I believe that all government is evil,
and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.
HL Mencken
Obama: Be Careful Of What You Wish For
I'm fascinated with current Fox News coverage of the Egypt coverage, which is heavily slanted in favor of the anti-Mubarak standpoint and sympathetic to those demanding the immediate resignation and/or exile of Mubarak. I have also heard Fox News contributors from conservative journals National Review and the Weekly Standard (on Hannity and Special Report, respectively) derisively dismissing the idea of Mubarak serving out the rest of his term. There are a number of related threads: downplaying the relevance of the Muslim Brotherhood; attempts to link violence to paid pro-Mubarak sources; the predominantly secular nature of the protesters, anecdotal violence or perceived suppression of the foreign press, etc. One of the recurring talking points is how former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's jawboning the Egyptian leadership over political reform years ago and contrasting that with the Obama Administration's low-profile approach. Where's the reporting of the fact that protest leaders are refusing to negotiate with the new vice president until if and when Mubarak has resigned in the short run?
To be sure, there are a few commentators, not exactly Mubarak supporters, expressing concern about the Muslim Brotherhood, a decidedly left-wing political agenda (e.g., so-called social justice), and the intrinsic high risk associated with early elections. But, and I'm astonished at how few journalists and commentators have reported on this, doesn't anyone remember how a slavish devotion to democratic principles resulted in the election of an Hamas government in the Gaza Strip and almost immediately a shower of rockets into Israel? And, in reference to the talking point about the alleged secular foundation of the protesters, the protests were triggered by Friday morning prayers?
I'm concerned about Obama's fair-weather-friend policy, almost immediately after Mubarak's announcing he would not stand for reelection, pressing for an immediate transition; it was an unconscionable treatment of a 3-decade ally which has provided a measure of stability in a volatile region of the world and an invaluable friend during the War on Terror. The press has reported that the Obama Administration is threatening to use military aid as a stick to interfere in Egyptian internal affairs (i.e., its preference in the nature of the transition).
What the Obama Administration is doing is not only inept and unproductive in the long run (e.g., unnecessarily pressuring the military: are there other places in the world looking to counter American leadership? Of course...), but by backing the Egyptian government into a corner, it is actually making the current situation more dangerous.
Consider the following underreported post excerpt by ABC This Week's Christiane Amanpour:
In Tahrir Square, protesters had been telling us two things. Some were saying that President Hosni Mubarak's announcement Tuesday night, in which he announced that he would not seek reelection, was not enough and that he has to go now. Others told us that although they have protested against him, they want him to leave in an orderly fashion, with dignity.A majority, it seemed, were concerned that if he left quickly, the economy and institutions could collapse, resulting in an explosion of crime and violence. If Mubarak leaves precipitously, there could be real chaos. Mubarak's party had been sending a message on state TV regarding moves to restore law and order. The army, in a new statement on television, had urged the protesters to go home, "for the love of Egypt."Amanpour then goes on to explain that the sentiment changed as pro-government supporters clashed with the protesters. In a subsequent exclusive interview, Mubarak echoes, in effect, the sentiments of the crowd above about anarchy if he left immediately. [For one thing, most Americans assume that the new VP would succeed Mubarak--not by the Egyptian constitution. So when the Obama Administration is pushing for the VP to succeed Mubarak, it is either incompetent in not knowing Egyptian law and culture, or it is meddling in internal Egyptian matters.]
Mubarak is a proud man, and I think any leader wants to leave with his dignity intact and wants a legacy to his leadership. Leaving with the nation gripped in chaos is not what any leader wants to leave office. What most people are discounting is the fact that the Egyptian military has been a source of leaders like Sadat and Mubarak. I think the military pressed Mubarak to announce he would not seek reelection (and subsequently that his son would not run for President). For the most part, the military enjoys popular support with the Egyptian people.
What happens now? I can only speculate. It may well be decided tomorrow with the "Day of Departure" protests. The military may decide it's not willing to risk ongoing chaos and its own public support to keep Mubarak in office another 8 months, find some constitutional way to make VP Suleiman the interim leader and possibly impose some version of martial law until the September elections.
The Rule of Law vs. Obama
US District Judge Martin Feldman yesterday held the Obama Administration in contempt for essentially reconstituting its drilling moratorium after the judge had ruled the moratorium unauthorized by federal law, a violation of the balance of powers.
Social Security and Number Crunching
Most project managers understand the impact of design errors: the longer it takes to detect a design error (e.g., implementation stage), the more expensive to resolve. A similar phenomenon exists with program estimates. It's impossible, of course, to know when the reserve will disappear because we would need to be able to forecast something like economic growth decades in advance. Some argue that even modest differences in GDP (say, from expected 3% to 2.8%) would push the day of reckoning even earlier than 2037.
Nostalgic Moment
Yes, I realize that we just celebrated Christmas over a month ago. (What brought this to mind is I got a recent email promoting a retrospective of Red Skelton, one of our beloved clown/comedians.) This utterly charming skit was on a cherished family Christmas album; to people whom don't remember the referenced Cold War (before the dissolution of the USSR), the skit is dated and obscure, but it could easily be reworked to reference, say, a materialistic, self-absorbed culture.
Political Humor
A few originals:
- Punxsutawney Phil just predicted an early end to winter. And Joe Biden told unemployed people to just "hang in there"...
- There was a record snowfall in Chicago this week. But that pales in comparison to the snow job the Democrats in Washington are doing in defending last year's health care plan and insisting chronically underfunded entitlements are in good shape.
Thelma Houston, "Don't Leave This Way"
