A great pilot can sail even when his canvas is torn.
Seneca
You Read It Here First
In my January 19 post, I had this to say about Harry Reid's vow that the House repeal would never reach a Senate floor vote:
But let me point out that McConnell seems confident a vote will occur, and McConnell is not one to make idle threats. I do know that the House Republicans will have a lot to say about any legislation that gets to the President (including budgets and funding for ObamaCare), the large Senate minority has the ability to block almost any legislation Reid wants to pass and to offer amendmentsIn today's news, Minority Leader McConnell announced that he will offer an ObamaCare repeal amendment to an FAA reauthorization bill.
In Sunday's post I wrote:
I would look for a face-saving way for President Mubarak to announce his intent not to run for reelection, not now, but at some unspecified time of his choosing, prior to the next scheduled Presidential election.Yesterday I said the following:
[The fact that the new Vice President Omar Suleiman is negotiating reforms with opposition parties] is a strong indication that Mubarak is de facto transitioning out of power; the only question is when, not if, he leaves the Presidency.Today President Mubarak announced his decision not to run for reelection. I thought his speech under the circumstances was very classy, although a little defensive and self-serving at times. A number of protesters, of course, are not satisfied: they smell blood and feel that the momentum is on their side. They want him out now. I honestly think it is in the best interests of the country that Mubarak stay for a period of transition; it has nothing to do with not appreciating the pain that a large, poor population are dealing with in dealing with soaring food prices or the restlessness and sense of powerless in circumstances beyond their control felt by many, if not most Egyptians. Keep in mind Mubarak has just named his first VP and reshuffled his Cabinet; we are talking about changes to the Egyptian constitution and electoral reforms. Mubarak has strong connections with the US and Israel, and concerns about Islamist influence in an emerging government would put at risk relationships within the region and with Western democracies. It would be prudent to project some stability to the outside world and a smooth transition of power. Keep in mind that the American system provides 2.5 months between the Presidential election and inauguration.
Will President Mubarak actually stay in office until the new elections? Well, I remember last week I said I thought Mubarak might be able survive this challenge, but it was very clear from over the weekend that the Egyptian armed forces were not prepared to handle the crowds the way the Iranian theocracy brutally cracked down on the Green Revolution. At this point, I'm not sure that Mubarak will remain for the remainder of his term, despite my argument above. I suspect that the military or other allies might be willing to throw Mubarak under the bus if necessary.
What's curious is for many of the Fox News contributors and/or anchors (e.g., Charles Krauthammer and Bill O'Reilly), Mubarak can't leave fast enough. The populist Bill O'Reilly basically thinks Mubarak's decision not to run again (which was to them as obvious as my announcing I will not seek the GOP Presidential nomination next year) is the result of American pressure, and O'Reilly said that Obama should order Mubarak to leave right now. Yeah, Bill, portraying the Egyptian President as little more than an American puppet is a way of winning friends and influencing people in the Middle East.
There will be enough time to do a post-audit later, but let me point out that a year and a half after Obama's worldwide address to Muslims, the Middle East has exploded in instability as a sort of contagion which has resulted just today in Jordan's King Abdullah II dismissing the prime minister and his cabinet. Just over the last few weeks: Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, even Syria. (And don't forget the risks of the crown jewel of the region: Saudi Arabia). Since Obama or Clinton were obviously caught flatfooted, why was that the case? How effective is our intelligence, and how proactive has been this President's foreign policy? Over 2 years in office and how has he transformed the region beyond high-sounding rhetoric? Talk is cheap... With oil now topping $100/barrel (at least North Sea oil). How does your anti-oil exploration stand sound now? Surging oil prices will sap consumer disposable income and could trigger another recession... Obama may end up hearing "drill, baby, drill" all over again.
Miscellaneous Notable Excerpts
- Health Care
Two major features of the current system almost guarantee explosive growth. First, most Americans don’t pay directly for their health care, which is financed by employer-sponsored insurance or the government through Medicare and Medicaid. That plus the fact that it’s “my life” that’s involved means that, except for deductibles and co-pays, there’s no restraint on usage. Many participate in what we call “recreational medicine”—take a day off from work at full pay to visit a physician, at employer expense, because of a minor ailment. Second, in paying for service plans, medical providers have many incentives to perform extra procedures because more office visits enhance their incomes. Defensive medicine with more procedures is also encouraged to avoid litigation over mistakes.And, Mr. Shilling, what do you make of the smoke-and-mirrors accounting behind the Democratic Party Health Care Law?
But history suggests that the government is underestimating the growth in health care outlays. In 1967, the year after Medicare commenced, the House Ways and Means Committee forecast its cost at $12 billion in 1990. It turned out to be $110 billion—nine times as much.
- Oil Supply
- Public Pension Crisis
Michigan Governor Rick Snyder published a 20-page report today explaining his state's budget problems in layman's terms. Michigan faces a $1.5 billion deficit for 2011. Total government debt is more than $70 billion and unfunded costs for pension and retiree health care adds another $55 billion.
What does Governor Snyder blame for Michigan's fiscal crisis? It's not that the rich aren't paying enough in taxes... It's public sector wages and benefits. Snyder's report shows the average state employee's wages increased 19% over the past decade while private sector wages fell 13%. Meanwhile, its workforce is aging, debt is increasing, and spending regularly exceeds income.
- Social Security
Finally, I picked up this excerpt from a recent dividend.com email:
As a country, we are getting older. In 2010, around 16% of the population is 62 or older -- and most are eligible for Social Security. By 2020, though, 20% of the population will be 62, and that number will swell to 30% in 2030! Where is the money going to come from to pay for the retirement benefits of so many additional seniors?
People's faith in the Social Secutiy system is rapidly dwindling. 60% of non-retired U.S. adults do not believe the Social Security system will ever pay them a single benefit when they do retire. Meanwhile, 56% of current retirees believe their Social Security benefits will be cut.Political Humor
"A Washington Post columnist is proposing February be a Sarah Palin-free month. You know a better month? November 2012." –Jay Leno
[Sarah Palin rejects the suggestion that she give away her sage advice for free; after all, she has to make a living. Her appearance fees are rumored to be around $75K; she has a multi-year contract with Fox News; look for an upcoming DVD release of TLC's "Sarah Palin's Alaska!", with previously unseen footage; her two books are at fine booksellers everywhere, and, of course, the soon-to-be-scheduled Pay-Per-View where she'll announce her 2012 plans. She wants to thank all the little people whom made it possible for her to achieve the American dream: John McCain...]
An original:
- Egyptian protesters are not happy with the US; no doubt they've been holding a grudge since the 1980's when a group of unveiled female singers stereotyped the way that they walk...
Musical Interlude: One-Hit Wonders/Instrumentals
Gloria Gaynor, "I Will Survive"
