You must keep sending work out;
you must never let a manuscript do nothing
but eat its head off in a drawer.
You send that work out again and again,
while you're working on another one.
If you have talent,
you will receive some measure of success
but only if you persist.
Isaac Asimov
Houston City Council Plays 'Obama Says'
Charities need the local government's approval to give food away to homeless people (HT Carpe Diem):
Houston City Council voted to require all organizations get written consent from the city before camping out and feeding the homeless [effective July 1]. At Tuesday's city council meeting, protestors collected over 30,000 signatures to place the issue on the November ballot. Houston Mayor Annise Parker said the city secretary would have to verify all names.We need bureaucrats and lawmakers to get out of the way of people trying to help others in need.
The Akin Kerfuffle:
"It's the Economy, Stupid!"
I'm posted about this incident earlier this election season: during the 1990 Texas gubernatorial general campaign (while I was still on faculty at UTEP), rancher/oilman Republican Clayton Williams was a political phenom and probably changed American history. (Why did I say the latter? George W. Bush would not have run for governor in 1994 against an incumbent Ann Richards.)
When a rare Republican incumbent Bill Clements decided not to run for reelection, Clayton Williams ran a "good old boy" campaign, blowing past the GOP field, including former conservative Democrat Congressman Kent Hance, whom notably defeated challenger George W. Bush in the latter's first public campaign. Ann ("George HW Bush was born with a silver spoon in his mouth") Richards, the Democratic nominee, was trailing badly in the polls.
Then came a careless moment: with his campaign travel temporarily halted in a rainstorm, Williams made a shockingly bad analogy, comparing the experience to rape: loosely paraphrased: if you can't do anything about it, you might as well relax and enjoy the experience. Whereas Williams made other stupid mistakes as well (e.g., refusing to shake Ann Richards' hand at a debate, a major faux pas in Texas politics), the gaffe was enough to tilt campaign momentum to his principal, female opponent. Richards' victory was by no means a landslide (she won by 3 points); however, make no mistake: this election was Williams to lose, and he did so because he lacked discipline and common sense as an inexperienced politician. I had moved to Illinois over the summer to take a 1-year appointment as a visiting professor at Illinois State; I would have still supported Williams over Richards, but it did not surprise me that Richards beat Williams.
Why was I not surprised? John Tower was elected to new Vice President LBJ's Senate seat after the 1960 election, the first major GOP statewide officeholder since Reconstruction. Bill Clements won the first of 3 battles against liberal former Attorney General Mark White in 1978, making him the first GOP governor since Reconstruction; White won the rematch in a sagging Texas economy in 1982, but Clements won the rubber match in 1986. It seems impossible to believe today, since the Republicans have held both Senate seats and the governor's mansion since 1994 and has only voted for 1 Democrat for President in the last 10 Presidential elections (Carter in 1976).
My personal opinion is that Tower's initial (special election) campaign holds the answer: the real elections until then had been between the conservative and liberal Democrats: Tower ran a campaign linking interim Senator William Blakley, a conservative Democrat, to the liberal JFK Administration, winning a plurality (roughly a third of the vote), while Blakley and 3 other Democrats split the remaining votes. But I think where the fortunes of the GOP turned in Texas was in the fate of "boll weevil" conservative Democrats whom aligned themselves with President Reagan and the GOP on economic issues. Finding themselves increasingly isolated and marginalized by the national party, many of the "boll weevils" switched parties. Lloyd Bentsen, who ousted a liberal Democrat incumbent during the 1970 US Senate primary and then defeated George HW Bush in the fall election, was probably the last conservative Democrat of note on the statewide level, although his views moderated over his terms in office, rating a 62% or so ACU rating (certainly well to the right of any current Democratic US Senator).
Why Missouri Congressman Todd Akin, a Tea Party caucus member who had just won the GOP primary to face liberal incumbent US Senator Claire McCaskill, fell into the typical social liberal trap of discussing one of the unlikely circumstances of pregnancy (i.e., rape or life of the mother), I don't know. I just wrote a commentary in yesterday's post, pointing out that the Tea Party coalition took a back seat (and was split on) cultural issues like immigration, "gay marriage", and abortion. Going into this past weekend every poll I saw had McCaskill losing to her GOP challengers: why any male politician would even dare to comment on rape when he's running against a female candidate? It's like a political death wish. I'll discuss the issue in more detail below.
And then use the phrase "legitimate rape"? One naturally starts to wonder about "illegitimate" rape. Again, why would you even open that door? Are you calling into question the veracity of victims you've never met?
One has to admire how quickly the GOP has responded to this and other controversies (e.g., the Craigslist shirtless Congressman). The Romney campaign immediately distanced themselves. Prominent media conservatives (Ann Coulter and Sean Hannity) have called on Akin to withdraw. At least $5M have been pulled from party and/or PAC funding sources. Senate campaign chair John Cornyn (R-TX) and Senate Minority Leader McConnell are urging him to step aside. The RNC chair also wants him to step aside and doesn't want him at the convention. Even the Tea Party Express has withdrawn support.
Akin who has attempted to apologize is vowing to fight on, saying that he is not a quitter. But he has until tomorrow afternoon to decide to withdraw to enable another GOP candidate to appear on the ballot. I'm sure that Akin thought with a nearly 10 point lead over McCaskill in a recent poll and a hard-fought primary victory earlier this month that the Senate seat was his. But he should have known better: the fact is that unless he leaves, McCaskill has now been given an opening to turn this race which should be on the lousy economy and make it one on women's issues; no matter what, Akin is now going to be on the defensive for the remaining 2.5 months of the campaign, progressive/feminist ad money is going to pour into the state exploiting this unexpected vulnerability. Obama is already moving to politically exploit the opening (i.e., "rape is rape") and trying to nationalize the issue. The GOP cannot allow this to happen. I would be very surprised to see him still in the race by close of business tomorrow. Akin has to take one for the team. How hard are you willing to fight for a Senate seat where you're not respected or wanted by your own caucus? It would be a Pyrrhic victory.
Speaking as a pro-lifer, how would I approach the issue of abortion for the US Senate?
- Regulation of abortion activities has been a traditional police function, assumed by local and state government, not the federal government.
- Given constitutional benchmarks for passing a pro-life amendment, it is unlikely a proposed amendment would pass with the necessary votes in either chamber of Congress.
- A US Senator can best serve a pro-life agenda by continuing to restrict taxpayer funding and by confirming nominees to SCOTUS and other federal courts whom respect the balance of powers and do not use the sham metaphor of a "living Constitution" to impose their personal values on the Constitution.
What about the subject of rape and pregnancy? Rape is a serious violation of a woman's unalienable rights and fundamentally unacceptable. When a woman becomes pregnant as the result of criminal sexual assault, we need to respect any difficult decision that she makes early in pregnancy. However, we need to remember that the rate of pregnancy from forcible rape is fairly low (1 or 2 of every thousand, with rapes estimated between 80,000-170,000 per year, in the context of 3 million births, 1.5M abortions, and 500,000 miscarriages a year).
Political Potpourri
- Mitt Romney Backs Fed Audit: Thumbs UP! This was a no-brainer: the vote was overwhelmingly bipartisan in the House; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who once openly called for a Fed audit, is preventing a vote (which he wouldn't be doing if Obama wanted the audit to happen; I'm convinced the last thing Obama wants is for the Fed to back off currently lax monetary policy). This blog has been a critic of Fed policy, and a "real" audit is long overdue.
- Is the Obama Campaign Strategy Working? Intrade currently has the odds of reelection at 57%. Some believe that the stock market is a reliable indicator of election outcomes, and the Dow Jones is up about 8.6% this year. I have not seen an electoral projection to date with Romney going over the magic 270 electoral vote point, even with Romney winning a good share of close national polls. So what's the good news for Romney? First, it looks like Romney will have a money edge heading down the home stretch. Second, I think the negative ads are not working as well as the Obama campaign has hoped. I think the bottom line is that enough people are worried about Obama's lack of success in dealing with the economy (right or wrong), and they think Romney brings a different perspective to the office. Third, Obama seems stuck in the mid-40 to high-40 approval range, and he's running out of playing time for good economic numbers to show up. The thing I'm worried about most? A wildcard event like, say, Israel attacking Iran and unspecified threats about Iranian counterattacks against US targets. I think a lot depends on the nature and extent of what would happen. We could have a traditional "rally behind the Commander in Chief" response; on the other hand, the global oil supply is affected resulting in a global economic crisis (with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz) or there are unexpected domestic tragedies, Obama could find himself losing in a landslide election.
I often get unsolicited forwarded emails from friends or family members; some of these have a political theme. Many of these are populist in nature, e.g., those hypocritical Congressmen whom don't eat their own dog food (e.g., apply federal employment rules to their own staffs), vote themselves raises and plush benefits while the middle class barely scrapes by, etc. Others might deal with a prospective judicial prohibition of religious content displays (e.g., the Ten Commandments or crosses) in public areas, on currency, in national pledges, etc.
A lot of populist conservatives get agitated by Obama's promoting "African Americans for Obama". They see this as hypocritical, noting that the mainstream media would go ballistic over "Whities for Romney". Look, I'm sure that there are a lot of people whom think I'm racist because I criticize the current President, whose father was from Kenya. The facts are that I've been an equal opportunity critic of progressives, I have on occasion agreed with Obama, I have worked with many people of color over the years (in fact, a couple of black DBA's in the past have served as personal references), I've personally known and befriended biracial couples, and I don't worry about what other people do or say. If Obama announced tomorrow that he's abandoned his progressive beliefs and now was a libertarian, I would reexamine him.
As for the populists: don't sweat the small stuff.
Political Humor
President Obama said today he is sticking with Joe Biden. Which means one of two things — either he thinks Biden is doing a good job or Hillary said no. - Jay Leno
[Or Biden caught Obama smoking after he told Michelle that he quit...]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Hodgson/Supertramp,"Breakfast in America"
