Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world.
Arthur Schopenhauer
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Steps Down
"In these grave circumstances that the country is passing through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to leave his position as president of the republic. He has mandated the Armed Forces Supreme Council to run the state. God is our protector and succor." - Egyptian VP Omar SuleimanFirst, I want to point out what I wrote in my February 3 post:
What happens now? I can only speculate... The military may decide it's not willing to risk ongoing chaos and its own public support to keep Mubarak in office another 8 months, find some constitutional way to make VP Suleiman the interim leader and possibly impose some version of martial law until the September elections.In yesterday's post I said:
My guess is that the military will step out of the shadows, confirm a transfer of essential powers from Mubarak, establish some deadlines and milestones for constitutional reforms and guarantee fair elections this September.Of course, I made some ancillary statements that didn't play out (to date), e.g., the military might move to prevent crowd gatherings or disperse them. What happened over the last 24 hours or so was very confusing; after early reports implied Mubarak was stepping down and/or headed out of the city, in effect an internal exile, there was that speech where he clearly swerved the expectant crowd--which I immediately realized would not go over well. The speech came across to me as somewhat condescending, defensive, and defiant. It was an out-of-touch ruler whom not only misjudged the protesters, but his own military backing, when it was obvious that the military was reluctant to crack down on the protesters from the get-go. Mubarak had already agreed not to stand for reelection this September. Whereas I was sympathetic to Mubarak remaining in a largely ceremonial role, it was obvious to me that the military was prepared to throw Mubarak under the bus. If the speech had any choice of being successful, Mubarak would have had make it clear that he had relinquished irrevocably any and all functional powers of the Presidency to VP Suleiman, that he was immediately lifting the emergency law,and that he would spend his remaining time in office working on transition plans and in an as-needed capacity. It would have been also helpful if he admitted that he had made some mistakes in judgment and should have implemented democratic reforms earlier.
But to be honest, that probably wouldn't have been enough. For example, I think Suleiman was being perceived as a Mubarak crony; for the transition to work, it would have been necessary for the military to make it clear that they, not Mubarak, had selected Suleiman, and I also think that Suleiman would have had to establish a degree of separation from Mubarak, e.g., by criticizing the emergency rule and making its lifting his first priority.
I will point out that the military communication today went out of their way to provide Mubarak with a dignified exit by acknowledging his decades of national service.
Why did I predict what in fact actually happened today, a variation of a military coup? It became clear to me that a "radioactive" Mubarak's actions, including selecting a VP, could be perceived as self-serving. Even if Mubarak resigned, the people might perceive Suleiman as Mubarak's crony or puppet. I observed several incidents prior to today where a large number crowd members were shouting for Suleiman to also step aside. It was simply unthinkable that the military would allow a chain of uprisings with all new leaders tainted by Mubarak.
I was fully annoyed by Fox News coverage. The fact that Shep Smith, a populist anchor, was unabashedly promoting the cause of the protesters, even after Mubarak had named a VP, had resigned from the ruling party, etc. was hardly surprising, but daytime anchor Megyn Kelly, a trained lawyer, seemed puzzled and prosecutory, trying to make sense of Mubarak ceding certain powers to Suleiman (which powers, why not all powers, etc.) Are you kidding me? How could Kelly not understand the context? This was all about maintaining a face-saving role for Mubarak as President. Of course, Suleiman had been ceded all powers of the Presidency, but for face-saving purposes, it was necessary to Mubarak to maintain some vaguely defined authority.
I also want to point out that I was never a fan of Mubarak. Here's a relevant quote from Sunday's post:
I do [not] support the authoritarian nature of [Mubarak's] rule or his record (beyond his honoring the peace treaty with Israel and his support during the War on Terror). In fact, I'm rather dismayed by the fact that at least 8 members of Hamas somehow managed to "escape" during the crisis and return to Gaza.In fact, though, I think that the issue of the protesters wasn't Mubarak personally, but as a scapegoat for other issues. For example, I heard a snippet from a Muslim woman complaining about the fact she has a university degree but hasn't been able to find a job. In addition, Egypt, once known as the breadbasket in the Roman world, now has to import a huge amount of wheat. The global economic environment is very challenging, and anyone who thinks that the Egyptian revolution will suddenly make Egypt self-sufficient in food supplies or find a hidden supply of well-paying jobs has unrealistic expectations.
I don't want to underestimate the historic significance of the forced Mubarak resignation, but to me--as I have increasingly noted over the past week, the resistance against Mubarak is the easy part: building a functional, sustainable democratic republic with multiple political parties and suitable candidates in time for the September elections is the tough part. Let us recall Robert Redford's signature line from "The Candidate":
This Isn't Your Typical Obama Budget...: Thumbs UP!
Republican leaders tonight unveiled a $60B (or $100B in proposed Obama money) spending cut scheme with about 80% coming from non-defense programs. Whereas that's a promising first step (and I'm not sure to what, if any, of the following tests have been followed), I would have preferred a simpler, across-the-board spending cuts (including entitlements), e.g., 10% from fiscal 2011 targets, government streamlining reforms, government layoffs or freezes and paycuts for federal employees earning over $100K. I would also like to see significant regulatory sunsets.
But let us also remember House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, whom is willing to demagogue spending cuts at the drop of a hat:
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi called the Republican plan “irresponsible,” saying it “threatens jobs and economic growth, hampers our global competitiveness and harms the people hurting most: working families and the middle class.”Under what perverted economic theory is a first step towards federal discipline, on a day when the IMF is calling for a currency alternative to the US dollar, "hampering our global competitiveness"? How does living within our means threaten "jobs and economic growth"? What spending cuts harm "working families and the middle class"? This, among other things, assumes that existing programs are effectual and efficiently run and the overhead is minimal.
Political Humor
A few originals:
- MIT economist Jonathan Gruber has decided to write an ObamaCare comic book: "Health Care Reform: What It Is, Why It’s Necessary, How it Works". As if kids are going to read a 2000-page comic book, even if it is pure fiction.... No doubt Gruber will next hit the road with his magic act: he's going to pull that ObamaCare budget surplus out of his tophat....
- Well, former Congressman Chris Lee sent the 34-year-old single woman posting on Craigslist his shirtless picture to show exactly why that reporter said that the 'sun glinted off his chiseled pectorals'...
The Bee Gees, "Nights on Broadway". A faithful reader knows "Tragedy" is my favorite disco-era Bee Gees' hit. Only the Bee Gees' fusion of disco with melody and harmony could make radio worth listening to during the disco era. This track, which introduced Barry's falsetto in the disco era, particularly captivates me because the bridging verses (below) come across to me as their original soft rock style "song-within-a-song", a fusion of their own musical styles. Absolutely glorious!
I will wait ...
Even if it takes forever
I will wait ...
Even if it takes a lifetime
Somehow I feel inside
You never ever left my side
Make it like it was before
Even if it takes a lifetime, takes a lifetime
