Analytics

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Post #4869 Commentary: Well, I Completely Got This Election Wrong

 Well, before commenting on the Presidential race, let me speak first of the biggest political surprise of the night: the Democrats had been highly favored to flip the Senate. They did flip Colorado and Arizona as expected and the GOP flipped back Jeff Sessions' old seat in Alabama as expected. Probably the biggest surprise to me is Sen Collins (R-ME), at last glance, won reelection by 9 points (when I don't think I saw a single poll with her ahead), Graham (R-SC) defeated his well-financed opponent by a similarly large number, Daines (R-MT) fought off a popular former governor and vulnerable Republicans in NC and GA are in the lead, and Sen. Loeffler is in the runoff for the second GA Senate seat, having eliminated Trumpkin Congressman Collins. So the GOP is likely to hold the Senate, with Dem control rumored to lead to elimination of the filibuster and packing SCOTUS.

And I'm thrilled Ms. Mace flipped back my old South Carolina Congressional district.

As I write, it looks like Biden hit the magic number 50 of the popular vote, but Trump did state-wise better than expected. I thought huge early voting in Texas meant good news for Biden, and rumored senior citizen discontent with Trump's incompetent handling of COVID-19 doomed the incumbent in Florida. As I write, Biden stands at 264 votes, 6 votes shy of election, with pending Nevada's 6 votes likely his; Biden flipped Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (AZ's call is in dispute, but Trump would have to outperform in the remaining ballots, highly unlikely.)

I have to give Trump credit for waging an unexpectedly strong performance despite severe issues with the pandemic and its effects on the economy, never mind his sky-high unfavorables and low job approval.