First, I want to make clear I am not a Kevin McCarthy fan for a number of reasons, including his post-Jan. 6 2021 behavior pandering to Trump, his role in defending Trump during the impeachments, and GOP failures in spending restraints while he has been in leadership. I had no dog in this fight, as a former Democrat and Republican. In fact, I was intrigued by Justin Amash's openly promoting himself for the position (but didn't even receive one protest vote during 15 rounds).
However, I did not especially care for the dissident faction taking full advantage of a razor-thin majority to extort concessions disproportionately at the expense of 90% of the caucus. This reminded me of the unsavory aspects of coalition deals you often see in Europe and Israel where say you see a splinter religious party leverage its few members to win special-purpose concessions. You started hearing some grumbling among McCarthy's 200-vote base in the later rounds as he negotiated concessions, even MTG, who backed McCarthy every vote, wondering why she didn't extort the leader for a deal she wanted. (I think he's privately assured her of getting assigned to committees after being stripped in the last session of Congress.) The biggest fear I had was a possible split in McCarthy's base over his concessions.
I was surprised by the failure of round 14 when McCarthy unexpectedly lost by one vote. CNN had implied Gaetz would vote yes; he would instead vote "present". The issue is the Speaker vote requires a majority of votes cast, i.e., normally 435/2=217.5+. (This is why after other GOP votes exceeded 4, McCarthy lost confirmation). Technically one Dem (McEachin) has died since the election, so the Dems have 212 vs. the GOP's 222. When Boebert and Gaetz voted present this meant that McCarthy needed better than 432/2=216, which is the number of votes he got. The real issue was the McCarthy whip probably expected another "present" vote from the 4 no's--probably Rosendale. Obviously if Gaetz voted yes, it would have given McCarthy 217, but if Rosendale had voted present, the vote requirement would have been 431/2=215.5+, and the 216 would get McCarthy there.
The failed vote resulted in a rare post-vote confrontation between McCarthy and Gaetz and another Congressman (Mike Rogers) almost physically assaulted Gaetz. I really didn't expect Gaetz, who openly despises McCarthy, to put him over; McCarthy's real problem was the no votes, which counted in deciding the majority base.
I knew almost instantly in round 15 that McCarthy would get it. Why? This time the dissidents did not put another name into nomination. And when Biggs, a no vote all 14 rounds, voted present, all McCarthy needed was to hold his 216 votes from round 14, assuming Boebert and Gaetz reaffirmed "present". In fact, the other 3 no votes switched to present 428/2=214+ for a majority.
Just a couple of side notes: I mostly watched FNC and CNN coverage yesterday. (CNN had annoyed me by promoting Planned Parenthood ads post-Dobbs.) FNC irritated me on Friday noon coverage by preempting vote coverage for Biden's comments over his upcoming visit to the border area. And CNN, which Twitter leftists had bitterly complained had become Fox News Lite in the interim, was obsessed with 1/6/21 coverage with innumerable multiple analyst (e.g., Tapper, King) references to McCarthy allegedly promoting Trump's plans to reverse his 2020 election loss, etc.
Finally, I see the ultimate outcome of the Speaker race as sound for our system of representative democracy. To some extent, the dissidents opened up the legislative oligarchy Amash has rightly railed against. While innumerable talking heads had all but declared McCarthy's political death, the caucus majority held firm. While clearly McCarthy should have done a better job anticipating the drawn-out process, a lot of pundits were suggesting McCarthy's negotiations had failed, I knew the negotiations were still ongoing and I didn't expect the dissidents to reverse their votes until a settlement was reached.
Of course, be careful of what you wish for. McCarthy and Scalise will have a hard time negotiating a GOP consensus agenda though an ideologically diverse caucus.
