Quote of the Day
Principle -- particularly moral principle -- can never be a weathervane, spinning around this way and that with the shifting winds of expediency. Moral principle is a compass forever fixed and forever true.
Edward R. Lyman
Bill O'Reilly: Why Trump Is Catching On (?)
Bill O' Reilly's Monday night talking point explains that Trump is catching on because the country is moving in the wrong direction and Obama (and Democratic Party) has to accept responsibility for that. I have many issues with Bill O'Reilly's analysis (although O'Reilly leaves himself a lot of wiggle room by talking about if you strip away Trump's promotional nonsense.)
First, I want to point out that Trump is not really catching on, at least if you look at recent polls tracked at RealClearPolitics. Keep in mind Trump has massive name recognition, a currently running popular NBC Sunday prime time show, and a recurring Monday morning interview on FNC; Huckabee has a weekend prime time show on FNC, but Romney has only occasionally been on, e.g., a recent brief Greta Van Susteren's On the Record interview.
You have to admire Trump and Fox News for constantly hyping the results of one April 14 poll, done by PPP (a Democratic pollster), which had Trump at 26, Huckabee 17, Romney 15. But one poll doesn't make a trend. An April 18 McClatchy has Romney 18, Huckabee 17, and Trump 13, and an April 22 poll has Huckabee 16, Trump 16, and Romney 13. Trump trails Romney and/or Huckabee in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida polls. Of the four recent head-to-head polls between Trump trails Obama from between 12 to 16 points.
Now I do not underestimate Trump's ability to promote his candidacy or the impact of money on a political campaign: McCain originally led Obama in Florida by around 10 points, and the Obama campaign turned in around with a war chest that had 2 dollars for every McCain dollar. I am no Karl Rove, but let me tell you: Romney could lob some really damaging blows to Trump: for one, I would have a campaign ad featuring the people whom bought Trump's bonds and lost their money when Trump shed the debt in bankruptcy and ask them whether they would trust Trump with their tax money; I would raise another asking how someone whom ran four companies into bankruptcy can possibly know how to get the nation out of a $14.3T (and climbing) national debt. I think Romney can jump all over Trump's political contributions to ethics-challenged Congressman Charlie Rangel and suggest that Trump is trying to buy the GOP nomination, that Trump has zero public sector experience, nothing of substance to contribute to domestic and foreign policies, and this country can't afford another 4 years of an inexperienced President learning on the job. We need solutions, not political spin. Finally, Trump has high negatives and cannot win the independents and moderates needed to be elected where electability against Obama is the biggest campaign issue.
Now why is Trump resonating with some of the GOP base? In part, Trump is the anti-Obama: he seems bold, decisive, and confident; he is unafraid of directly saying what he means, chips fall where they may. He's tired of hearing the current administration grovel for international support and apologize for American economic and military power; he demands international respect and believes that China is manipulating its currency to grow its economy at our expense.
There are issues with this approach. For one thing, as Obama has learned, promises are easier said than delivered. Second, it's easier to criticize the incumbent than to be the constructive opponents. (House Budget Chair Paul Ryan has provided leadership, not by partisan bickering, but providing a credible framework that has put President Obama on the defensive.) Third, Trump comes with a lot of baggage (including the bankruptcies), seems to be showing a bad first impression by focusing on Obama personally rather than on the issues, appears impulsive as a decision-maker (which could get us into a war we don't want or need or a trade dispute that hurts both sides), and will likely appear to be too polarizing and inexperienced to win the absolutely necessary votes of independents and moderates (just like Sarah Palin). We all know what happened to the more ideological candidates in the Senate races in Nevada (there's no way the GOP should have lost that race with sky-high unemployment there and Reid with high unfavorables), Delaware, Alaska, and Colorado. It's one thing to lose a Senate seat over ideology: are you willing to risk 4 more years of Obama in the White House? Read my lips: TRUMP CAN'T WIN.
So I think O'Reilly central point is wrong. I think he did get some buzz primarily because of a honeymoon period, his celebrity and his ability to cut promos, he's said and done some controversial things ("no such thing as bad publicity"), has engaged in populist China- and Iran-bashing, and the Presidential race has been off to an unusually slow start.
If you saw this past Sunday's episode of Celebrity Apprentice, you know Donald Trump raised the topic of whether he should run for President; he asked for a show of hands of the remaining contestants whom would not vote for him. Nobody, of course, said a word in response. Trump joked that that was good because if they said they were, they would have been fired for being stupid. Oh, by the way: half of the remaining contestants at the start of the show (3 ladies and one gentleman) were people of color. Yeah, Trump, I bet you can count on those votes...
There was an interesting exchange on Cavuto's Your World between guest host Stuart Varney and pollster Frank Luntz. Frank Luntz is willing to bet Trump won't get in. I'm not sure about that, because I don't see why he would be doing as many interviews, reportedly in the initial stages of setting up operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. But there are 3 reasons why I think Luntz may be right: first, I don't see how he wins given his high unfavorables and the existing polls showing Obama clobbering him by double-digits. I'm not sure Trump's ego would let him risk an election loss. Second, I don't think Trump wants to reveal his finances, which could be a goldmine for opponents. Third, Trump is notoriously thin-skinned; for example, he once responded to a printed blog post with a handwritten note, upset that the blogger referenced his "toupee". I guarantee his primary opponents will be talking about more than his hair, and if he somehow got the nomination, just imagine what the Democratic netroots have in mind...
There was an interesting exchange on Cavuto's Your World between guest host Stuart Varney and pollster Frank Luntz. Frank Luntz is willing to bet Trump won't get in. I'm not sure about that, because I don't see why he would be doing as many interviews, reportedly in the initial stages of setting up operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. But there are 3 reasons why I think Luntz may be right: first, I don't see how he wins given his high unfavorables and the existing polls showing Obama clobbering him by double-digits. I'm not sure Trump's ego would let him risk an election loss. Second, I don't think Trump wants to reveal his finances, which could be a goldmine for opponents. Third, Trump is notoriously thin-skinned; for example, he once responded to a printed blog post with a handwritten note, upset that the blogger referenced his "toupee". I guarantee his primary opponents will be talking about more than his hair, and if he somehow got the nomination, just imagine what the Democratic netroots have in mind...
A Baltimore Incident That Went Viral
A week ago yesterday, a 22-year-old transgender woman, Chrissy Polis, was viciously beaten by two young women (a 14-year-old and an 18-year-old) in a Rosedale McDonald's restaurant to the point the victim seemed to experience epileptic seizure after a kick to her head. Ms. Polis had gone into the women's restroom; the women approached Polis, accusing her of being a man in the ladies' restroom, and spat in her face, and dragged her out of the restroom, viciously attacking her. A McDonald's employee filmed the beating doing nothing to intercede (not even contacting the police) but warned the attackers while Polis was having a seizure that police were on the way, and men in the restaurant did nothing to do to stop them (other than to laugh and/or call for them to stop). A middle-aged woman, Vicky Thoms (see below video) tried to intercede and got punched flush in the face. (A video of the attack, presumably filmed from the subsequently fired McDonald's employee, made it onto Youtube.)
Let me be clear: unprovoked assaults are unacceptable, period. Attacking people simply because they're different from you (a different culture/country/language, color, religion, gender lifestyle, size: whatever) is never justifiable. I personally don't know any gay, lesbian or transgender people, but I know for many such people, gender orientation is based on genetics, not personal volition. Exploiting the dignity of a victim by filming him or her contrary to wishes: unconscionable.
A week ago yesterday, a 22-year-old transgender woman, Chrissy Polis, was viciously beaten by two young women (a 14-year-old and an 18-year-old) in a Rosedale McDonald's restaurant to the point the victim seemed to experience epileptic seizure after a kick to her head. Ms. Polis had gone into the women's restroom; the women approached Polis, accusing her of being a man in the ladies' restroom, and spat in her face, and dragged her out of the restroom, viciously attacking her. A McDonald's employee filmed the beating doing nothing to intercede (not even contacting the police) but warned the attackers while Polis was having a seizure that police were on the way, and men in the restaurant did nothing to do to stop them (other than to laugh and/or call for them to stop). A middle-aged woman, Vicky Thoms (see below video) tried to intercede and got punched flush in the face. (A video of the attack, presumably filmed from the subsequently fired McDonald's employee, made it onto Youtube.)
Let me be clear: unprovoked assaults are unacceptable, period. Attacking people simply because they're different from you (a different culture/country/language, color, religion, gender lifestyle, size: whatever) is never justifiable. I personally don't know any gay, lesbian or transgender people, but I know for many such people, gender orientation is based on genetics, not personal volition. Exploiting the dignity of a victim by filming him or her contrary to wishes: unconscionable.
- To the people whom sat by and did nothing (and worse, laughed at the victim of a brutal crime): SHAME ON YOU!
- To Ms. Thoms: you are a worthy hero; I wish there were more people like you, willing to stand up and do the right thing.
- To Ms. Polis: I'm sorry to hear about the terrible, thoughtless things other people do and say to you. I hope that you will see justice for the crimes committed against you, and other people will learn from this tragic experience.
- To the Maryland legislature: let us make sure that the unalienable rights of all people, including transgender people, are protected.
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
IAEA notes:
- daily: About 70,000 contaminated tons of contaminated water remain in the turbine room basements of the main reactors. White smoke still emerging from reactors 2 through 4. There was a transition from external electricity supply to diesel backup over the weekend to work on the external supply. The reactor pressurized vessels demonstrate stable temperature/pressure indicators (some increase for one, while nitrogen injections continue to minimize risk of hydrogen combustion), and additional coolant is injected to the RPV's and added to spent fuel pools as needed. Air and seawater samples remain at steady/decreasing radioactive levels. Most food/milk samples are testing well within LNT safeguards; certain shiitake mushroom sources test restricted, while additional food sources are allowed to distribute products.
Political Humor
"Donald Trump says he’s President Obama’s worst nightmare. That’s not true. Having to make a decision is Obama’s worst nightmare." - Jay Leno
[Obama's worst nightmare is Sasha and Malia refusing to co-sign his loans...]
"A new study found that Americans spend $1.2 trillion every year on stuff they don’t need. Or as Republicans call it, healthcare." - Jimmy Kimmel
[On a separate note, the Committee to Reelect President Obama is expected to raise up to a billion dollars. The rest of that mad money next year is "invested" in Obama's new spending programs...]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
ABBA, "Head Over Heels". Even though the video focuses on Frida, I love Agnetha's hairstyle and simple black outfit in heels in this video: it just works.
