I deliberately chose a provocative title; no, Senator McCain and I have never personally met, and I happen to prefer younger women. But when you find a political figure you believe in, it's like falling in love. There was an independent streak to McCain, his legendary straight talk, his bipartisan approach to legislation, the Gang of 14, and his politically courageous stands backing Bush's unpopular Iraq surge strategy and immigration reform just before his final opportunity to obtain the GOP Presidential nomination. McCain's campaign imploded, he ended up riding coach and carrying bags through airports. Yet he hung in there, even as his support tanked to single-digit percentages.
I remember seeing George W. Bush beating a popular Democratic governor in Texas in 1994 and fashion a bipartisan coalition. As a natural problem solver, I thought if anyone could bridge the partisan divide in Washington, it would be Governor Bush. It never happened, which I attribute in part due to the controversial end to the Bush-Gore election and then Jeffords' decision to break with the GOP Senate Majority soon thereafter, throwing control of the Senate to the Democrats.
Perhaps my hopes of bipartisan leadership from Bush were unrealistic: after all, the US Congress is much different than the Texas legislature, and many Democratic incumbents in power occupy safe seats. But the fact that John McCain attracted serious consideration from John Kerry from his VP slot in 2004 renewed my hope to an end of a partisan divide.
In fact, I was convinced after the 2006 election that McCain was the only viable GOP candidate whom could win an expected tough battle for the White House in 2008. Certainly it wasn't the strength of the Democratic field: the top two candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, were manifestly unqualified to be President: they had no executive experience, just under or over one Senate term each, and no meaningful legislative achievements; it had more to do with George Bush, whom completely misplayed a narrow reelection win: he had chosen Texas cronies to be Attorney General and to the Supreme Court, underestimated the difficulty of reforming social security without a Democratic buy-in, failed to manage the politics of the Hurricane Katrina tragedy, and stayed the course on a clearly failing occupation mission in Iraq, just years after criticizing the folly of nation building in east Europe. Bush did little to rehabilitate his plummeting approval ratings, which made it all but impossible for any Republican candidate to win in 2008. I realized that the GOP was unlikely to win back either the Senate or the House in 2008; the only way I felt that the GOP had a shot to retain the White House in 2008 was to appeal to the moderates and independents with a candidate whom could distance himself from George Bush: John McCain's clash with Bush during the 2000 Presidential race and some key votes allowed that differentiation.
Of course, McCain was despised by populist conservatives for his bipartisan efforts (especially on immigration and campaign reform) and his early votes against the Bush tax cuts. As a result, McCain ended up making a critical long-term error by seeking to appeal to Bush's still enthusiastic base with his solid Bush voting record over the last year or two.
McCain was still way back in the pack when I did something I had never done before: make a small campaign contribution (more notable because I did it at the time between jobs). Then I watched McCain's unprecedented campaign resurgence. As someone who fought other conservatives on political websites whom fought as tenaciously against McCain as Romney is finding resistance from the same populist conservatives today, I could only marvel at how McCain closed the deal on the nomination.
I started this blog in July 2008 before his VP selection pick. Privately, I was concerned about McCain's practical campaign strategy while Obama and Clinton were fighting to the finish. I didn't want to mention it in the blog, but I was unnerved by McCain's seeming obsession to remind voters about his military and foreign policy expertise: I thought he was pushing on a string. The economy was beginning to slow, job growth and economic growth had been tepid during the Bush Presidency, and I thought he needed to focus on that, something more important given an extremely damaging quote he had given a few years earlier meaning that he needed to be educated on economics. I would have had him out there every day establishing his economics bona fides, talking about steps in reestablishing a balanced budget, etc.
I had my doubts about the selection of Sarah Palin from the start. I had dismissed it from the get-go because of looming Troopergate. But more importantly, even though I understood why the GOP might want to seize the alienated women vote after Clinton lost to Obama, I thought the pick undermined the experience argument McCain was making against Obama. How is a second-year governor from a small (in population) state ready to take over for someone with over 25 years in the House and Senate (plus an additional 20 years in the military)? I did try to make the best of a bad situation and point out her then broad bipartisan support in Alaska.
And then things went from bad to worse: the unanswered myth that Bush and McCain were radical deregulators (in fact, the Bush Administration had one of the largest increases of regulation in American history), McCain's quixotic decision to suspend his campaign for TARP deliberations, McCain's inability to differentiate himself from Obama during TARP negotiations, his competition with Obama over big-spending remedies with the economy, etc.
But McCain had his moments, including a nomination acceptance speech when he unexpectedly conceded that the Vietnamese had managed to break him as a POW to his compelling "Fight!" close and his gracious concession speech on Election Night.
I knew once the economic tsunami hit during September, McCain was done. There was so much economic uncertainty, the public naturally turned to the social safety net of the Democrats. There were a number of other problems including the McCain campaign, starting out with a 10-point lead in Florida, not responding to a number of campaign ads, perhaps due to Obama's huge campaign advantage. Knowing that Obama was playing by different rules, McCain couldn't afford to stick with a much smaller publicly-funded election fund, but he did. McCain started offering interventionist programs, including some similar to Obama's.
I was impressed enough with McCain's performance to award him my 2008 Man of the Year.
So what has happened to change my mind?
First, McCain has a streak of misguided loyalty to Sarah Palin. He endlessly repeats the same political spin praising her contribution to his campaign. The fact is Sarah Palin's interviews were so bad, it cast a cloud over McCain's own judgment in selecting her. Moderate and independent candidates specifically referenced Palin's selection as an issue. Moreover, I perceive the loyalty more as stubbornness.
Second, McCain is no longer the "straight talker"; almost everything he says now is not direct but comes across as political spin.
Third, McCain has been more of a "stay the course" guy on Iraq and Afghanistan and then there's talk of potential action on Iran. Perhaps it's myself, not McCain, whom has changed. I see our military forces tied down in one strategically questionable corner of the world; I see us spending more money on Defense than the next few nations combined which is unsustainable when we are running trillion dollar deficits. True, McCain has criticized the occasional problem military project and earmarks, but he's just tinkering around the edges.
Finally, McCain's quirky populism comes across as conceptually confused; for example, he disagrees with a recent SCOTUS decision affecting campaign finance reform efforts he's championed with Feingold.
The final straw was when I heard McCain on yesterday's Meet the Press, when, among other things, McCain was dismissive of attempts by the Arizona state legislature to address the recent religious liberty/birth control issue.
I'm done. I still respect the senator for his service and his integrity. But I'm looking for a bolder, more philosophically consistent approach.
