Quote of the Day
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a ouch of genius--and a lot of courage--to move in the opposite direction.
Albert Einstein
Congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge...
Most of us Americans find the idea of a monarchy to be rather quaint and in fact fought a war of independence against the British crown. But however anachronistic the notion of a monarchy in modern days, as a conservative I respect tradition, a sense of unity and continuity with the past. There is, moreover, something wonderful in the fact that the future King of England, Prince William, found the love of his life, Catherine ("Kate") Middleton, not among royal elite, but from the heartland of the untitled but magnificent British people. As I watched the video of the newlyweds exchanging vows, I felt sorry that millions of people were intruding on the privacy of this young couple, a charming gentleman and a beautiful lady. It all boils down to one of my favorite movie scenes of all time (what Julia says, not what Hugh at the time fails to say or do in response):
Miscellaneous Comments
- Palin As Analyst. Well, for the most part, Sarah Palin has stayed off my radar for a while. But I should never underestimate this pseudo-conservative's ability to find ways to annoy me. Sarah Palin as Fox News contributor today was asked to size up the shaping GOP Presidential field (and the inevitable question about her own plans) and about energy policy. On the first question, Sarah somehow managed to filibuster an answer reminiscent of her infamous non-response to the Couric newspaper-and-magazine question in the 2008 interview. In essence, she tried to provide a vaguely positive descriptive summary of various candidates, plus a few generic points (something trite of the nature, it's good for all these people to participate in the process, the American people should have a choice, etc.) This is an inference on my part, but I think she's hedging things in case she decides to enter the race or to avoid burning bridges with whomever does get the nomination and wins the Presidency (e.g., a prospective Energy Department Secretary nominee). FNC President Roger Ailes is not getting any benefit for his money with Palin as an analyst. For example, in discussing Bachmann, Palin did not mention Bachmann's lack of public sector administrative experience, distinctive policy competencies or legislative accomplishments, her limited following in any polls, or her unfavorable rating. In terms of discussing energy and the oil company scapegoats, the
conservativepopulist Palin went back to familiar talking points about how she knew to keep those big oil companies in line (because everybody knows the free market needs government interventionists like Palin taxing the big companies in order to throw dubiously effective tax subsidies at alternative energy...) - Alternative Energy Major Step Forward? French oil company Total bought a controlling interest in Silicon Valley-based SunPower, which competes in the highly competitive solar panel market. Whereas there will no doubt be some synergies by Total being able to leverage its own distribution channels to promote SunPower's products, analysts expect that SunPower will be able to get more financing to participate in the emerging solar farm business, as an alternative energy supplier (recall that California has a state mandate for alternative energy generation). Don't expect this to start a Big Oil gold rush in the solar panel business. You see, just like most private-sector companies saw the Baby Boomer retirements coming and got out of the pension business two decades before state governments have finally caught on maybe they're in trouble, Big Oil dabbled in the solar energy business several years back. I expect any year now, with weak revenues, federal and state governments will suddenly also come to realize how much tangible return they've gotten from all those mandates, tax breaks and/or subsidies.
- Superman Renouncing US Citizenship. Well, I don't think Donald Trump will be impressed with Clark Kent's Kryptonian birth certificate ("who the [expletive deleted] is this Kal-El?"), and I suspect unions, Rush Limbaugh and other media conservatives want to set up a space shield against illegal aliens from other solar systems (to preserve the jobs of "real" American heroes), but an embittered Superman, no doubt influenced by over 2 years of Obama apology tours, was stung by a weapon even more powerful than kryptonite (foreign criticism of his being a tool of the US government) and feels so weakened by the power of the disapproval of others, he now feels compelled to shed his American citizenship to become a citizen of the world. No official word yet from George Soros, but no doubt the Man of Steel is a useful idiot in the pursuit of his dreams towards a one-world government.
- Manufacturing Percentage of GDP a US Phenomenon? Unions and several politicians of the left (Obama), the right (Buchanan) and the profane (Trump) have been portrayed manufacturing as a zero-sum game with other economies (e.g., China vs the US). Economist Mark Perry has an interesting post using UN statistics show that the American pattern of manufacturing as a percent of GDP is comparably paralleled by the international economies.
- China Facing Its Own Demographic Age Tsunami? Chinese President Jintao recently reaffirmed the one-child policy and the latest census shows less than 6% under the age of 10 (versus about 15% in the US 2000 Census) and the percentage of Chinese over 60 rising by an additional 3% to about 13.3% (versus an estimated 18.4% in the US). Replacement is estimated at 2.1%, and current estimates, based on a recent census, are below 1.5%. However, difficulties are more complex in comparison because of cultural gender bias in favor of male children, meaning that many Chinese boys today will be unable to find a spouse when they come of age. Although the Chinese had a baby boom in the 1970's (versus the US' 1950's) (Chairman Mao wanted to ensure national survival in the event of a nuclear war with the USSR), the Chinese may experience a more significant structural problem in due course.
The Demagoguery of Oil Politics
I have little patience for demagoguery from the President, whom seems to vacillate between accepting high energy prices for promoting conservation, restricting domestic oil exploration (shale or offshore), and/or stimulating the development of substitute fuels--and the disingenuous populist whom wants to scapegoat speculators and tax subsidies to oil companies (yes, Obama wants to have his cake and eat it, too; it's his vision of win-win politics):
The attorney general is putting together a team whose job it is to root out any cases of fraud or manipulation in the oil markets that might affect gas prices, and that includes the role of traders and speculators. We're going to make sure that nobody's taking advantage of American consumers for their own short-term gains.
Now I have repeatedly bashed Bill O'Reilly and other populists (like the President) whom seem to think that speculators mysteriously get power over the oil market and force prices up, get outsized profits--and suddenly disappear (rather than hang onto their gains on a recurring basis--go figure). The oil companies have all this power to coax every last dime out of the consumer--and then decide, for some reason, to just give up this power until some point in the future and then repeat the cycle. I mean, if you thought oil was really worth $140/barrel, why would you be the sucker whom sells it for less? The fact is that speculation occurs on both sides of a transaction. Everyone knows that people and businesses do less driving as the cost of driving goes up. Somebody bet the price of oil would go still higher when gas reached an average $4.12 a gallon back in 2008; they then found prices plunging against them (see chart below) and having to take sizable losses unwinding their positions during the economic tsunami and deepening recession. I don't recall Bill O'Reilly and Barack Obama bemoaning the losses being suffered by the speculators or the effects of the shrinking profits of Big Oil on employees, managers and shareholders. There are several facts that most people don't know about Big Oil; in the case of Exxon, for instance, about two-thirds of the sources of retailed products are foreign produced (and those producers get the lion's share of the "real" profits); the take on state and federal excise taxes on gasoline are far higher than the industry profits at retail--and yet Obama and other populists want to scapegoat the "evil" oil companies. Unfortunately, liberals and environmentalists have hobbled domestic production with most "new" domestic oil production coming from just two states: North Dakota and Texas. The real issue here is not "greedy" oil companies--they usually charge a simple markup on relevant products, with the price a reflection of global supply and demand. As usual, government is the problem, not the solution.
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Courtesy of GasBuddy.com |
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
NEI notes:
- weekly update: The various reactor, spent fuel pool, and various radiation levels remain under control. There were two things of note in my takeaway: first, TEPCO backed away from earlier speculation regarding a possible leak in spent fuel pool 4 (briefly referenced in my Wednesday post), saying that water added now seems consistent with evaporation estimates (TEPCO needs to stop this pattern of vacillating press releases); second, a sandbag wall is being built along the Daiichi site to protect against any follow-up tsunami. One important note, from a US perspective, is that an NRC comparative post-audit of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear incident is that the key issues at Fukushima are not relevant for our own nuclear power sites.
The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger references some seemingly inconsistent instrument readings for reactor 1, which may suggest they are unreliable. He also notes that the amount of contaminated water has dropped to about 60,000 tons. He then reviews a number of Hiroshima Syndrome events and lawsuits, in particular, the suicide of a Fukushima area farmer not allowed to sell his produce and some unrest in India where local residents, instigated by anti-nuke fears (e.g., radiation levels in local fishing areas), believe construction of new nuclear power plants is being forced down their throats in earthquake-vulnerable areas
Political Humor
"Donald Trump is now demanding to see Obama’s school records, and wants to know how he got into Harvard. We don’t even know how Bush got into Harvard." - Jay Leno
[Donald Trump-run companies have gone into bankruptcy four times. The Wharton School is trying to figure out how Trump got admitted into its own program and is reviewing his academic record...]
"Trump said he’ll announce whether or not he’s running for president on the final episode of “Celebrity Apprentice.” He’ll be surrounded by political heavyweights like Gary Busey, Latoya Jackson, and Meat Loaf." - David Letterman
[NBC has said if Trump decides to run for President, his Apprentice show will be canceled. So right after Trump "hires" the winner and makes his announcement, an NBC executive will be on hand to conduct their own boardroom and tell the Donald he's fired. No doubt as a limousine takes him away, Donald Trump will be heard saying on camera "[expletive deleted] NBC!"]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
ABBA, "When All Is Said and Done"
