To say this has been a weird election year is an understatement. We have the first former POTUS to seek nonconsecutive terms for the first time since Grover Cleveland. It is also the first election where I candidate is under criminal indictment. Not to mention the first incumbent who surrendered his reelection nomination to his VP. Let me also point out here I am Never Trump and Never Harris.
I honestly underestimated the strength of Kamala Harris as a candidate, although I knew Trump in 2 straight elections had topped out at 46% or so of the popular vote. There are multiple reasons for that: Harris has had among the worst VP ratings in recent history although it has improved since her Presidential candidacy; her 2020 POTUS Primary support was only about 3%, and she is inheriting Biden's 41% approval rating, largely reflecting inflation and other economic concerns and and the chronic border situation. Granted, she was going to flip the tables on Trump and Biden's age issue, and she had a natural appeal on gender and the post-Dobbs abortion issue, especially to women voters.
I had expected Dems would be rejuvenated after Biden's plunging chances, accelerated by a bad debate performance against Trump and expected a honeymoon boost if not a post-convention bounce. What did somewhat surprise me was the stickiness of her admittedly narrow advantage over Trump. I normally think a statistically significant advantage with a majority (vs. plurality) of the vote as decisive and that hasn't happened. Still, I thought Harris' highly leftist voting record, her identification as part of a highly unpopular administration, her own low favorability cited above once the euphoria of replacing a losing incumbent nominee died down and people took a closer look of her own {lack of) qualifications. This doesn't mean those votes would go to Trump, who has gotten 46% of the vote in the last 2 elections, maybe a third party or no choice.
A couple of points here: I think there's social desirability bias to polling Trump, i.e., some people who end voting for Trump don't end up reporting it to pollsters. For instance I remember in 2020 Biden had up to a dozen point lead and some projections of up to 350 electoral votes. Trump ended up with a small majority win and he lost a number of close states, enough that if Trump had won a few thousand more votes across state, he could have flipped results. Second, we normally expect a tightening as the election approaches, and it normally tilts in favor of the change candidate, in this context, Trump.
As I write, RCP, has has Trump wi a 0.1% lead nationally and a 0.9% lead in battleground states--with tiny advantages in each one. All of these are statistically insignificant, of course, but whatever momentum we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been with Trump.. Not to mention a number of polls tend to oversample Dem voters
I also look at Stossel's election betting odds site. As I write, Trump is given a 61.5% chance of winning. Even more intriguing, they give the GOP a 51.2% chance of keeping the House and an 84% chance of regaining the Senate. How reliable are betting odds? Newsweek finds over a period of time they've been reliable about 77% of the time.
Let me mention here I really believe Trump's anti-trade and anti-immigrant policies are both immoral and toxic to economic growth. If anything, the Dems are even worse on labor protectionism. Harris means more of the same inflationary tax-and-spend policies, not to mention even more meddling in international meddling. i don't see either party seriously cutting budgets or reforming entitlements. I think both parties will punt on politically unpopular but necessary reform. It will likely take something like a crisis to get any serious reform passed. .I think the Senate is better controlled by the GOP which will protect the filibuster, and the GOP House is more credible on spending restraint. I don't prefer either Trump or Harris, but on most policies except the ones I mentioned above, the GOP is more credible on the economy.
