Quote of the Day
If a man does not make new acquaintances
as he advances through life,
he will soon find himself alone.
A man should keep his friendships in constant repair.
Samuel Johnson
Political Potpourri
Super Tuesday Eve Edition
I don't know if other pundits are pointing out the same, but there's been a significant development where Romney has gone from a consistent low-20 percentile to a stealth rise in the polls. He has actually gotten just over 42% of the accumulated vote to date to now we have two separate polls (Gallup Tracking, and NBC News), showing Romney at an identical 38% in the general Republican beauty contest.
Santorum and Gingrich will point out that means 58% of voters are voting against him, but the fact is that the 3 candidates account for that 58%, and Bill Clinton won the 1992 Presidency with a similar percentage against two major opponents, President Bush and Ross Perot.
At least 3 polls out there show Gingrich has 47% of the vote in Georgia, but he's barely in the mid-teens nationwide. It seems he's decided on a Southern strategy and hopes to outlast Santorum; he's convinced he's got a third shot left at Romney. The problem is that even if Southern Republicans prefer Gingrich to Romney, any reasonable Republican, including Romney, will carry the South, just like McCain did. However, Gingrich is carrying baggage, and polls have consistently showed that Gingrich attracts less general election support than his competition, and I've even seen Georgia polls with Romney leading Obama by a larger percentage. Gingrich has not had a good showing to date anywhere outside the Southeast.
There's an interesting thing going on in the polls with Santorum in quite a few polls in the ballpark with Romney against Obama. I think those recent tracking polls are misleading. It's not just that Santorum gives away the business card that Romney's candidacy offers, but Santorum's high visibility on social issues and polarizing statements over the past two decades provides Obama with enormous ammunition to deflect attention away from his incompetent performance over the past 4 years and make Santorum's character the issue. For an incumbent senator to have lost his reelection by 18 points to Bob Casey, a far less charismatic opponent in a purple state is not good: he was part of the leadership that got rebuked in the 2006 election. Things like his role in the new Medicare drug benefit (unpaid for) and notorious earmarks like the Bridge to Nowhere sharply undermine his case against the $5T Man, Barack Obama: you know that Obama is going to come back right at him, pointing out that the last time there was a balanced budget, the Dems controlled the Senate and Bush, largely on Santorum watch, almost doubled the national debt by himself.
I take into account that barring a Ted Roosevelt/Ross Perot third-party candidacy, which I don't see happening, the GOP should be starting from McCain 46%. I seriously doubt that McCain voters have been converted by Obama these past 3 years. But remember that McCain is more popular than Santorum or Gingrich among independents and moderates. Now Santorum will point out that he won in a district that has a high percentage of blue-collar Dems ; that was before he became a target as part of the Senate leadership.
I think Romney's problems are fixable--but he has only 4 years of Massachusetts positions on the line; Santorum has 4 times the exposure. Santorum can't argue anti-Washington/change the way that Romney can.
A whole flurry of polls out of Ohio, and you would have to say it looks, as in the case in Michigan, Romney is going to come from behind to take Ohio. The momentum is clearly in his direction. Today's results showed Romney now leading in 3 of the polls and one tie, with Santorum barely beat Romney in 2 others. Romney hasn't led Ohio in a long time, and it would not surprise me if Romney wins by 2 or 3 points based on momentum. Intrade has Romney winning Ohio with a market share exceeding 80%
What really surprised me is how fast Romney has been closing the race in Tennessee; only about a third of Intraders think Romney will pull it out, but one poll showed Romney up by a bare minimum I would need to know more about the momentum of Romney's surge; I think the odds are still in Santorum's favor but I would not be surprised if Romney squeaks by.
I haven't seen more recent polls in Oklahoma; I think the Santorum's plunge has occurred across the board. My intuition says if Santorum wins anywhere tomorrow, it starts with Oklahoma.
The Gallup tracking poll now has Santorum down by 16%; I think that's the one Gingrich is closely tracking because he thinks he'll get the hot non-Romney vote, but Romney's electability argument is what the close is being based on--conservatives are more interested in seeing Obama out and all they really care about Romney is that he's conservative enough and not another Obama. As long as Romney keeps pointing out that he balanced his budgets but Obama had been running up the nation's credit card limit, I don't think that's a problem.
With 410 delegates on the line tomorrow, in theory Romney could close in the halfway point to the nomination; it's unlikely he'll do that given proportional assignment of delegates, he's probably going to lose 2 to 4 primaries (but likely to get a cut of the delegates as the likely runner-up). Romney is pretty much a lock on Massachusetts, Virginia, and Vermont; he should win at least one, if not both Idaho and North Dakota, and it looks like Ohio and maybe even Tennessee are possible. If he wins half or more of the races, he should pick up, say, at least 60% of the delegates. I see him doubling or more his delegate count, and he should have at least a third of the delegates he needs to get the nomination.
Do You Like to Insert Quotes in Your Email?
Some observant readers will note that I start off each miscellany post with a quote; you may have wondered where these quotes come from. I've been maintaining a growing text file of quotes for over a decade; I have subscribed to a number of quotes emails (more than a handful). For years, I've been using a freeware product which basically merges a random quote from my text file with signature text macros and outputs the result in various file types that I've been able to configure with past and current desktop email clients. In my tech blog's third post, I describe this tool in my own distinctive style.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Paul McCartney & Wings, "With a Little Luck"
