It's better to light a candle than to curse the darkness.
Chinese proverb
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| Hillary Clinton: Economic Illiterate Via Independent Institute |
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Political Potpourri
From the WSJ:
Some 52% of likely voters in the survey said they wanted the election to produce a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favored Democratic control. Republicans held a seven-point lead on the question at this point in the 2010 election in a Journal/NBC survey.The poll shows the GOP consolidating, even expanding as we're 9 days until the election. Note that this doesn't necessarily reflect individual races in purple/red states, and it doesn't mean the voters necessarily love the GOP, but it does suggest that the voters are not happy with the Dem-controlled Senate and White House
From Washpo:
In fact, congressional Democrats are facing their highest disapproval rating in at least the last 20 years, at 67 percent. Meanwhile, 30 percent approve of the job congressional Democrats are doing. The poll comes on the heels of a WaPo-ABC poll that showed the Democratic Party in general hitting a three-decade low as far as how people feel about it.RCP shows 6 of 10 of the lead Senate seats red and a projected 51, down 2 from my last check, but 2 of the blues are virtual ties in Georgia and Kansas, and the other 2 are 2-point leads for incumbents in New Hampshire and North Carolina. I'm not ready to call all 4 of those races for the GOP yet, but at this point I think Roberts (R-KS) will make a remarkable comeback from political near-death down 10 points with some Tea Party types willing to cut a deal with independent Orman if he would caucus with the GOP; one of the polls out today showed Roberts with a 4 point lead. I think in the end that the Tea Partiers will hold their noses over their failed attempt to primary Roberts and vote to kick out Harry Reid. Perdue (R-GA) had been consistently ahead of Nunn until a recent flurry of close polls favoring Nunn, but Perdue has won the last 2 polls. Hagan (D-NC) has surprisingly hung tough and has narrowly won 3 of the last 5 polls, and Shaheen (D-NH) has down slightly better over her last 5 polls, with their male adversaries each winning one 1-point poll. However, neither incumbent has broken 50, and you have to expect most undecideds will probably move to the challenger.
I had higher hopes in Virginia, Michigan and Minnesota (where the Democrats stole a Senate seat in 2008), but the GOP has failed to field a competitive state-wide candidate in MN since Pawlenty. Terri Land (R-MI) is an attractive candidate but with 2 of the last 6 polls given Peters a simple majority, this is tough. Similar stories for McFadden (MN) and Gillespie (VA). With 9 days left, I don't rule out surprises like wiping out a 10-point lead in a wave election (remember Gingrich's upset of Romney in SC in 2012?), but these races seem to have been leveling off.
On a brighter note, it looks like Democratic challenges in Kentucky and a late surprise 3-way race in trying to hold South Dakota from former Gov. Rounds are fading, and most of the recent polls have been shown persistent 5-point or so leads in converting Dem-held seats in CO, IA, AK, AR, and LA.
Facebook Corner
(Reason). To eliminate wage discrimination, smash the corporate state.
Glancing at the comments below, it's clear that a number of commenters have no idea who Sheldon Richman (the author) is, a prominent libertarian author for decades, former editor of The Freeman and VP for Future of Freedom Foundation. I do dislike his use of the term "corporate state" because people will confound it with corporation-bashing, the usual leftist crackpot conspiracies of plutocrats, etc. In simpler terms, think of competing special interests, including businesses and labor groups, which have their vested interests in restrictions of competition and other State-conferred "rights". But no self-respecting libertarian would ever attack the free association of corporations or unions.
The real enemy of liberty is the corrupt, self-serving State and its monopoly on the use of force in domestic and international intervention. Political whores will dress up their interventions (like wage constraints and benefit mandates, occupational licensing, etc.) in populist rhetoric, but explicit (e.g., payroll taxes) or implicit (regulations) costs constrain operational budgets and viable business options, causing unintended consequences, like reduced workhours or workforce, substitution of technology, etc. The private sector often competes for labor in very innovative ways without State intervention, labor pacts, etc.; for instance, my first IT position was at an employer which offered 4-day workweeks and subsidized cafeterias.
(Bastiat Institute). Falling prices are the Keynesian's worse nightmare. The price of USB drive storage has fallen by 99.99% over the past decade. The horror! Of course, the efficiency and automation that the market unleashes tend to make things cheaper over time, and the only thing that can offset this trend is massive expansion of the monetary base by a central bank.
"Deflation creates the opposite phenomenon: Debt gets more expensive over time, because consumer spending power declines." WHAT?!
I think he's making assumptions of income and debt. The increased real cost of debt service (you're repaying debt with more expensive dollars) offsets the purchasing power of your discretionary income. All things being equal, holding income constant, under inflation your purchasing power decreases and under deflation, your real income/purchasing power increases. He's probably assuming falling nominal income and a high debt burden; the context is that he is arguing you are better off with higher wages under inflation because you're paying off debt with cheaper dollars, and he's trying to argue the reverse takes place under deflation.
I do think that he phrased it badly. He should have simply said that we're worse off because debt must be repaid with more expensive dollars--and we could buy more goods and services with lower debt service costs.
Inflation makes debts cheaper and incentivizes debt: Historically, societies without a central bank, and thus with prices that gradually lowered over time, have far less public and private debt than societies with a central bank.
Remember that there are 2 parties to a transaction, including debt. There is a transfer of wealth from lender to debtor under general inflation, and the effect reverses under deflation. There can be little doubt why a government with a large debt pursues easy monetary policy, and why demand for credit increases as its perceived cost decreases. Other State fiscal policy distortions include things like mortgage interest tax deduction, bank regulations to promote lending to higher risk applicants, and deposit insurance.
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| Courtesy of the original artist via IPI |
Linda Ronstadt, "Alison"
