Quote of the Day
Do not throw the arrow which will return against you.
Kurdish Proverb
Bachmann Wins Iowa Straw Poll; Ron Paul Runner-Up
Bachman 29, Paul 28, Pawlenty 14, Santorum 10, Cain 9, Perry (write-in) 4, Romney 3, Gingrich 2 , others (Huntsman, McCotter).
The first thing to observe is that straw polls are not truly representative of voters; Romney has consistently been ahead in GOP field polls. Over the past week, Romney has placed first in CNN, Fox News, McClatchy, and Gallup polls while Bachmann has placed fourth and in only one poll did she clear double-digit percentage (Gallup). Perry (see below) finished second in all 4 polls. Rasmussen early this week showed Bachmann ahead by a single percent over Romney for the Iowa caucus vote.
The fact that Iowa favorite daughter Bachmann won by a single point over Ron Paul, whom tracks in the single-digits to mid-teens in most polls, reflects the fact that the poll strongly reflects the will of activists, say, willing to pay the $30 admission fee (the fact that some candidates, like Pawlenty, picked up the tab for admission, further undermines the credibility of the poll.
Nevertheless, a win is always better than a loss. Clearly the Bachmann and Paul campaigns will live to fight another day. Pawlenty's campaign is clearly in trouble; he has been floundering in the debates, and the fact that he has lately been forced to go negative on a charismatic female candidate, something which is rarely regarded as chivalrous, even though Pawlenty's criticisms of Bachmann are spot on. Governors of blue or purple states like Minnesota have to be pragmatic, and pragmatic Republicans are generally dismissed by activists as "RINO's". Pragmatic candidates are more electable; however, pragmatic candidates are less likely to have a dedicated base during the early caucuses and primaries, I think Pawlenty is basically fighting Romney for the more pragmatist vote, just like Rudy Giuliani found himself competing with John McCain in 2008. I think Romney has done a great job focusing on his business acumen in terms of distinguishing himself from the pack. Cain is the only other candidate with a business executive background, and he lacks public sector experience.
Rick Perry (R-TX) for President? Thumbs UP!
Personally I haven't been a fan of Rick Perry's curious, rather transparent appeal to evangelical conservatives with his recent prayer rally/event, "The Response". It was no accident that he chose South Carolina, the critical first Southern primary state, the winner of which has ended up with the eventual nominee winning for several cycles, to make his announcement. As mentioned above, Perry has already established a leading second-place position in several recent polls. It's fairly clear that Perry is looking to divide-and-conquer the not-Romney field. I expect Romney to dominate the Northeast and west/mid-West.
Perry's declaration of candidacy focuses on the Texas model of the economy with business-friendly tax and regulatory policies. I've also had regular segments featuring lawsuit abuse, and Perry's statement specifically mentioned a "loser-pays" reform against frivolous lawsuits. Whereas progressives are also questioning Perry's rather ordinary scholastic record at Texas A&M, no doubt feeling Obama's "superior intellect" contrasts well with it, one should never underestimate the longest-tenured governor in Texas history whom dispatched Kay Bailey Hutchinson, the senior US Senator from Texas with, of all things, an insurgency campaign. There are other issues which undoubtedly will surface as the campaign progresses; Perry is a more principled fiscal conservative than his predecessor, former President Bush, and the Bush Administration veterans are unhappy with Perry's criticisms. Romney will point out that Perry does not have a comparable business executive background.
Romney: Corporations Are People? Thumbs UP!
It should not have been a surprise about Romney's confrontation with hecklers over the legal personhood of corporations; this has been a sore topic with progressives especially since last year's Citizens United v FEC decision resulted in a highly unethical, unprovoked, unprecedented attack by Barack Obama on the Supreme Court in his State of the Union address. In the eyes of progressives, private-sector companies are less equal than others in terms of supporting political candidates. After all, just because businesses are subject to onerous taxes and regulations or counterproductive trade policies, they shouldn't be allowed to participate in the political process--never mind political decisions affect employment, shareholder (including retiree) dividends, and business expansion. It's only okay for organizations to express their positions if those organizations are part of the Democratic special interest base. As everyone knows, Democratic special interests aren't special interests at all.
It doesn't surprise me that the Democrats are trying to bait Romney into quotes they can use for internal fundraising or for the general election. Let me point out that the general public, moderates and independents realize that a party and administration that manipulates bankruptcy proceedings in favor of crony union interests, invites pharmaceuticals, medical groups, and senior advocacy groups to the table in dealing with entitlements or demands precious federal revenues in giveaway subsidies to green energy firms that can't cut a profit without subsidies are manifestly hypocritical.
The real way you deal with the abuses of crony capitalism is not by trying to manipulate the electoral process but by providing consistent tax policies, not by granting giveaways to special interest industries, forcing other businesses and individuals to pick up their fair share of the tax burden.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Eagles, "Love Will Keep Us Alive". One of the better Eagles v. 2 songs...
