A tragic situation exists precisely
when virtue does not triumph
but when it is still felt that man is nobler
than the forces which destroy him.
George Orwell
Election Results: Key Observations/Takeaways
As I write this in the early hours Tuesday night, ABC has projected GOP House count of 235-184. There are 16 undecided, and GOP candidates leading in a number. Two things: the Dems have to run the table (unlikely) to reach 200. This means that even if they don't win any of the remaining seats (unlikely), they'll have gained at least 57 seats, the most remarkable turnover in over 60 years, surpassing the landmark 1994 election turnover. Of course, the Republicans needed 218 to fire Speaker Nancy Pelosi, so congratulations to presumptive Speaker-elect John Boehner.
Huge close Senate victories of Mark Kirk (IL) and Pat Toomey (PA). ABC has the Dems (including the Connecticut and Vermont independents) at 51-46 with 3 seats outstanding: Murkowski is likely to retain, Buck is currently leading by 1%, and Murray maintains less than a 1-point lead with a third of the vote outstanding. So it's possible to get to 49 but a minimum of 47 and likely 48 or better.
Other insights:
- Stunning personal rebuke of Obama in Illinois: Mark Kirk takes his former Senate seat; Kinzinger (IL-11), Holtgren (IL-14), Schilling (IL-17), Walsh (IL-8)?, Brady, governor ?
- New England GOP shutout ends, but they leave several cards on the table: New Hampshire GOP keeps Gregg's seat and takes back two House seats--but got shut out of two competitive House seats in Connecticut within 3 points, two races in Maine, and in half the seats in Massachusetts (including Barney Franks seat) ran 42% or better
- Lots of other seats are left on the table; for example, the GOP won 5 turnover seats in New York but lost 3 others (including NY-23) by 2 points
- Governor sweeps in the Rust Belt for the GOP: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, possibly Illinois (trailing within a point)
- The paradoxical loss of three female CEO's (Whitman, Fiorina, McMahon) for governor, Senate
- Stunning losses of key veteran Democrats: Chet Edwards (TX-17), John Spratt (SC-5), Ike Skelton (MO-4)
- Frank "Shove it [Obama's endorsement]" Capri (RI-D) runs third for RI Governor behind winner independent/former GOP Senator Linc Chafee
- Stunning rebuke of Tea Party Express Candidate Sniping: Loss of two turnover Senate key seats: Angle (NV), O'Donnell (DE); Alaska Write-In (Murkowski) beating Joe Miller (R)
- Individual races: Jon Runyan (NJ3-R) beats incumbent Adler despite fake Tea Party candidate, Daniel Webster (FL-8) takes out Alan Grayson, and Dold (R), an underdog, took Kirk's IL-10 seat (my old Congressional district). The GOP also got Sestak's old Congressional seat.
Basically, Keynesian economics suggests that proactive activities by the government/public sector can stimulate or smooth out a distressed or stagnant private sector economy. Think of government money as sort of a starter log, with cascading effects on other logs (the multiplier effect). Keynes argued that the government needed to do two things during the Great Depression: lower interest rates, and invest in government infrastructure. Obama's massive $860B stimulus, with special emphasis on infrastructure, is classic Keynesian economics, which is why the following clip is so funny. (There may be also some confusion because Obama's dad was Kenyan.)
Political Humor
- Hugo Chavez has declared golf a "bourgeois sport", confiscated golf courses, taken the land and given it to the poor. It sounds to me like someone had an even worse year on the golf course than Tiger Woods did ...
Henry Mancini, "Love Story Theme"
