Analytics

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Miscellany: 3/29/12

Quote of the Day 

The 'Inside-Out' approach to personal and self;
even more fundamentally, to start with the most inside part of self
with your paradigms, your character, and your motives. 
The inside-out approach says that private victories precede public victories, 
that making and keeping promises to ourselves precedes making and keeping promises to others. 
It says it is futile to put personality ahead of character, 
to try to improve relationships with others before improving ourselves.
Stephen Covey

Great New Romney Ad: Some Comments

The Romney campaign ad is pure political genius: the ad not only perfectly captures Obama's hubris and narcissism, but the beautiful baby represents future generations indentured by a feckless, spendthrift, profligate Obama (aka "The $5 Trillion (and Counting) Man") and his enabling Congressional Democrat crony allies.

The ad makes a questionable point about the $5T Man that I think needs a correction. From the Treasury Department:

CurrentDebt Held by the PublicIntragovernmental HoldingsTotal Public Debt Outstanding
03/27/201210,831,917,653,124.474,757,489,762,037.2315,589,407,415,161.70
The Romney ad suggests that Obama has spent almost as much as all the other Presidents put together. In my March 20 post, I pointed out that Obama just eclipsed the $4.9T accrued by George W. Bush's 8 years in office, setting a new all-time American Presidential deadbeat record. But is Obama more fiscally irresponsible than all of his predecessors put together?

No, he inherited about $10.6T; but you can argue by next January, he'll probably have eclipsed all the debt that George W. Bush inherited and left Bush in the dust, despite the fact that the recession technically ended in June 2009. Note that Bush started his tenure with an 8-month recession, ended with a 13-month recession (in process), and incurred over 7 years of war funding.

However, there is a more troubling shift--from the captive funding of social security reserves to publicly held debt, and the government has to compete with other investments, which adversely affects the private sector. The key point is the category called "Intragovernmental Holdings". You know, this is the money that "Don't Worry, Be Happy" Democrats will tell you won't run out for another 20-odd years; in essence, as we have been doing for the last 2 years counting, we not only take ALL of existing employee social security taxes (and employer matches) and simply send them out to current beneficiaries--but we have to dip into the reserve to make up the difference.

Under Obama, no net contribution has been added to the reserve since 2009: in fact, excluding interest income, we've run at a deficit since 2010 (for the first time since the Reagan social security fix) and have had to dip down into the reserves because (among other things): (1) payroll tax cuts to employees, (2) accelerating Baby Boomer retirements and (3) a bumper crop of early retirees seeking shelter from a horrific jobless recession/recovery, disproportionately affecting older workers.)  At the beginning of the Obama Presidency, public-held debt was $6.3T and IGH was $4.3T. Publicly held debt has gone up just over 70%--while the reserves are up roughly 10%. Now debt is debt is debt, whether it's a Treasury note held by a mutual fund, the Chinese or Japanese, or an IOU in the social security reserve. You can argue that publicly-held debt accumulated during the Obama Administration will come close to matching nearly all the publicly-held debt through Bush, and it could be that's what the Romney campaign is referring to.

Uh-oh. Smell that? I think the new generation needs a change. In Washington DC this fall.




Timothy Sandefur/Cato Institute, 
"ObamaCare's Medicaid Mandates at SCOTUS"
Thumbs UP!

One of the issues on the third day of SCOTUS deliberations on ObamaCare was whether the sovereignty of states have been subordinated, by scope creep of a federal government's power grab, by strings on Medicaid funding. The two points I want to point out from this discussion involve (1) the Solicitor General's refusal to draw any limits on the discretion of Administrative bureaucrats (like HHS Security Sebelius), which in my judgment shows utter disregard for the Founding Fathers' concept and intent of limited federal government and (2) the issue of materiality of Medicaid funding (up to 40% or so of state budgets) and federal barriers for states to exit the Medicaid arrangement. For example, Sandefur talks about federal constraints on states' ability to control costs, even if they exited the Medicaid arrangement by, say, transferring patients to more cost-effective facilities.

NOTE: I still think that individual state regulations of health care--including various special-interest mandates, professional licensing, etc.--can be just as problematic in other aspects. What I see as a more constructive federal role in health care is to allow more of a free market among states, allowing individual policyholders to work around protectionist expensive state mandates. State-based insurers, no doubt, would quickly demand the rollback of mandates to compete in the market. The problem is that the progressive Obama Administration, instead of using interstate commerce authority to promote more of a free market among states, attempted to centralize authority and thus propagate unsustainable mandates to the states in a clear subjugation of interests as described above, a form of extortion. This creates deadweight loss for consumers because they are forced to pay for expensive optional (versus core emergency care)  benefits they don't want or need (they may later on choose to use them because they feel they're paying for them anyway--a self-fulfilling dysfunctional outcome which exacerbates inflationary pressures in the sector!)




What is Your Favorite President Obama Gaffe?
The Week Presents a Slideshow
[Obama was overheard talking] to Russia's president when he thought his microphone was off. "Give me space," Obama said. "This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility" to deal with missile defense.
Obama makes the list of 9 Presidential moments with 2 other gaffes (plus Biden's expletive overheard at the signing of ObamaCare (I also said an expletive, but it didn't get national attention)): a comment about rapper Kanye West, whom had rudely interrupted then teenage country singer Taylor Swift's video award acceptance (this is one of those rare occasions I find myself in agreement with Obama), and a tag-team insult of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with French President Sarkozy, with the Nobel Peace Prize-winning President/diplomat saying, "You're fed up, but I have to deal with him every day."

Mr. Obama, after the fall election, you'll have plenty of time--to work on your third autobiography. You're right about one thing: just like Carter, your reelection campaign will be your last.

I have issues with crony Big Defense, but I do think that Russia and China should be acutely aware that any assistance to nuclear arms proliferation is a double-edged sword (particularly with rogue groups or states). The concern, of course, is that an effective missile defense system lowers the risk associated with a first strike. But Obama knows perfectly well that Senate conservatives are concerned about the rogue nation pursuit of missile and nuclear weapon technology and will not approve any unilateral concessions, before or after an election.

What is absolutely clear is that Obama is applying an unconscionable double standard: we now know that Obama is deliberately attempting to manipulate American voters by pretending before the election that he is pro-strong defense (not wanting to deal that card away to Mitt Romney) but he'll be in a position to make unilateral concessions once he's reelected and doesn't have to worry about reelection.

Obama, you need to play it straight with the American people: if you don't believe in missile defense, have the personal integrity to stand up for your beliefs in front of the American voters, and trust them to make the right decision. As far as I'm concerned, this evidence that you are subordinating the national defense to your reelection efforts is grounds for higher scrutiny of any and all post-election treaties

Remy is Back: Health Care Is Like a Pizza
Obama Says, "Make Mine $1T With All the (Public) Works"
I Say "Health Care, It is a Chinese (Paid) Buffet
I Only Want Egg Rolls, But I Still Have to Pay"






Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Little River Band, "Man On Your Mind". One of my top 3 favorite LRB songs, one of my favorite singles from the 1980's.