When you find a man who knows his job
and is willing to take responsibility,
keep out of his way
and don't bother him with unnecessary supervision.
What you may think is co-operation is nothing but interference.
Thomas Dreier
Olympic Notes
- What can you say about Michael Phelps? Say retirement from Olympic competition ain't so, Michael! I thought after he got off to a poor start in part to belated training for London, not placing in his initial event and botching his first attempt of a 3-peat in his signature race, Phelps wouldn't want to leave the stage with a mixed effort. I will say that today's close in a final individual event, a second consecutive three-peat, was incredible. In fact, I think this race (the 100M butterfly) may be the most amazing race I've seen in the Olympics. That's because the technical performance of his first half of the race was unimpressive--seventh to the wall. Somehow he just blew away the rest of the field down the home stretch, and it wasn't even that close at the finish. Given all the technical flaws that he himself admitted, it was incredible. I think the only time I've been more impressed was 2008's US freestyle relay win where America's Lezak improbably chased down France's Bernard in the closing meters.
- Kudos to Gabby Douglas, the first woman of color to win the individual (versus team) gymnastics gold medal. I've never really been a fan of gymnastics, but my favorite Olympian gymnast remains Kerri Strug. The US women needed a good score off her vault routine to clinch the team gold; she badly damaged her ankle (third-degree lateral sprain and tendon damage) on the first attempt, scoring just a 9.162. Encouraged by her coach to tough it out, a slightly limping Strug scored a 9.712, clinching the team gold, collapsing shortly thereafter and having to be carried to the awards podium by her coach. Her injury took her out of the individual round competition for which she had earlier qualified. This was the stuff of sports legend, just like Curt Schilling's immortal 2004 "bloody sock" performance, rallying the Red Sox to an improbable comeback against the New York Yankees in the ALCS, followed up with the Red Sox' first World Series win in decades.
- Sorry to see the defending men's beach volleyball champions Todd Rogers and Phil Dalhausser eliminated in straight sets by a young Italian pair (which had beaten them twice in the past). Earlier play advanced the previously unbeaten Americans in preliminary round action into the single elimination tournament, while the 1-2 Italians barely qualified. The match wasn't really close: Rogers was clearly hurting (hamstring issue during the prior day's match) and Dalhausser's blocking performance was flat compared to other matches. The Americans simply had no answer to Nicolai's spikes. (To be honest, if I had been the Italians, I would have targeted Rogers more than they did; he was tentative at the net and noticeably sensitive in landing.) Rogers had flashes of brilliance in the second set as the Americans fought from behind to tie. Rogers, in his Olympics swan song, and Dalhausser were worthy champions and had no excuses for their performance: if you can't win a set against a 1-2 team, you don't deserve the gold.
8.3%? No: 8.254%
When the Obama Administration is quibbling over the unemployment rate being rounded up. This has been the longest stretch of 8.x% or above official unemployment since the Depression; the Administration is having problems just getting back to their starting position in terms of jobs, never mind accommodating the millions of new labor force entrants (of over 100K people a month) during Obama's past 4 years. One thing is a lock: with declining GDP growth, employers in general aren't looking to take on new employees. With the general election only 3 months away, Obama is clearly running out of time to make his case for reelection; I don't know where the necessary job growth will come from. Even if Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke makes another move, there's often a lag in the effects of monetary policy, and I think the market is already anticipating a move.
I didn't flag second quarter GDP numbers earlier in the blog, but this is from the Commerce Department briefing:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2012, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.And here is this morning's announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, followed by Household Summary A:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing. Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3 percent) were essentially unchanged in July. Both measures have shown little movement thus far in 2012.
| Category | July 2011 | May 2012 | June 2012 | July 2012 | 6/12-7/12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civilian noninstitutional population | 239671 | 242966 | 243155 | 243354 | 199 |
| Civilian labor force | 153358 | 155007 | 155163 | 155013 | -150 |
| Participation rate | 64 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.7 | -0.1 |
| Employed | 139450 | 142287 | 142415 | 142220 | -195 |
| Employment-population ratio | 58.2 | 58.6 | 58.6 | 58.4 | -0.2 |
| Unemployed | 13908 | 12720 | 12749 | 12794 | 45 |
| Unemployment rate | 9.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 0.1 |
| Not in labor force | 86313 | 87958 | 87992 | 88340 | 348 |
On the good side for the Obama Administration, they can argue that nonfarm employment went up higher than expected (after 3 months of sub-100K growth). They can also argue that over the past year, almost every statistic in the above table is better. However, we really want to see something like 3% growth to make inroads on the job front. It's hard to miss the fact that the labor force participation continues to erode: we have 2 million more not included in the labor force year-over-year.
Political Humor
Olympic organizers are reportedly struggling to fill rows and rows of empty seats. Empty seats! In fact, yesterday officials put out a casting call asking for 200 Europeans or eight Americans. - Conan O'Brien
[No doubt someone started a rumor that Barack Obama was going to make an appearance... I believe that he was scheduled to receive an Olympics Honorary Gold Medal for Golf in promoting the sport, finding the time to put in over 100 rounds of golf with all the other things on his plate, like an anemic economy, the BP oil spill, etc.]
An original:
- Olympic gold medal swimmer Ryan Lochte admitted leaking in the London Olympic swimming pool; the Obama White House denied leaking in the White House Press pool.
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| HT Casey Research |
Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons, "Walk Like a Man"
