The most important thing
a father can do for his children is
to love their mother.
Theodore Hesburgh
The Akin Kerfuffle:
Can He Survive the Election?
Akin Will Beat McCaskill
The GOP may need to back off its self-defeating crusade to oust Todd Akin: Akin could actually convert this into a positive in the same way Lisa Murkowski did, as beholden to no one and willing to stand up to the party leadership. (This incident, oddly enough, could be the best thing that ever happened to Akin. The Tea Party has never been all that fond of the establishment politicos. I could easily envision a populist campaign, where Akin says that he is not beholden to the political establishment of either party, and nothing will stand between him and the people of Missouri.)
In yesterday's post, I said that I would be very surprised if Missouri US Senate GOP nominee Todd Akin was still in the race at close of business today. In fact, I've seen a variety of other stories on this: Mitt Romney asked him to step down, and 5 existing/prior GOP US Senators from Missouri asked him to. Dick Morris, among others, was pushing an online petition. But Akin, showing a Democrat poll with him still in the lead, has vowed to fight on.
This puts the GOP in a difficult position. There is nothing McCaskill would like better than to divide and conquer a split Republican vote, e.g., if the GOP fielded a second candidate. I know in yesterday's commentary I myself pushed the Clayton Williams debacle in the 1990 Texas gubernatorial campaign. But on second thought, Akin may be able to turn this around: remember how Rand Paul went off message in the 2010 campaign by questioning Civil Rights legislation? He came back to win going away. And there was consider pressure on Clinton to resign during the impeachment process. The one good thing about Clinton not resigning is that George W. Bush didn't have to go up against an incumbent President
No, I'm still not happy with what Akin did; the Democrats have been trying to promote a trumped up "War on Women" and Akin blundered his way right into their talking points. In fairness to Congressman Akin, I'm embedding his video, which I think is particularly strong in the first two-thirds. I'm not a public relations guru, but I think that he should admit that he was wrong about reproductive aspects of the rape experience (not just a bad choice of words), and it would be helpful if he took time from his schedule to meet with rape victims.
As for the political aspects: I noted that the PPP (Democratic) poll Akin referenced had more to do with Akin losing support to undecided than McCaskill winning them over. The fact of the matter is that this election is more about McCaskill's knee-jerk support of progressive programs including ObamaCare, not whether Akin got a score of 100 on his biology exam.
The revelation that the Democrats spent money behind the scene propping up Akin's primary campaign and McCaskill's muted response to the controversy seems to suggest that they have the candidate they want: they think that they can portray him as an "extremist" and McCaskill as a "moderate". You can put a lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig: McCaskill has a lifetime ACU rating of 14.60 vs. Blunt's 92. Are Missourians really going to vote to reelect a politician too liberal for her state, whom blows 4 out of every 5 votes, because of a gaffe by Akin? Biden probably makes a gaffe EVERY WEEK--and yet millions of people will still vote for him to be one heartbeat from the Presidency.
I think that Akin's near-political death experience may be beneficial: I would hope that now he'll stick on message with the economy and McCaskill's overly progressive voting record. I think he has some fence-mending to do. After seeing the video ad and the latest poll, I'm having second thoughts: in fact, I think he'll pull it off easily IF HE RUNS A DISCIPLINED CAMPAIGN. What this means, Congressman, is toning down the rhetoric; making McCaskill play on your court, not hers; and being disciplined (less is more): avoid speculation and stick to your core competencies and campaign themes.
As for the McCaskill campaign: be careful of what you wish for.
Political Potpourri
What I find particularly fascinating is that in RCP's latest polls, Democratic polls are showing Scott Brown ahead in Massachusetts and Hoekstra ahead of incumbent Stabenow (for the first time and Romney ahead of Obama) in Michigan. Another incumbent, Bob Casey is at 43, 4 below Obama's own rating; true, he's 15 points ahead of an unknown, but if you're the incumbent and you're in the lower 40's, you have to like Smith's chances to define himself down the home stretch.
As I just mentioned above, Akin won the latest poll against McCaskill, the first after the rape kerfuffle. Akin's apology ad was well-done, I expect him to recapture lost ground, and I think the immense pressure on him to resign may dissipate if follow-up polls, as I suspect, show Akin near or above McCaskill's support level. Cook Political Report just declared that Akin's gaffe has rendered him "unelectable" (I agree that this is a common perception and a basic reason why the GOP has been pressuring him to step down) I no longer believe that as I've discussed above: I'm not saying Akin won't have to work to win it, but Cook is obviously assuming that McCaskill wins back voters simply because of one gaffe by the opposition. As weird as Akin's gaffe was, it was not a Clayton Williams gaffe. Akin points out in his ad that rape is wrong and he himself has two daughters. All he has to say is, look, I'm not a doctor; I made a mistake; I was wrong. Let's move on. It's not as bad as Claire McCaskill voting wrong 80% of the time.
A recent shock poll in Illinois showed Obama at 49% in Cook Country (versus 76% in the 2008 election) and Romney edging him in the collar counties. The GOP normally does better downstate, and the Dems have to pile up big margins in Cook Country to carry the state.
The only bright spot for the Dems is that the Republicans are currently non-competitive in New York statewide. I see Gillibrand as a pathetically weak incumbent, but she won going away in 2010 for the special election and seems to be winning 2-1 going into the fall election for the full term. So far Giuliani and former Governor Pataki have passed on challenging either Senate seat.
My intuition tells me that the Democrats are beginning to spring slow leaks all over the place. The leads of the GOP Senate challengers to incumbents are at or below the level of significance; Romney is beginning to emerge with 1% to 3% leads in a number of battleground states. This time Romney has a fighting chance with campaign money; let's see if he gets any momentum coming out of next week's GOP convention.
The Pussy Riot Kerfuffle
I must admit--I'm not sure what a Pussy Riot is. (Maybe a bunch of released Texas felons heading for the legendary Chicken Ranch? See ZZ Top below.) I did see a few Youtube clips over the weekend of three members of the Russian feminist punk band (Maria Alekhina, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, and Yekaterina Samutsevich ). (The ladies are in their twenties, and two of them are young mothers).
The three ladies were recently convicted of hooliganism and sentenced to 2 years for briefly interrupting services at a Russian Orthodox cathedral to protest what they see as the Russian Orthodox Church's support of the Putin-led Russian government. ("The Orthodox leader Patriarch Kyril has been widely reported as saying Putin's years in power have been a miracle from God." I bet that Obama wishes an American prelate would find his "saving the domestic auto industry" miraculous...)
They were chanting lines of their punk-prayer "Virgin Mary, Put Putin Away". Sample lines of the group's song include:
The phantom of liberty is in heavenThey now have a new sequel hit song: "Putin Lights Up the Fires". Here are some sample lyrics:
Gay-pride sent to Siberia in chains
The head of the KGB, their chief saint,
Leads protesters to prison under escort
Patriarch Gundyaev believes in Putin
Bitch, better believe in God instead
Virgin Mary, Mother of God, put Putin away
Рut Putin away, put Putin away
Every arrest is carried out with love for the sexistPutin was inaugurated for a non-contiguous third time on May 7; the songwriters are making reference to a brutal crackdown on a protest on the eve of the event.
Who botoxed his cheeks and pumped his chest and abs.
Throw off the yoke of former KGB!
Putin is lighting the fires of revolution
Arrest the whole city for May 6th
Seven years isn't enough, give us 18!
I'm not sure that I would go around poking a Russian bear with a stick. (I've finally posed a question in this blog that Sarah Palin can answer with authority...) As Dana Carvey doing George H.W. Bush would say, "Not gonna do it. Wouldn't be prudent at this juncture..."
More seriously, Mr. Putin, stop being so thin-skinned and petty. (You have no idea what my unpublished song lyrics about Obama look like...) In the US, nearly every politician gets elected into office knowing at least 40% or more voters voted against him and for his opponent. Chances are, this punk band would never have made an appearance in this blog (I'm not a big fan of punk music), except for an unnecessarily heavy-handed approach that has been universally condemned around the world. A smarter approach to the problem would have been to require the young ladies to headline a benefit concert with proceeds to go to a Russian Orthodox charity.
Do the right thing and release these young women now.
(See Paul Gregory's eloquent post on this topic. HT Cafe Hayek.)
'I, Pencil' to 'I, Smartphone'
FEE has the classic pdf for free download here and the audiobook here.
Here is an endearing update of Leonard Read's 54-year-old timeless essay. (Isn't the little blond sweetheart with the flower in her hair beyond cute and adorable? Doesn't your heart just melt? Is there a best supporting actress category for web videos? I wish I had a little daughter I could give a smartphone to...)
Doug French and Jeffrey Tucker of Laissez Faire Books has compiled a great list of 15 web videos (including "I, Smartphone") of commerce and entrepreneurship which you will find and access here (highly recommended).
Prison Reform and Victimless Crimes
Professor D'Amico presents a compelling case for prison reform; I wrote a similar piece on June 22, particularly looking at the high concentration on illegal drugs and immigrants. Some of the key takeaways in this piece:
I will note that I've written even earlier posts advocating prison reform (here) and/or legalization or decriminalization of victimless crimes (here).
Michael Suede has a different cut of the data:
Political Humor
Congratulations to our buddy Sylvester Stallone. His movie “The Expendables 2” was number one this past weekend. Some of you might know it by the original title: “Grumpy Old Men.” - Jay Leno
[Barack Obama volunteered Joe Biden for "The Expendables 2' but Joe couldn't remember his lines...]
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is refusing to release more than the first four inches of his torso [re: shirtless Paul Ryan], though he insists he has nothing to hide. - Jimmy Kimmel
[That's because Mitt Romney is in training for this fall's Presidential posedown being hosted by the Washington Post's Eli Saslow. Romney remembers that Saslow wrote how "the sun glinted off [Obama's] chiseled pectorals". And then there's the international Mr. President posedown, with Vladimir Putin in contention.]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Supertramp, "Goodbye Stranger"
Prison Reform and Victimless Crimes
Professor D'Amico presents a compelling case for prison reform; I wrote a similar piece on June 22, particularly looking at the high concentration on illegal drugs and immigrants. Some of the key takeaways in this piece:
- we imprison more people than the rest of the major democracies COMBINED
- we have 4.5% of the world's population but hold 23% of world prisoners (see slide (0:46)),
- most countries prosecute at the local level: in the US, there are over 4500 federal crimes and over 208K prisoners (see slides (1:32; 1:56))
- some states (CA and TX) account for a large number of local/state: up to 170K or more each), costs almost $40B/year for states
- the major stats: 743/100K incarcerated, 1.6M in prison.
If you go to the liner notes under the video on Youtube (click on the embedded video Youtube hotlink), there are a handful of linked supplemental references.
Michael Suede has a different cut of the data:
- victimless crime 86%:
- drugs 50%;
- public order 36%: "immigration, weapons charges, public drunkenness, selling lemonade without a license, dancing in public, feeding the homeless without a permit etc"
- "the U.S. incarcerates its citizens at a rate that is 5 times the world average"
- over 2% of the entire U.S. population [and 5% of adult males] is under correctional supervision (prison, parole, probation)
- in 2007, nearly a quarter trillion tax dollars were spent on police, corrections, and the justice system, nearly 1.6% of US GDP
Political Humor
Congratulations to our buddy Sylvester Stallone. His movie “The Expendables 2” was number one this past weekend. Some of you might know it by the original title: “Grumpy Old Men.” - Jay Leno
[Barack Obama volunteered Joe Biden for "The Expendables 2' but Joe couldn't remember his lines...]
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is refusing to release more than the first four inches of his torso [re: shirtless Paul Ryan], though he insists he has nothing to hide. - Jimmy Kimmel
[That's because Mitt Romney is in training for this fall's Presidential posedown being hosted by the Washington Post's Eli Saslow. Romney remembers that Saslow wrote how "the sun glinted off [Obama's] chiseled pectorals". And then there's the international Mr. President posedown, with Vladimir Putin in contention.]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Supertramp, "Goodbye Stranger"
