Analytics

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Miscellany: 2/07/15

Quote of the Day
An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.
Sir Winston Churchill


Image of the Day

Via Lawrence Reed
Via the Independent Institute
The Public Pension Tsunami

This is one of my hot button issues, frequently raised by IPI in my Facebook Corner segment; it's not a matter of jealousy (I don't have any pension to look forward to beyond dubious and much more limited social security), but the sheer madness of the economics and the audacity and entitlement of a cushy early retirement, with payouts often exceeding median household income. The pension obligation is often growing faster than revenues and comes at the expense of other public expenditures and/or increased taxes on many taxpayers who don't have a pension of their own.



Yellen and the Destruction of Sound Money

There is an excellent recent post from an investment advisory entitled "Why It's Time For Morph Into a Hawk".  In this post is a remarkable chart:

Via MarketAuthority.com
A couple of notable excerpts;
In a 2005 speech in San Francisco, Yellen opposed deflating the housing bubble because “arguments against trying to deflate a bubble outweigh those in favor of it”.  She went on to proclaim that the housing bubble “could be large enough to feel like a good-sized bump in the road, but the economy would likely be able to absorb the shock.”  Yellen’s “good-sized bump” turned out to be a steel-reinforced wall.
Why do we believe that the eventual outcome [to the 5-year “monetary policy to infinity” experiment] will be any different than the sharp recessions witnessed in 2001 and 2008?
We know, of course, about the 18-year real estate cycle::
Via BusinessInsider
Recall the real estate crash of 1989; now granted, this is just a heuristic, not a natural law--but if you add 18 to 1989, it takes you to the start of the Great Recession in 2007. The author of the last cited article talks about a lawyer friend who made so much money flipping real estate around 1989 that he stopped practicing law. Now most of us, even Janet Yellen in the quote above, knew we were in an unsustainable bubble by at least 2005; I was seeing condo flipping infomercials on late night television; while growth and income were anemic since year 2000, housing prices continued to outpace them, and I recall GW Bush being very proud that a record high ownership rate had occurred on his watch. But increasingly these sales went to more risky, lower-income people who did not have the traditional 20% down. For the most part most of these loans, with loan term resets, only made sense in a rising real estate market that one could time in a game of musical chairs.

Of course, Janet underestimated the impact of a housing market correction. But going back to the chart at the top of the segment, we see that the Fed thinks it's mastered by conventional business cycle--but in reality it's creating super asset bubbles through easy money policy. ZIRP policy has badly lagged inflation, and inflation becomes more of a factor as we advance in a business cycle. (Now granted, I've pointed out there's a distinct whiff of deflation in the global economy, plus some recent softness in factory orders and consumer sentiment, but the problem I see is that current interest rates are exacerbating malinvestments, possibly including the rapid buildout of shale oil operations, vulnerable to crude oil corrections.)

Unfortunately, the one thing I'm sure of is that Yellen and the rest of the Fed will be a day late and dollar short in addressing a crisis-in-the-making, and once again demagogues will point fingers at "market failures"....

Facebook Corner


 Actually it was called the Democrat-Republican party or the Jefferson Republican Party. I doubt that Jefferson would have a lot in common with today's Republican or Democrat Parties but would fit right in with the libertarians.
Actually, today's Democrats are more like the Federalist/Whig protectionists, believers in centralized banks, and government-sponsored infrastructure. Today's Republicans include conservative Southern Democrats. We haven't seen a decent Democrat elected since Grover Cleveland.

(Lawrence Reed). If the progressive thinks income inequality is a threat that requires action, then I ask, “Why not begin with yourself and redistribute your income? Your income is wildly unequal to the Third World poor or even the poorest Americans.” Of course, the progressive is always reluctant to acknowledge that government cannot give anything to anyone without first seizing someone’s wages or earnings. And the progressives seldom volunteer their own resources -- Ron Robinson in this week's installment in the "Clichés of Progressivism" series at FEE.org.
Inequality is a relative concept. I may live in an apartment vs. mansion, drive an older model midsize car vs. a new Mercedes, fly coach vs. first class, make my own dinner vs. dine at a 5-star restaurant, but I don't really care: I live well enough. We have failed domestic economic programs that are morally hazardous, encouraging a permanent entitled underclass, "trickle down charity" at the point of a gun which primarily services the ruling class bureaucracy. What's amazing is despite repeated failures of monopoly central planned government, "progressives" remain in a state of denial; what we need is liberation of the economy from State constraints which should accelerate economic growth and organically grow more, better economic opportunities for all people.

(IPI). House Speaker Mike Madigan has received more than $1.1 million from Illinois' five major public unions since 2002.
What about big corporation contribution and there influences of big money ?????
Are you honestly trying to say that corporations have bought off the Illinois legislature? Where's the evidence of this? Have corporate tax rates been repealed under a decade of jackass rule? Shut up, you political hack!

(Cato Institute). "President Obama is presiding over what may prove to be the most significant round of trade liberalization in American history, yet he has never once made an affirmative case for that outcome. Despite various reports of intensifying outreach to members of Congress, the president’s 'advocacy' is couched in enough skepticism to create and reinforce fears about trade and globalization."Well, of course, he set a goal of doubling exports which is hard to do without liberalization. As Boudreaux and other free market economists point out, we should declare unilateral free trade. The way that Obama sells trade to his base, which includes protectionist unions, is by negotiating non-trade policies on labor standards and the environment; he is a mercantilist at heart.
Good point. We don't have enough cheap dumped goods over here yet sabotaging our domestic industry; we need more--much more.
Corrupt crony capitalists and/or mercantilists like the OP look for protection against global competition; they lack a competitive business model and so they hope to profit at the expense of the average consumer's living standard.

(Reason). Where do you stand on the issue of mandatory vaccination?
It depends on the nature and context of the vaccine and its toleration by the individual person. But certainly if you have a contagious disease, you present a threat to the health, even lives of others. You may not even realize that you have a serious disease. It's not an issue of paternalism for your own risks from the disease but your risk to others if you should catch the disease. To the extent you are social, yes, mandatory vaccination is a moral necessity to minimize risks to people who are unable to be vaccinated for health reasons.

Political Cartoon
Courtesy of Robert Ariail via Townhall

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Vocalists

Dusty Springfield, "The Windows of Your Mind".  One of the best progressive vocal performances I've ever heard, starting out slowly with a soft, melancholic tone and then she starts to burst into full-throated power vocals about 2 minutes in. (I also love the backing guitar work and the arrangement overall.) Whereas Noel Harrison's interpretation is very good, the performance below has the feel of being a bit too rushed in a much narrower vocal range.