Quote of the Day
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.
Bishop W.C. Magee
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
Sigh! Hiroshima Syndrome is in full panic mode today. A CNN email alert ominously notes "Radioactive water from damaged Japan nuclear plant is leaking into the Pacific Ocean". First of all, iodine has a half-life of 8 days, and the Pacific Ocean is a big, big body of water. Second, the alleged breach is not from the reactor pressurized vessel but a crack in a pit (NOT in the reactor building) where some electrical cables are located. Site workers have been in the process of dewatering various tunnels and basements and discovered this particular defect. It's unlikely that this one pit breach can explain the recent high readings at sea (cf. today's Hiroshima Syndrome post).
NEI notes:
- daily: The NEI blogger basically echoes what I wrote above, noting that TEPCO workers are continuing their search for other leaks. NISA indicates that the concrete fill into the pit is already in process, but assuming the general area has been dewatered and stays that way, we should be able to infer its overall significance from any corresponding reduction in future seawater readings. There is also a discussion of other resources (including international sources) being brought to bear; one key item being a massive hollow floating platform/"island" able to hold up to 18,000 tons of contaminated water. We have the predictable reactive lip service of the NRC to the Fukushima Daiichi incident reassuring American citizens that the same thing won't happen here.
IAEA noted freshwater from the first US barge was temporarily halted due to a connection failure. A second US barge is in transit. Freshwater was pumped into units 1 and 4 spent fuel pools using concrete pumping trucks (the reason I mention this is because others have been speculating on the large concrete pumps being shipped to Japan earlier this week). There's a brief discussion that most farm animals (cattle, pigs, and chickens) have been kept indoors because of the colder winter/spring weather and fed stored foods not impacted by the Fukushima Daiichi incident.
The Atomic Power Review blogger (Will Davis) provides a tongue-in-cheek observation that even now, the US media are catching up to facts known by the blogs I've been following at least by March 15 (i.e., core damage at the 3 problem reactors). He points out, as an example, the Boston Globe, citing Energy Secretary Chu (whom is a secondary source). The problem, of course, is that when the media reports data now, readers may infer that the problem has been deteriorating in the interim, which is not valid.
I do want to quote the first paragraph from his late Friday update. Most people not following the daily progress may not grasping the subtle signs of an incident stabilizing. For example, IAEA several days back noted that it was putting environmental and food samples into the foreground; emergency power gives way to electrical power; seawater has been switched with (preferred) freshwater; there is more emphasis on pinning down debris, dewatering buildings and trenches, checking for component or foundation damage, and other lower priority items.
Latest JAIF status shows fairly stable temperature has been achieved at No. 1 plant. Other data are essentially unchanged. For the first time, it appears as if we can say that there is nearly a stable situation at the site.. there are no massive emergencies that are deflecting efforts and forcing evacuations as had been occurring daily during the first week plus of the accident sequence, and work is focused on a few very important efforts regarding cooling water and removal of contaminated water from places it shouldn't be.
We are even now hearing speculation about the future of the Daiichi site. Davis observes that it is almost a given that the first 4 reactors will be demolished. There were plans to add two more to the site, and reactors 5 and 6 are usable. But it seems difficult to see how Daiichi survives from a political standpoint.
The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger begins today's post with a rant regarding an inconsistency in reported data, which implies at one section that water level has kept the core at least partially uncovered. (My guess is that there is a lot of copy-and-pasting going on and someone has not changed an obsoleted status, which has gone unnoticed.) He feels, as do I, that the pit discovered today is not likely to explain or even most of the recent spike in seawater radiation.
Revised Commentary on the Social Security Crisis
I went back to yesterday's post dealing with the Dems' disingenuous "don't worry; be happy" social security position and revised my discussion. The Democrats rarely discuss issues on their merits; you just get a rehash of long-debunked talking points. Let me attempt to give a more readable, simplified conceptual overview of what's going on. The federal budget includes federal operations plus self-financing entitlement programs. (Medicare is funded by a hodgepodge; I prefer to conceptualize it broadly as self-financing (payroll taxes and plan premiums) and a multi-faceted federal subsidy.)
Federal operations (including federal agencies, domestic programs, defense, interest expense, etc.) are underwritten by a variety of federal revenues (individual and business income taxes, tariffs, excise taxes, etc.) Social security contributions (employee and employer matches) fund existing retiree/beneficiary payments. Any net proceeds adds to the social security reserve.
The social security reserve is compelled to invest in government loan notes, i.e., covering any federal operations deficit.
The federal government finances any operational deficit first recapturing any net social security proceeds and then public Treasury note sales.
The total national debt ultimately reflects accumulated operational deficits. Now a loan is a loan; it doesn't matter whether it represents an obligation to future social security recipients or the Chinese government.
We can think of the reserve right now more like a rainy day fund. Suppose I had a second job which is dedicated to covering my church donations and the remainder into rainy day savings; my first job covers all my other regular expenses. The donations are part of my overall budget. If the hours are cut in my second job, it increases my household deficit because I still have to cover my donations (without income to cover them). It doesn't mean I increase my household debt because I can still cover my donation using my rainy day fund.
The Democrats are saying something like--relax; no need to maybe cut back on church donations or find another job, because even when the rainy day fund is exhausted, we will still have the income from the reduced number of hours in the second job to cover part of our church donations. This is intergenerational stealing; our funding should be robust enough to cover the times we are in recession without leaving the next generations with an empty reserve, and a powerful senior citizen lobbying against any attempt to make the politically difficult decision to reduce benefits. We are now running a PERMANENT social security deficit as the baby boomer generation continues to retire. And yet the Democrats continue to say, not a problem.
President Obama Energy "Plan"? Thumbs DOWN!
I haven't commented on Obama's "energy plan" yet; I think the initial portion was carried by Fox News and they streamed the rest of the presentation; the full video is embedded below, and a transcript of the President's speech is available here.
I'm not going to go point by point here, but I will make a list of comments:
- President Obama is correct in noting that demand, particularly in emerging economies, is outstripping supply. However, he does a poor job addressing the supply side of the equation.
- "So here’s the bottom line – there are no quick fixes." This is definitely not true. President Obama has a number of things he can do now, by canceling the moratorium and releasing new areas for exploration off both coasts, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there are huge areas of shale properties which remain untapped, largely blocked by environmentalist lawsuits. Signs that the US is willing to get serious about adding new supply and relieve competition for supply from oil exporting nations will improve oil prices now. (This is a subtle point many people don't get, but if you think widgets will be worth more in the future, you may want a higher price to part with your widgets today. On the other hand, if you think widgets will be worth less, you may want to sell as many as you can at today's high price.)
- "Presidents and politicians of every stripe have promised energy independence, but that promise has so far gone unmet...But we’ve also run into the same political gridlock and inertia that’s held us back for decades." President Obama, in fact, is part of that gridlock and inertia. Unlike China and Brazil which have announced huge offshore discoveries, offshore drilling off the coasts has been largely banned for political reasons. Obama's limited exploration authorization and post-Deepwater drilling moratorium have made his antipathy clear, not to mention his willingness to accept high fossil fuel prices for its effects on energy demand and/or conservation and his advocacy of climate change initiatives.
- "The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity and security on a resource that will eventually run out." I wonder if today's college students have invented a drinking game for each time Obama says "cannot afford"... What bothers me, of course, is we know exactly where Obama is going with this: "Big Government Knows Best". After all, wasn't it the federal government, not the private sector, which found an alternative to expensive whale blubber? Somehow the private sector oil companies have found a way to supply 250 million vehicles with the fuel they need. No, Barack Obama knows he can't depend on the oil companies to solve the problem on their own...
- "When I was elected to this office, America imported 11 million barrels of oil a day. By a little more than a decade from now, we will have cut that by one-third." We were in a recession, too, with reduced imports. Without the government micromanaging our energy, we have been able to recover additional oil from legacy oil fields with advancements in technology, and we could do more if government got out of the way of exploration.
- "But our best opportunities to enhance our energy security can be found in our own backyard. And we boast one critical, renewable resource the rest of the world cannot match: American ingenuity." American ingenuity requires an unbridled free market, not high taxes, burdensome regulation, and a meddling bureaucracy causing uncertainty.
- "If we continue the work that we have already begun over the last two years, we won’t just spark new jobs, industries and innovations; we will leave your generation and future generations a country that is safer, healthier, and more prosperous." There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that the Obama Administration has done which has sparked "new jobs, industries and innovations" and made us "safer, healthier, and more prosperous". This is incredulous hubris. We currently have the highest corporate tax brackets of any major economies. We didn't need Big Government during the Industrial Revolution. What the Obama Administration has done is thrown massive subsidies at businesses, which remain viable only with government money.
- "Meeting this new goal of cutting our oil dependence depends largely on two things: finding and producing more oil at home, and reducing our dependence on oil with cleaner alternative fuels and greater efficiency....To keep reducing that reliance on imports, my Administration is encouraging offshore oil exploration and production – as long as it’s safe and responsible...Today, we’re working to expedite new drilling permits for companies that meet these standards....So any claim that my Administration is responsible for gas prices because we’ve “shut down” oil production might make for a useful political sound bite – but it doesn’t track with reality. Right now, the industry holds tens of millions of acres of leases where it’s not producing a drop – sitting on supplies of American energy just waiting to be tapped." First of all, Obama fails to note that the offshore industry already had a very good safety record without his arbitrary moratorium and new rules and regulations. Second, a federal judge cited the Obama Administration with contempt for blocking permits; in fact, the Obama Administration has approved permits at rates far below the historical overage. Third, the propaganda about the energy industry not needing new permits because it's already sitting on millions of acres leases it hasn't drilled on is irrational (Obama is describing an artifact of how permits are secured, but apparently Obama and his environmentalist allies "know" there's untapped, feasibly extractable oil there better than veteran wildcatters...)
- "America holds only about two percent of the world’s proven oil reserves." This is a misleading statistic because it is not necessarily indicative of future supply. We currently produce more than 7 million barrels a day of roughly 18 million barrels consumed--plus an extrapolated 8% increase in production each year over the next 25 years, plus some estimates of up to a 25% increase in proven reserves.
- "In terms of new sources of energy, we have a few different options. The first is natural gas....Another substitute for oil that holds tremendous promise is renewable biofuels – not just ethanol, but biofuels made from things like switchgrass, wood chips, and biomass....As we replace oil with fuels like natural gas and biofuels, we can also reduce our dependence by making cars and trucks that use less oil in the first place...That’s why we’ve proposed new programs to help Americans upgrade their homes and businesses and plants with new, energy-efficient building materials." This is same old same old very expensive government micromanagement which does little more than obfuscate the free market economy. Let us provide the example of Government Motors delivering on the electric Chevy Volt (with a 100-mile range between charges). It is on track to sell 3600 vehicles (price $41,000), even with a year-end tax credit/rebate of $7500--out of a production run of 30,000 planned for this year (and 45,000 next year). We don't need to bribe people or organizations to switch to solar paneling if the long-term savings speak for themselves.
So what am I saying? The government should do nothing about energy? No. I think we need to streamline regulations and consumption taxes would raise much needed revenues, lower carbon-based imports and provide a natural incentive for substitute fuels.
Political Humor
The Rod Serling imitation voice-over cracks me up:
A 3-year-old Chinese kid weighs 132 pounds. So now the Chinese are beating us in fat kids too. - Jimmy Kimmel
[On a separate note, the Chinese have expressed interest in sumo wrestling as an Olympic sport...]
An original:
- We can now reveal the inside story of how the Bronx Zoo managed to lead the missing Egyptian cobra back into the reptile house: rat-scented photos of Governor Cuomo, Mayor Bloomberg, President Obama, and, of course, Hosni Mubarak.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Beach Boys, "Be True to Your School". I'm not a fashion guru, but those coordinated shirts would never make it into my wardrobe...
