's usually closer to the end than the beginning of the cycle. I'm staying out of it.

Trump, Amazon and the USPS

Trump recently attacked Amazon for using USPS as a low-cost delivery partner (USPS has a government-sanctioned mail delivery monopoly and largely fulfills Amazon Sunday deliveries). But let's be clear: Trump's distaste for Amazon and its CEO Bezos has more to do with Bezos' ownership of WashPo, one of Trump's media critics.  Citigroup recently released an analysis claiming that the USPS is stuck with a money-losing contract losing nearly $1.50 a package. The USPS points out that the Amazon contract is profitable from a marginal costs perspective, i.e., when you tie in the costs of labor, accrued vehicle expenses, handling, etc. of Amazon delivery. Its profit, of course, offsets other USPS expenses, including fixed costs. How to explain the discrepancy? With going into a long boring discussion of cost accounting, Citigroup argues that the delivery business should be allocated more of the USPS' fixed costs, not just marginal costs. (No doubt USPS' competitors, UPS and FedEx, would love this idea.) This is basically an arbitrary distinction; The Constitution or Congress did not give USPS a monopoly on delivery services in general. The point is the USPS is leveraging costs it established to handle its mail monopoly to compete in the parcel market.

 But Trump has a tendency to oversimplify things. So he takes the Citigroup analysis at a superficial level and uses it to bash both the USPS and Amazon. But here's the reality:

  • even if the contract with USPS allowed USPS to pass on price hikes to Amazon; Amazon has other partners, even its home-grown delivery service; the number of shipments could decline, even decrease associated aggregate revenues;
  • as bad as the USPS financial situation is today, package delivery is mitigating part of it;
  • the real solution is to fully privatize the USPS; it needs freedom to cut money-loosing facilities and assets, flexibility to change prices, operating hours, etc., to invest in its package business.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Post #3500 M


It's the blogger's birthday!

Quote of the Day

Love me when I least deserve it, 
because that's when I really need it.
Swedish Proverb  

Tweet of the Day











Image of the Day


Courtesy of Independent Institute


Congressional New Year Resolutions




Choose Life




Oppression in Egypt



Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Henry Payne via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Mannheim Steamroller, "Veni Veni"

Friday, December 29, 2017

Post #3499 M

Quote of the Day

To do the useful thing, 
to say the courageous thing, 
o contemplate the beautiful thing: 
that is enough for one man's life.
T. S. Eliot  

Tweet of the Day












Congressional New Year Resolutions




Taxes vs. Small Business




The City With No Taxes




Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Henry Payne via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Mannheim Steamroller, "Joy to the World"


Post #3498 J

Flying to BWI from St. Louis on Christmas, I, in Southwest's open seating Group C, was resigned to the likelihood of having to squeeze into a middle seat as all other seats were taken, certainly not something someone of my size prefers. To my relief, I spotted an aisle seat near a young couple and their adorable baby daughter. I asked if they minded; the wife said no, but 5-month Baby Abigail, on her first flight, was teething, and she might be cranky. I'm the oldest of 7, have 21 nephews and nieces, and I think 17 grandnephews/nieces. I once babysat my first then baby nephew while my sister and brother-in-law went out for dinner. He started fussing soon as they left--not something I could resolve by a diaper change or feeding him a bottle. I didn't really know what was going on. I adapted what I call an Indian dance, bobbing him up and down--which seemed to work until I stopped/got tired. My sister called to check, initially seemed to think everything was fine, but came home soon thereafter. She later explained the boy was teething; okay, why didn't you mention that--and what to do about it? I'm just a clueless bachelor uncle; for all I knew, he was sick and may have needed medical attention. Lots of younger siblings had teethed, of course, but Mom took care of it.

Baby Abigail was very good the whole 90-minute flight. She was an adorable blue-eyed blond with dimples when she smiled She may have fussed maybe 1 or 2 minutes the whole flight. Her parents easily coaxed smiles from her. She did notice me on numerous occasions, I did the usual stuff--I waved to her, tried to play peek-a-boo, and smiled at her--to a deadpan view. Who knows what she was thinking--that's the fattest man I've ever seen in my life! At least that's a better reaction from then Baby Grandniece Korrie who burst out in tears when I first met her. It was a shock; I usually get along great with babies and little kids; many who have fallen asleep in my arms. My niece explained she had some sort of social anxiety. I just saw her for the first time in 2 years; she's still a little shy around me (after all, she barely knows me), but at least she didn't run screaming from me like I'm the baby monster from the tar pit.

I just love kids; I would love to have my own. I still remember how Mom broke the news of the pregnancy of our youngest sibling. She first asked whether the kids preferred a new baby or a puppy. Wrong approach. My siblings voted for a puppy, and I wanted the baby.  And the gender score was 3-3. Do you want a brother or sister? It went along gender lines, except I crossed over, wishing for a sister. I don't think my little brothers ever forgave that betrayal. It may be why I have 3 goddaughters but no godsons.

What brought on this discussion is this Twitter thread over a fight between a young couple headed for a Mexican vacation. Apparently the girlfriend got a major promotion or new job which led to her now making more money than her boyfriend, and his ego couldn't take it. He thought she should turn down the job for the sake of their relationship. He then went over the line by saying when she started having a family, she would end up quitting her job anyway to raise their children. It seems that they never discussed children; it turns out she's not interested in having a family, and she publicly broke up with him.

Of course, the man is also getting heat from a bunch of feminists who think this guy must have teleported from the 50's. I haven't had that many relationships with upwardly successful women. Three of my 4 little sisters did stay at home when the kids were little, but my baby sister, the accountant, worked after brief maternal leave, in large part because she and her husband needed both incomes, and their kids are now outstanding young adults. I don't think it would bother me if my significant other made more than me; I would probably feel happy for her, proud of how market perceives her value and contribution. I have a middle brother who works as a manager for a large private Kansas conglomerate. I have no clue what he earns, but while I was a broke PhD student in the 80's, he already owned his own house. He and his wife own a timeshare in Mexico, take annual vacations and/or cruises, and are considering building a retirement home in central Texas. My youngest brother, after a successful military career, has a secure civil service job and a retirement plan far better than my own, and he's one of the 2 siblings without a college degree. I don't see it as a zero-sum game, i.e., that their success comes at my expense. I am responsible for the choices I've made in life; my little brothers are outstanding men, and I'm proud of them.

I think I'm  more worried about how the young woman reacted to the idea of having children. Now, of course, it's her decision, and there are a number of men and women who can't or won't make the sacrifices, have the temperament, or accept the responsibilities of being a parent. But children are awesome gifts from God, and I think my biggest disappointment in life is not my short-shrifted academic career, but not having my own family. As I write, at least 4 of my nephews or nieces who have married over the past few years haven't started their families yet (but I have added a grandnephew and a grandniece over the past year-plus). And one of my dearest nieces miscarried her first daughter, which has been an inconsolable experience.

I'm angry that the ideological feminists have made maternity a zero-plus proposition for women's careers. One of my sisters, who raised 6 children, has attained professional success after years as a housewife. Her kids have turned out great; her 5 sons are all Eagle Scouts. I think there are things I would have done differently if I had a family depending on my income. And there are the experiences I've never had, having a baby Abigail in my life.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Post $3497 M

Quote of the Day

Man is so made that whenever anything fires his soul, impossibilities vanish. 
Jean de la Fontaine 


Tweet of the Day













Image of the Day



DEAD WRONG: Small Plates Mean Fewer Calories




Stossel vs. Shatner on Government




I Like Eggnog



Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Branco via Facebook


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Elvis Presley, "Blue Christmas"

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Post #3496 M

Quote of the Day

Forget past mistakes. 
Forget failures. 
Forget everything except 
what you're going to do now and do it.
William Durant  


Tweet of the Day











The Tragedy of Venezuela




Taxation Is Theft


I may have embedded this clip a few weeks back; if so, it deserves a reprise.



Political Cartoon


via Catholic Libertarians


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


TSO, "Carol of the Bells"

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Post #3495 M

Quote of the Day

Do not confine your children to your own learning, 
or they were born in another time.
Hebrew proverb  


Tweet of the Day














The Frugal Government



The Impossibility of Reforming the Public Education Monopoly



Why is the West So Rich?


Happy Holidays From the TSA!


The Emergence of the Nanny State


Facebook Corner

(Niece on the TSA). So, apparently enough change in your change purse makes TSA want to inspect your purse 🙄
Never mind that I’ve been thru security checks 9 times before this, each with more change in there, without a problem lol
Yeah, the thugs also made me take off my belt (and the crowd got a view it didn't bargain for). And one thug demanded that I unload those paper receipts from my pockets. Not to mention getting the obligatory patdown. These idiots think their kabuki dances make passengers feel safer. As if they know what they're doing when they go poking in a baby's diaper!

Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Steve Kelley via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


The Boston Pops, "Sleigh Ride"


Monday, December 25, 2017

Post #3494 M Happy Christmas!

Courtesy of graphicsbuzz
Quote of the Day

I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. 
I've lost almost 300 games. 
26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. 
I've failed over and over and over again in my life. 
And that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan  

Patterns of Why Great Civilizations Fail




Facebook Corner

(Eye of the Tiber). ‪Church of Sweden has a satire site?‬ (Referencing gender-neutral initiative by the Church of Sweden)
No doubt, the Church will next rule all gendered prayers null and void. It must be based on the latest interpretation of the original Swedish text of the Old Testament. "You shall not take the name of God in gender."

Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Tom Stiglich via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017

John Lennon, "Happy Christmas (War Is Over)"

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Post #3493 M Christmas Eve

Courtesy of rawpixel

DEAD WRONG: State Spending, Not Capitalism, Responsible For Reducing Poverty




Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Mike Lester via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017

Bing Crosby, "Silent Night"


Saturday, December 23, 2017

Post #3492 M

Courtesy of Pixabay
Quote of the Day

The test of courage comes when we are in the minority. 
The test of tolerance comes when we are in the majority.
Ralph W. Sockman 

Puzder On Economics Of Minimum Wage




Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Tom Stiglich via Townhall

Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Judy Garland, "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas"

Friday, December 22, 2017

Post #3491 M

Courtesy of Miesha Moriniere
Quote of the Day

If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, 
he will scrutinize it closely, and 
unless the evidence is overwhelming, 
he will refuse to believe it. 
If, on the other hand, he is offered something 
which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, 
he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. 
The origin of myths is explained in this way.
Bertrand Russell  

Tweet of the Day








Presents for Pro-Liberty People




Protecting Kids From Being Kids




More on Taxes



Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Michael Ramirez via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Gene Autry, "Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer"

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Post #3490 M

Courtesy of Tookapic

Tweet of the Day



What It Means To Be A Real Man




Bitcoin Billionaire



Political Cartoon


Courtesy of Chip Bok via Townhall


Musical Interview: Christmas Mix 2017


Spike Jones, "All I Want for Christmas Is My Two Front Teeth"


Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Post #3489 M

Courtesy of Pixabay

Defense Spending



Economic Liberty




Tom Massie



The National Debt



Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Tom Stiglich via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Bing Crosby, "White Christmas"


Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Post #3488 M

Courtesy of Pixabay


Tweet of the Day




















Political Correctness in Academia: Is It Worse?




The Deadly isms




What Does Freedom Mean To You?





Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Jerry Holbert via Townhall


Musical Interlude: Christmas Mix 2017


Newsong, "The Christmas Shoes"