It is the nature of man to rise to greatness
if greatness is expected of him.
John Steinbeck
The Egypt Crisis: A Fascinating Twist
I watch most of this unfold on Fox News today. I was intrigued by the fact that the Egyptian constitution did not provide for the Vice President to succeed the President; it had been very clear by the fact that Mubarak named a VP under pressure from the military, and the fact that Suleiman was negotiating with the opposition made it obvious that Suleiman was the de facto president, while Mubarak was left with a face-saving title. At the same time, one is seeing the Egyptian army playing good cop to the police force's bad cop. You feel that the protesters should realize that Mubarak, in fact, is the product of the Egyptian military and gets his power from them and this love-the-military, hate-Mubarak standpoint is fundamentally inconsistent.
The response of the protesters has been emboldened by the fact the military hasn't imposed order--yet. The facts that Mubarak was retiring later this year, his son would not stand for election, and they had resigned from the ruling party has not quiesced the protesters; instead, the opposition has gotten more strident, demanding the immediate resignation of Mubarak and treating Suleiman and the rest of the new cabinet as little more than Mubarak's personal stooges and fundamentally unacceptable.
This cannot end well--for the protesters. The military has been quietly repeating to the protesters the time has come to end the protests. And quite frankly, I am no longer supporting the protesters. I've been very clear about my support for democratic reforms with guaranteed individual/minority rights; I think they've already won that battle. My position is that the protesters should look at the September change election and engage in constructive behavior (e.g., setting up political parties, nominating candidates, etc.) I see very little reward to the risk of pointless protests (Mubarak is essentially a figurehead now and the reward is mostly symbolic: humiliating Mubarak and disallowing a dignified transition from power)
There were rumors all day--that Mubarak would resign, rewarding the uncompromising crowds and setting a bad precedent both for Egypt plus the remainder of the Middle East. Or the military would stage a coup. But to be absolutely honest, I never bought for a second the reports that implied that Mubarak had capitulated to the demands of the protesters. The interesting thing was how they decided to deal with a transitional transfer of power to the VP versus of working through constitutional constraints.
It's not clear how this will be resolved. It's difficult to see how the military, which has implicitly approved the steps Mubarak has taken, would admit to making a mistake. My guess is that the military will step out of the shadows, confirm a transfer of essential powers from Mubarak, establish some deadlines and milestones for constitutional reforms and guarantee fair elections this September. I expect the military to start to break up the crowds by perhaps closing off the public square in the morning and using nonlethal means if necessary.
Bachmann on the Patriot Act Extension
The Obama Administration specifically asked for extension of 3 expiring provisions: (1) roving "John Doe" wiretaps, (2) foreign "lone wolf" provision, and (3) the "business records" provision. A roving wiretap enables tracking of a person or facility across communication devices (e.g., disposable cellphones); the "John Doe" aspect (which is the more serious issue) lacks transparency as to the identification of the person or facility. The foreign "lone wolf" provision allows tracking of foreign visitors, with or without any known affiliation to terrorist groups. The "business records" provision enabling gathering of information not necessarily linked to terrorist activities (say, for instance, contacts with lawyers).
I saw a Fox News interview where Congresswoman Bachmann (R-MN), the leader of the Tea Party caucus, was specifically asked about the fact that several Tea Party Caucus members failed to support the procedural vote yesterday to suspend the rules (fast-track authority to extending these elements of the Patriot Act). Bachmann basically appealed to expertise (i.e., her membership on the Intelligence Committee), suggested that perhaps the caucus members erroneously thought they were renewing the entire Patriot Act, versus the 3 provisions specified above, and she hadn't had an opportunity to educate them accordingly. (Personally, I find her response condescending and inappropriate.)
The issue has more to do with transparency of operations, consistent policy across contexts, and relevant judicial reviews protecting individual rights. In fact, the Obama Administration realizes that some safeguards of individual liberties may be in order, so long as they don't adversely effect effectiveness of the provisions. The basic points I don't think have been addressed include: (1) the "John Doe" nature of roving wiretaps (the law in other contexts would be suitably constrained); (2) under international law we are obligated to extend the same basic rights for foreign visitors; (3) records not directly related to criminal or terrorist activity might impair basic rights to counsel or rights of privacy which I believe are guaranteed by the Ninth Amendment.
Now unless there have been significant safeguards implemented for these provisions (which I doubt), we are facing the same constitutional issues raised against the Patriot Act as a whole...
And Now--Spitballing Among
Possible GOP Presidential Contenders
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), a Fox News contributor, was asked about fellow Fox News contributor Sarah "I Quit" Palin's curious decision to turn down the plum keynote speaker slot at CPAC, the annual gathering sponsored by the American Conservative Union (whose voting benchmarks I regularly reference in my posts). One explanation is that Palin is feuding with one or more CPAC organizers. Santorum suggested that Palin, who has been milking her high profile since her failed 2008 VP bid for lucrative book and television deals and appearance fees, had more lucrative opportunities elsewhere. Palin, displaying her characteristic grace and willingness to take the higher road, responded, "I will not call him the knuckle dragging Neanderthal that perhaps others would want to call him. I’ll let his wife call him that instead." Hmmm. Santorum did not call Palin an incompetent political opportunist, demagogue and failed governor and national candidate, although perhaps others, including myself, would want to call her.
Sarah Palin gave a lame excuse as to why she has continued to avoid CPAC since the 2008 election. Any regular reader to this blog knows that I have been a persistent critic of Sarah Palin; she has a certain populist charisma, but she lacks a distinctive, cohesive, substantive, constructive agenda, she is a polarizing force whom can't attract the moderates and independents necessary to defeat an incumbent President, she has a record of earmarks, spending splurges and corporate tax hikes, she has knowingly misrepresented her record (e.g., her support for the Bridge to Nowhere), she has been caught up in various, independently-verified ethics issues (e.g., Troopergate, a legal defense PAC, and repayment of family travel expenses), and she lacks the knowledge, experience, judgment and temperament necessary to be the Chief Executive. Yeah, I know: some reader out there wants to ask me how I really feel about Sarah Palin...
I realize that the politically correct point of view is that any criticism of a female politician is necessarily considered "sexist". In fact, I would start with more female conservative politicians like Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): a highly intelligent, competent idea person like Newt Gingrich or Paul Ryan with Ronald Reagan's optimism, humor, and charm and the steely leadership of an American Margaret Thatcher.
Political Humor
President Obama hosted Republican leaders for lunch at the White House. Obama had to do without salt, bread, pepper, and butter, but not for health reasons. The Republicans refused to pass anything. - Jay Leno
[Not true. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to bring the full House-approved lunch bill up for a floor vote.]
An original:
- Donald Trump made a self-promoting appearance at CPAC today. He is considering a possible Presidential bid next year. A $14T national debt? Who is better qualified to work America through a national bankruptcy? He's got even more experience than Barack Obama in pushing private-sector businesses through bankruptcies and firing executives....
The Bee Gees, "You Win Again". This track was a huge post-disco era hit in Europe, but the song barely charted in the US in the disco saturation backlash. (In fact, I never heard the song when it was released.)
