They define a republic to be a government of laws, and not of men.
John Adams
I Voted: Have You?
I had already mentioned in past posts that I was supporting Bob Ehrlich, the popular moderate Republican governor whom was defeated for reelection by Martin O'Malley in 2006, and Dr. Eric Wargotz for US Senate. I also voted for Frank Mirabile against Elijah Cummings for Congress. But before I say anything else, let me make myself clear to the penny-wise, pound-foolish litmus-test ideologues like Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, the Tea Party Express, and any other right-wing activists whom attack moderate Republicans as "RINO's (Republican In Name Only)": anyone who thinks Delaware Congressman Mike Castle is a "RINO", i.e., a Republican whom votes like Joe Biden, is in a state of denial. You have to provide a candidate whom fits the electorate as it exists; you can't force a square peg into a round hole.. An ideologue like, say, Jim DeMint, would never win in a Northeast area state. Yes, you can probably find uncompromising, highly-motivated conservatives whom are highly motivated, but there are reasons why Goldwater lost and Reagan won by landslides: Reagan found ways to work with Democratic-controlled Congresses.
Let me illustrate using Maryland: The following Maryland state general election data were summarized by Frank Hecker:
Year %DEM %GOP %IND
1988 63.45 28.78 7.82
1990 64.80 29.10 6.10
1992 61.40 29.59 9.01
1994 61.21 31.40 7.39
1996 58.88 31.49 9.62
1998 60.06 31.27 8.66
2000 58.18 30.67 11.15
2002 57.06 32.72 10.22
2004 55.96 30.62 13.41
2006 56.81 31.55 11.64
2008 58.20 27.53 14.27
There's a difference between registered voters and voters by registration. Typically, Democrats have a higher percentage of registered voters, but higher percentages of Republican voters show up. In Maryland, Democrats make up 56% of the electorate, 26% of Republicans. For a Republican to win, it's not simply enough to minimize defections from one's base; one must also sweep the independents and attract a good number of registered Democrats. Ehrlich's victory in 2002 was an upset against Democratic royalty (i.e., a Kennedy). (Michael Steele, RNC Chair, was Ehrlich's running mate.) After Sarah Palin came out for Brian Murphy, an insurgent opponent against Ehrlich, Ehrlich demolished Murphy, winning over 75% of the vote.
Now, on a separate topic, just a casual observation of my voting precinct, which is anecdotal in nature and may not reflect Maryland as a whole: I voted at a comparable time 2 years ago, and I was standing in a line several dozen yards past the elementary school entrance. The turnout is much lighter than it was then, although I had to wait a few minutes for access to a voting booth. Now early voting was very strong, particularly for Democrats, but generally speaking, given higher turnouts for Republicans, a lighter overall turnout levels the playing field for Republican candidates.
Election Watch
There were no new polls or projections on RCP since I published last night.
I haven't discussed the last Gallup poll, released a few days ago, but the following excerpts are notable:
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters...Gallup's analysis ..suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.Republicans' 15-percentage-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome...Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats...Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.Congratulations, World Champion San Francisco Giants!
The last time the Giants, then the New York Giants, won the World Series (1954), my mom was a teenager, not yet married, and I didn't exist. I certainly understand long-frustrated baseball fans; a few years back I lived in the north Chicago suburbs (Chicago Cubs territory), and my folks, relatives and four siblings were born within several miles of Boston (Red Sox nation).
I once briefly worked for a company headquartered out of San Francisco, but the only client I had in San Francisco, KRON-TV, was through a Los Gatos IT consultancy. (My counterpart at KRON liked to frequent this deli at lunch a few blocks away which I believe freshly baked turkeys once or twice a week--best deli sandwiches ever.) They only booked me once or twice a week; my company hoped they could leverage my engagement into an ERP upgrade project, which I knew wasn't going to happen (KRON had just been bought out by this corporation using a competitive ERP system). We never really talked baseball (I think my assignment started in October), but I hope my old friends were thrilled with their first World Series championship. As a native Texan, I have mixed feelings, I have Dallas area nephews in mourning, and I feel bad for the team president of the Rangers, Nolan Ryan, my all-time favorite pitcher and a class act.
Beck's Mouth Outruns His Brain Again...
I watched particularly obnoxious segments by Glenn Beck (on his show) and Sarah Palin (on the O'Reilly Factor) last night, both sounding threats to moderate or traditional Republicans again--"last chance", "third party", "remember the [defunct] Whigs?" (Beck), etc. Sarah Palin is still attacking Mike Castle, a typical Northeasten Republican (fiscally conservative, small business advocate, socially moderate), whom should and would have been elected the new US Senator from Delaware.
Let me make myself clear to Beck and Palin: if the GOP wins the mid-terms today, it isn't a mandate for the Tea Party or its agenda. It has more to do with the people sending a message to Obama and the Democrats in terms of their priorities and performance on the core issue of the economy. They want a government to live within its means, a more civil, pragmatic approach to solving the nation's problems. They are tired of excuses, finger-pointing, and enemy lists.
Even if the GOP wins a sweeping election, the Democrats will have enough seats in either chamber to sustain a Presidential veto. I don't think that the voters have unrealistic expectations of what the GOP can do when the Senate Democrats hold the power of the filibuster and the President wields a veto. What voters will punish the GOP for is NOT whether Tea Party objectives have been met (I think there needs to be a two-election cycle to reverse much of the damage done over the past 2 years); what they want to see is less political posturing and stalemate and more practical results. If the GOP can't help stabilize the economy and show some tangible progress on the job front, they may be history. In future posts, I'll outline some steps in the necessary direction I see.
A third party? Be careful of what you wish for--you just may get it. It was humorous to hear Glenn Beck raise the example of the Whig Party. Remember the history: we initially had the Federalists and the (Jefferson) Republicans. The Federalists eventually went away and there was a single-party election by 1820. But there were multiple factions in the super-party with factions roughly parallel to the old parties, and eventually the split became formalized.
There are a number of moderates and independents whom are frustrated with a progressive-dominated Democratic Party, and the media conservatives want a similar domination of the Republican Party. If the media conservatives or Tea Party succeed in making moderates and independents unwelcome, I GUARANTEE: (1) they will not gain the support of independents and moderates, and (2) it opens the way for a third party that WILL emphasize a more pragmatic standpoint.
Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin mistakingly believe, because they can attract large crowds, that "the people" are with them. NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.
Political Humor
A few originals:
- Karl Rove recently said that Sarah Palin doesn't have the gravitas to run for President. Sarah responded that the Gravita family didn't support her 2006 run as Alaska's governor either, but she still won.
- Sarah Palin said she would run for President if there was no one else to do it. But she's a little late; as soon as 14.8 million unemployed people heard there was a prospective job opening up at the White House, they put in their applications.
Deodato, "Also Sprach Zarathustra (2001)"
