The final test of a leader is that he leaves behind him in other men the conviction and will to carry on.
Walter J. Lippmann
Political Potpourri
Just an assortment of notes in the aftermath of the midterm elections:
- All the Maryland candidates I supported in my blog lost (for Congress, US Senate, and governor). You would hope under a tough economy (in fact, after Chris Christie and Scott Brown's victories) that a blue state like Maryland would be receptive, especially after former Governor Ehrlich left office in 2006 with an approval rate in the 50's and Martin O'Malley was behind a huge tax increase, which caused his approval rate to drop in the 30's. But many Presidents have also rebounded from big mid-term drops (e.g., Reagan and Clinton). O'Malley, other than running spots extolling his holding the line on college tuition (for transparent reasons) and taking credit for new high tech/green Maryland businesses, ran primarily a Blagojevich/attack dog campaign against Ehrlich, sneering at Ehrlich's substantive plan for Maryland's future (not that he countered with his own, of course), calling Ehrlich a lobbyist, and dismissing Ehrlich's attacks on O'Malley's unambiguous substantive tax-and-spend record as hypocritical and misleading (e.g., "user fees" versus taxes). Personally, I loved almost all of Ehrlich's commercials (which seemed as well done as Steele's Senate campaign in 2006, which featured some tongue-in-cheek ads with his sons). My main criticism was I think Ehrlich was slow to respond to O'Malley's negative ads and to a certain extent let O'Malley define him and frame the contest. But given the Democrats' dominant registration, O'Malley's incumbent status, and revived approval rating, I'm not sure Ehrlich could have pulled it out; he lost by 14, winning only 2 polls narrowly in early summer. As for the Mikulski-Wargotz battle, I never saw a single ad for Dr. Wargotz after the primary win and plenty of Mikulski ads; he didn't take the fight to Mikulski during their sole debate. Mirabile won 23% of the vote against Elijah Cummings, with a 0% rating from the ACU; when many black Democratic general election candidates attract 90% or more of the black vote and this is a 60% black district, it's very difficult for a centrist or conservative to win.
- Nancy Pelosi Wants To Be Minority Leader? Well, I had predicted in an earlier post that Steny Hoyer would be the new face of the Democrats after the landmark turnover election (as I write, ABC shows the count at 239-188, with 8 seats undecided). The reason is that I thought that Democrats would want to show symbolically that they heard the message of the American voters with respect to the wrong-headed progressive agenda, priorities, and effectiveness in dealing with the economy and would look to find agreement with the Republicans to tackle tough issues. Nancy Pelosi, of course, has announced her intent to run for Minority Leader. It's very clear she's going to be elected for a variety of reasons: (1) about half of the centrist/Blue Dog ranks lost during the election, and most progressives are elected from safe districts, so they are probably concerned more about principle than pragmatism, and Nancy Pelosi largely delivered on their progressive agenda; (2) Pelosi may be trying to position herself for a reversal in 2012, hoping for an improving economy to pave the way for Barack Obama's reelection with purple/red district coattails; the progressives now have the luxury of dissenting unconstructively where the GOP has to carry the water on highly unpopular austerity measures and/or entitlement reform, not to mention the unpopular nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan; (3) Steny Hoyer, the House Majority Leader, is the odd man out (i.e., the Speaker position), but instead of filing for Minority Leader, he's running for Minority Whip against the current Majority Whip, and James Clyburn. I never say never: after all, the Republicans recaptured the House for 2 one-term stints after WWII. But it's the magnitude of victory, there will probably a GOP-friendly pickup of seats in red/purple states like Texas and Florida as Census results become official, any pickup in the economy will be to the benefit of the GOP, and I don't think that people will forget why they turned away from Democratic leadership in 2 years' time. Some partisan Republicans are delighted; Nancy Pelosi has less than a 10% favorable rating, and she has become the figurehead of progressive extremism, much like George W. Bush became the face of Republicanism. I have often poked fun at Pelosi and deeply feel the agenda she was pursuing was not in the best long-term interests of the country, but she delivered on a number of tough votes. I didn't like the dishonorable treatment of President Bush by Barack Obama and others. In part, I think uncivil behavior doesn't help either party; the Republicans need to focus on providing effective leadership, not fighting with a Minority Leader. I think Pelosi has been a polarizing person whom explicitly rejected bipartisan overtures during her Senate tenure, and both parties have high unfavorable ratings. I think if John Boehner attempts to change the tone in the House, but Pelosi doesn't, it will probably cost the Democrats in future elections.
- GOP House Conference Chair: Jeb Hensarling, YES! Michele Bachmann, NO! Mike Pence is reportedly mulling over a possible bid as President or Indiana Governor and thus is not filing to run for another term as GOP House Conference Chair. There is a shootout going on between Texan Jeb Hensarling and Minnesota's Michele Bachmann, a strident red meat conservative populist, in the mold of Sarah Palin, both of them Tea Party Express favorites (along with Jim DeMint). I cannot condemn the polarizing behavior of Nancy Pelosi without similarly rejecting the same. Any faithful reader of this blog knows that I am a "big tent" conservative whom welcomes the active participation and support of moderate/independent Republicans. I largely agree with Bachmann and DeMint in terms of principles, but (along with Palin), I think their personal style and self-promotion are divisive. For Bachmann to run for a conference-wide slot after the Tea Party Express sniped a few prominent moderate GOP Senate candidates leading in the polls by statistically significant leads is pure chutzpah. I'm sure that the ideologues will call me a mainstream or establishment Republican. No, I was not born into wealth, I don't play golf at a country club, and I don't drive a Cadillac. I'm a problem solver, and I know how to count noses. Congressman Hensarling also has a 2009 100% by ACU ratings and has a lifetime rating of 98.81. No wonder why Tea Party favorite Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has endorsed him.
Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), just like the health care progressive Dems, want a universal "automatic" IRA; they have made it clear that individuals can't be trusted to save for their retirement and it is the role of government to tell companies what kinds of benefits they should provide to their employees and key parameters... Almost every company (even small ones) or institution I've worked for has had a 401K or 403B plan, and there are other alternatives. And, of course, the bill sponsors provide a prominent Treasury bond account..., because as any good progressive Democrat (except maybe Warren Buffett, George Soros, or Bill Gates) knows, investing is "gambling" (and they need money to keep their programs funded). People: stop the madness... just say 'no'. Companies will offer great benefits if that's what it takes to hire the workers they want... Ultimately, liberals simply don't trust the free enterprise system to work--but their regulations are typically counterproductive.
"The president is going to India. He’ll be traveling on Air Force One-Term." –David Letterman
[Obama knew he was in trouble when he discovered that Indians produce and consume more tea than any other country except China...The tea-sipping Indians in the welcoming party at the airport wanted Obama to feel at home, so they started chanting, "Two more years! Two more years!"]
"The government will pump an additional $600 billion into the economy. I guess they have to make up for what Meg Whitman isn’t spending anymore." –Jay Leno
[Fed Reserve Chair Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke was inspired by the title of a song he downloaded to his iPod; there's this great song from the 1980's--Dire Straits' "Money for Nothing".]
Musical Interlude: Instrumental/One-Hit Wonders
Kenny G, "Songbird"
"The president is going to India. He’ll be traveling on Air Force One-Term." –David Letterman
[Obama knew he was in trouble when he discovered that Indians produce and consume more tea than any other country except China...The tea-sipping Indians in the welcoming party at the airport wanted Obama to feel at home, so they started chanting, "Two more years! Two more years!"]
"The government will pump an additional $600 billion into the economy. I guess they have to make up for what Meg Whitman isn’t spending anymore." –Jay Leno
[Fed Reserve Chair Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke was inspired by the title of a song he downloaded to his iPod; there's this great song from the 1980's--Dire Straits' "Money for Nothing".]
Musical Interlude: Instrumental/One-Hit Wonders
Kenny G, "Songbird"
