I never expect to see a perfect work from imperfect man.
Alexander Hamilton
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The good news is that the October payrolls increased 151,000, seasonally adjusted, with additional adjustments of another 110,000 jobs over the prior 2 months. (By "seasonally adjusted", we normally exclude jobs of a cyclic nature which add noise to trend data, e.g., you might hire some farmhands at harvest time, sales help during the holidays or teacher hiring. The net gain largely reflected mining (including oil drilling) and service-related (temp, health care, and IT)). However, the official unemployment rate remains at 9.6% and 14.8M still remain unemployed, about 42% of which are long-term (more than half a year). This makes the average monthly payroll gain this year about 112,000 per month, which is barely the number needed just to accommodate new labor force entrants.
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| Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release 11/5/10 |
Liberal Keynesian economists like Krugman will insist that the issue has more to do with consumer demand and want to dump trillions on the economy. But in fact there is money lying on the sideline, include the highest savings rate in years, in part resulting from a lack of confidence in national leadership and the implications of fiscal irresponsibility, including inflation and higher taxes, no matter what lip service from politicians.
Donald Trump, You've Fired From My POTUS List! THUMBS DOWN!
Greta Van Susteren had a two-part interview with Donald Trump this week; while he did not announce intentions to run as President, he clearly implied that he was thinking about it, as he lashed out at policyholders for doing nothing about huge trade imbalance with China. (Apparently he hasn't heard NY Senator Schumer trying to pass some similarly misguided currency-exchange bill.) Trump implies that the unemployment problem can be attributed to our exporting jobs to China and said, using as anecdotal example, that Chinese building suppliers he deals with can't believe how much they can get away with in selling their goods in the US. Along the way he cites The Wharton School (a prestigious business school at the University of Pennsylvania) where he earned his undergraduate degree in a rather pretentious argument from authority. I wonder what the business school thinks of its alumnus' advocacy of trade protectionist policies...
Donald, the last time I checked, your areas of expertise are developing overpriced real estate properties and golf courses, not manufacturing, not toys and other consumer goods. There are a number of relevant points to make. First, trade wars/protectionism are counterproductive and can risk the jobs of the workers for American exporters. Second, the shedding of jobs in American manufacturing has more to do with a long-term trend of increasing efficiency in American manufacturing; even if an American manufacturer re-entered, say, the toy market, the number of workers needed to produce the same number of widgets is less than when the original toy factor was shuttered. Third, the fall in exports (and, Donald Trump conveniently neglects to mention, imports) had more to do with declining consumer demand, and it isn't all that clear that any trade restriction, given multi-lateral international trade, would do anything more than simply shifting production from one foreign supplier to a different one elsewhere; it's like trying to squeeze a balloon. Fourth, the trade deficit with China has moderated, and we have seen our trade gap rise elsewhere faster. Finally, even if China manages its currency as alleged (like many developing countries do), an artificial pegged currency can be a mixed blessing; if you have to import, say, oil, an artificially low currency means you spend more for oil, which ultimately have to be passed on to one's customer (including domestic ones), which ignites inflation, having the effect of contracting discretionary income. On the other hand, if you have a market-valued currency, you pay less for your imported commodities or goods (say, Intel chips for Chinese-produced PC's), which allows an offset to the currency effects, not to mention an improved standard of living for one's citizens, since lower prices for relevant goods and services allows them to stretch their income.
Donald, as much as I respect your business success and believe that we need candidates for President whom have a more substantive background in business and economics, I regret to inform you that I have found other candidates with views closer to my own, and hence I will not be considering your application further. Good luck on your future endeavors.
Political Humor
"Supporters of Prop 19 believed the new law would have raised billions of dollars in tax revenue and created thousands of jobs for people to be too stoned to show up to." –Jimmy Kimmel
[Anyone who thinks Prop 19 was about about tax revenues is sampling the goods... Progressives would argue a marijuana tax is regressive, except they forgot. I wonder why...]
The San Francisco Giants beat the Texas Rangers to win the World Series for the first time in 56 years. The fans back home celebrated with riots, overturning Priuses, throwing bottles of bio-dynamically farmed zinfandel and building huge clean-burning bonfires. - Jimmy Kimmel
[And we conservatives on Tuesday night celebrated as Nancy Pelosi, San Francisco's Speaker of the House, was fired by the American people. We celebrated with pink slip confetti, loud music, red, white and blue balloons, noisemakers (i.e., Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann), milk and cookies...]
Musical Interlude: Instrumentals/One-Hit Wonders
Perez Prado, "Cherry Pink and Apple Blossom White"
Greta Van Susteren had a two-part interview with Donald Trump this week; while he did not announce intentions to run as President, he clearly implied that he was thinking about it, as he lashed out at policyholders for doing nothing about huge trade imbalance with China. (Apparently he hasn't heard NY Senator Schumer trying to pass some similarly misguided currency-exchange bill.) Trump implies that the unemployment problem can be attributed to our exporting jobs to China and said, using as anecdotal example, that Chinese building suppliers he deals with can't believe how much they can get away with in selling their goods in the US. Along the way he cites The Wharton School (a prestigious business school at the University of Pennsylvania) where he earned his undergraduate degree in a rather pretentious argument from authority. I wonder what the business school thinks of its alumnus' advocacy of trade protectionist policies...
Donald, the last time I checked, your areas of expertise are developing overpriced real estate properties and golf courses, not manufacturing, not toys and other consumer goods. There are a number of relevant points to make. First, trade wars/protectionism are counterproductive and can risk the jobs of the workers for American exporters. Second, the shedding of jobs in American manufacturing has more to do with a long-term trend of increasing efficiency in American manufacturing; even if an American manufacturer re-entered, say, the toy market, the number of workers needed to produce the same number of widgets is less than when the original toy factor was shuttered. Third, the fall in exports (and, Donald Trump conveniently neglects to mention, imports) had more to do with declining consumer demand, and it isn't all that clear that any trade restriction, given multi-lateral international trade, would do anything more than simply shifting production from one foreign supplier to a different one elsewhere; it's like trying to squeeze a balloon. Fourth, the trade deficit with China has moderated, and we have seen our trade gap rise elsewhere faster. Finally, even if China manages its currency as alleged (like many developing countries do), an artificial pegged currency can be a mixed blessing; if you have to import, say, oil, an artificially low currency means you spend more for oil, which ultimately have to be passed on to one's customer (including domestic ones), which ignites inflation, having the effect of contracting discretionary income. On the other hand, if you have a market-valued currency, you pay less for your imported commodities or goods (say, Intel chips for Chinese-produced PC's), which allows an offset to the currency effects, not to mention an improved standard of living for one's citizens, since lower prices for relevant goods and services allows them to stretch their income.
Donald, as much as I respect your business success and believe that we need candidates for President whom have a more substantive background in business and economics, I regret to inform you that I have found other candidates with views closer to my own, and hence I will not be considering your application further. Good luck on your future endeavors.
Political Humor
"Supporters of Prop 19 believed the new law would have raised billions of dollars in tax revenue and created thousands of jobs for people to be too stoned to show up to." –Jimmy Kimmel
[Anyone who thinks Prop 19 was about about tax revenues is sampling the goods... Progressives would argue a marijuana tax is regressive, except they forgot. I wonder why...]
The San Francisco Giants beat the Texas Rangers to win the World Series for the first time in 56 years. The fans back home celebrated with riots, overturning Priuses, throwing bottles of bio-dynamically farmed zinfandel and building huge clean-burning bonfires. - Jimmy Kimmel
[And we conservatives on Tuesday night celebrated as Nancy Pelosi, San Francisco's Speaker of the House, was fired by the American people. We celebrated with pink slip confetti, loud music, red, white and blue balloons, noisemakers (i.e., Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann), milk and cookies...]
Musical Interlude: Instrumentals/One-Hit Wonders
Perez Prado, "Cherry Pink and Apple Blossom White"
