Miscellany: 4/30/11

Quote of the Day

One man practicing sportsmanship is far better than 50 preaching it.

Knute Rockne

Video: Keynes v Hayek, Round Two

Thanks to Carpe Diem for the tip. Finally, a rap song worth listening to. Will my faithful readers figure out whom I think is the clear winner? HINT: among the books in my bedroom are the volumes The Constitution of Liberty and The Road to Serfdom.

Readership Declines Again, But Stabilizing

April marked my sixth consecutive month in a pageview correction after last October's high point (almost triple the number of page views). My Danish readers regained the international pageview total lead,  with Slovenia a distant second. I will continue to focus on what I regard is one the most distinctive commentary blogs on the web.

Eliminate Oil & Gas Subsidies/Tax Treatment?

Not on Obama's Terms...

I discussed the difference between cost and percentage depletion depreciation in my April 9 post (in theory accumulated percentage depletion can exceed the original development/acquisition costs; I personally oppose any such overage); in my view Obama is pushing to eliminating some $4B in related subsidies, which he purports to do to "reduce the deficit"--and he thinks he's being very clever, with a "divide-and-conquer" strategy among House Republicans, where Speaker Boehner is being manipulated into a unilateral concession to a persistent Democratic demand for years.

Let's be clear about a few points: first of all, President Obama has ZERO credibility when it comes to deficit or debt reduction; he can put lipstick all over that Democratic pig, but it's still a pig. Second, we want COMPREHENSIVE subsidy elimination, not just the oil and gas industry. Obama is back to his same old same old tricks of the government picking winners and losers in the subsidy game, which violates the constitutional principle of equal protection. If Obama REALLY wants to reduce the deficit, he needs to simultaneously end the far more significant alternative energy subsidies. Is Obama willing to cut that deal? Of course not. Is this yet another example of Obama's political opportunism, trying to redirect anger over higher gas prices against the oil companies themselves? Of course. Studies show that the US multinational oil and gas companies pay a higher effective tax rate. Shouldn't the end goal be broad-based reduction of ALL government subsidies and normalizing tax rates at a globally competitive rate?

Would I vote even for a piecemeal attempt to end unsustainable government subsidies in any shape or form? Of course. The President, of course, is playing politics: he wants to go to the people next year accusing the Republicans of being hypocritical on the subject of tax subsidies. This is from the leader of the party that for years argued that Republicans wanted to gut Medicare; yet last year the Democrats essentially double-counted unlikely savings in Medicare, not to shore up Medicare, but to help pay for a new health entitlement. The President is ONLY going to come to agreement with the Republicans when he's willing to make concessions to get to a deal. Trying to embarrass the GOP with a partisan measure, demanding capitulation, is not bipartisanship or leadership.

Wal-Mart CEO Says Its Customers Are Running Out of Money:

The High Cost of Personal Transportation

Given limited raises in a soft labor market, there's no doubt that $50 fill-ups are adversely affecting lower/middle-class shoppers faced with an already tight budget. This is going to affect spending and consumer confidence and possibly trigger a recession. A double-dip recession is written off by many, if not most economists, and "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke seems willing to continue to flood the economy with easy cash to avoid just such a possibility, but we are already seeing a softening of quarterly GDP growth and an uptick in unemployment claims. We are going to have to see sustained growth at the 3%-plus level to see any significant dent in unemployment statistics. High gas prices reflect decades of Democratic Party policies against expanding exploration and development of oil and gas sources. There is no meaningful step towards energy independence trying to pick and choose new exploration areas.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Atomic Power Review notes:

• Friday evening: Nitrogen injections (to control against hydrogen explosions)  into primary containment of reactor 1 had stopped but recommenced. Reactor temperatures continue to decline, particularly in the reactor 1 pressurized vessel, but the interim higher injection inflow was reduced to assess conditions.  Robot inspections of reactor 1 confirm that primary containment is not leaking. Large cranes continue to remove debris, with ongoing anti-scattering sprays to limit airborne radioactive particles.

Political Humor

Photo Courtesy of George Pimentel, WireImage

Prince William's 3-year-old goddaughter and bridesmaid Grace Van Cutsems thinks the second kiss of the prince and his bride Catherine is yucky.... Or 'This wasn't like any of the Disney movies I've seen.'...Or she just saw the bill for the event... Or she thinks it is her turn to wear the tiara.

A few originals:

• President Obama said at the press event on releasing his long form birth certificate, "We're not going to be able to solve our problems if we get distracted by sideshows and carnival barkers." Carnival professionals were deeply offended by being compared to Donald Trump and Celebrity Apprentice. And, for that matter, Uncle Sam's circus on Capitol Hill.
• Donald Trump is really proud of himself for getting President Obama to release the long form birth certificate. And once elected President, he'll deal even more vexing issues, like resolving once and for all: is Elvis Presley's death certificate a fake?

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "The Day Before You Came"

Miscellany: 4/29/11

Quote of the Day

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a ouch of genius--and a lot of courage--to move in the opposite direction.

Albert Einstein

Congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge...

Most of us Americans find the idea of a monarchy to be rather quaint and in fact fought a war of independence against the British crown. But however anachronistic the notion of a monarchy in modern days, as a conservative I respect tradition, a sense of unity and continuity with the past. There is, moreover, something wonderful in the fact that the future King of England, Prince William, found the love of his life, Catherine ("Kate") Middleton, not among royal elite, but from the heartland of the untitled but magnificent British people. As I watched the video of the newlyweds exchanging vows, I felt sorry that millions of people were intruding on the privacy of this young couple, a charming gentleman and a beautiful lady. It all boils down to one of my favorite movie scenes of all time (what Julia says, not what Hugh at the time fails to say or do in response):

Miscellaneous Comments

• Palin As Analyst. Well, for the most part, Sarah Palin has stayed off my radar for a while. But I should never underestimate this pseudo-conservative's ability to find ways to annoy me. Sarah Palin as Fox News contributor today was asked to size up the shaping GOP Presidential field (and the inevitable question about her own plans) and about energy policy. On the first question, Sarah somehow managed to filibuster an answer reminiscent of her infamous non-response to the Couric newspaper-and-magazine question in the 2008 interview. In essence, she tried to provide a vaguely positive descriptive summary of various candidates, plus a few generic points (something trite of the nature, it's good for all these people to participate in the process, the American people should have a choice, etc.)  This is an inference on my part, but I think she's hedging things in case she decides to enter the race or to avoid burning bridges with whomever does get the nomination and wins the Presidency (e.g., a prospective Energy Department Secretary nominee). FNC President Roger Ailes is not getting any benefit for his money with Palin as an analyst. For example, in discussing Bachmann, Palin did not mention Bachmann's lack of public sector administrative experience, distinctive policy competencies or legislative accomplishments, her limited following in any polls, or her unfavorable rating. In terms of discussing energy and the oil company scapegoats, the conservative populist Palin went back to familiar talking points about how she knew to keep those big oil companies in line (because everybody knows the free market needs government interventionists like Palin taxing the big companies in order to throw dubiously effective tax subsidies at alternative energy...)
• Alternative Energy Major Step Forward? French oil company Total bought a controlling interest in Silicon Valley-based SunPower, which competes in the highly competitive solar panel market. Whereas there will no doubt be some synergies by Total being able to leverage its own distribution channels to promote SunPower's products, analysts expect that SunPower will be able to get more financing to participate in the emerging solar farm business, as an alternative energy supplier (recall that California has a state mandate for alternative energy generation). Don't expect this to start a Big Oil gold rush in the solar panel business. You see, just like most private-sector companies saw the Baby Boomer retirements coming and got out of the pension business two decades before state governments have finally caught on maybe they're in trouble, Big Oil dabbled in the solar energy business several years back. I expect any year now, with weak revenues, federal and state governments will suddenly also come to realize how much tangible return they've gotten from all those mandates, tax breaks and/or subsidies.
• Superman Renouncing US Citizenship. Well, I don't think Donald Trump will be impressed with Clark Kent's Kryptonian birth certificate ("who the [expletive deleted] is this Kal-El?"), and I suspect unions, Rush Limbaugh and other media conservatives want to set up a space shield against illegal aliens from other solar systems (to preserve the jobs of "real" American heroes), but an embittered Superman, no doubt influenced by over 2 years of Obama apology tours, was stung by a weapon even more powerful than kryptonite (foreign criticism of his being a tool of the US government) and feels so weakened by the power of the disapproval of others, he now feels compelled to shed his American citizenship to become a citizen of the world. No official word yet from George Soros, but no doubt the Man of Steel is a useful idiot in the pursuit of his dreams towards a one-world government.
• Manufacturing Percentage of GDP a US Phenomenon? Unions and several politicians of the left (Obama), the right (Buchanan) and the profane (Trump) have been portrayed manufacturing as a zero-sum game with other economies (e.g., China vs the US). Economist Mark Perry has an interesting post using UN statistics show that the American pattern of manufacturing as a percent of GDP is comparably paralleled by the international economies.
• China Facing Its Own Demographic Age Tsunami? Chinese President Jintao recently reaffirmed the one-child policy and the latest census shows less than 6% under the age of 10 (versus about 15% in the US 2000 Census) and the percentage of Chinese over 60 rising by an additional 3% to about 13.3% (versus an estimated 18.4% in the US). Replacement is estimated at 2.1%, and current estimates, based on a recent census, are below 1.5%. However, difficulties are more complex in comparison because of cultural gender bias in favor of male children, meaning that many Chinese boys today will be unable to find a spouse when they come of age. Although the Chinese had a baby boom in the 1970's (versus the US' 1950's) (Chairman Mao wanted to ensure national survival in the event of a nuclear war with the USSR), the Chinese may experience a more significant structural problem in due course.

Chinese Census Highlights Problems With... by NewsyVideos

The Demagoguery of Oil Politics

I have little patience for demagoguery from the President, whom seems to vacillate between accepting high energy prices for promoting conservation, restricting domestic oil exploration (shale or offshore), and/or stimulating the development of substitute fuels--and the disingenuous populist whom wants to scapegoat speculators and tax subsidies to oil companies (yes, Obama wants to have his cake and eat it, too; it's his vision of win-win politics): 

The attorney general is putting together a team whose job it is to root out any cases of fraud or manipulation in the oil markets that might affect gas prices, and that includes the role of traders and speculators. We're going to make sure that nobody's taking advantage of American consumers for their own short-term gains.

Now I have repeatedly bashed Bill O'Reilly and other populists (like the President) whom seem to think that speculators mysteriously get power over the oil market and force prices up, get outsized profits--and suddenly disappear (rather than hang onto their gains on a recurring basis--go figure). The oil companies have all this power to coax every last dime out of the consumer--and then decide, for some reason, to just give up this power until some point in the future and then repeat the cycle. I mean, if you thought oil was really worth $140/barrel, why would you be the sucker whom sells it for less? The fact is that speculation occurs on both sides of a transaction. Everyone knows that people and businesses do less driving as the cost of driving goes up. Somebody bet the price of oil would go still higher when gas reached an average $4.12 a gallon back in 2008; they then found prices plunging against them (see chart below) and having to take sizable losses unwinding their positions during the economic tsunami and deepening recession. I don't recall Bill O'Reilly and Barack Obama bemoaning the losses being suffered by the speculators or the effects of the shrinking profits of Big Oil on employees, managers and shareholders. There are several facts that most people don't know about Big Oil; in the case of Exxon, for instance, about two-thirds of the sources of retailed products are foreign produced (and those producers get the lion's share of the "real" profits); the take on state and federal excise taxes on gasoline are far higher than the industry profits at retail--and yet Obama and other populists want to scapegoat the "evil" oil companies. Unfortunately, liberals and environmentalists have hobbled domestic production with most "new" domestic oil production coming from just two states: North Dakota and Texas. The real issue here is not "greedy" oil companies--they usually charge a simple markup on relevant products, with the price a reflection of global supply and demand. As usual, government is the problem, not the solution. 

Courtesy of GasBuddy.com

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

NEI notes:

• weekly update: The various reactor, spent fuel pool, and various radiation levels remain under control. There were two things of note in my takeaway: first, TEPCO backed away from earlier speculation regarding a possible leak in spent fuel pool 4 (briefly referenced in my Wednesday post), saying that water added now seems consistent with evaporation estimates (TEPCO needs to stop this pattern of vacillating press releases); second, a sandbag wall is being built along the Daiichi site to protect against any follow-up tsunami. One important note, from a US perspective, is that an NRC comparative post-audit of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear incident is that the key issues at Fukushima are not relevant for our own nuclear power sites.

The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger references some seemingly inconsistent instrument readings for reactor 1, which may suggest they are unreliable. He also notes that the amount of contaminated water has dropped to about 60,000 tons. He then reviews a number of Hiroshima Syndrome events and lawsuits, in particular, the suicide of a Fukushima area farmer not allowed to sell his produce and some unrest in India where local residents, instigated by anti-nuke fears (e.g., radiation levels in local fishing areas), believe construction of new nuclear power plants is being forced down their throats in earthquake-vulnerable areas

Political Humor

"Donald Trump is now demanding to see Obama’s school records, and wants to know how he got into Harvard. We don’t even know how Bush got into Harvard." - Jay Leno

[Donald Trump-run companies have gone into bankruptcy four times. The Wharton School is trying to figure out how Trump got admitted into its own program and is reviewing his academic record...]

"Trump said he’ll announce whether or not he’s running for president on the final episode of “Celebrity Apprentice.” He’ll be surrounded by political heavyweights like Gary Busey, Latoya Jackson, and Meat Loaf." - David Letterman

[NBC has said if Trump decides to run for President, his Apprentice show will be canceled. So right after Trump "hires" the winner and makes his announcement, an NBC executive will be on hand to conduct their own boardroom and tell the Donald he's fired. No doubt as a limousine takes him away, Donald Trump will be heard saying on camera "[expletive deleted] NBC!"]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "When All Is Said and Done"

Miscellany: 4/28/11

Quote of the Day

We have, I fear, confused power with greatness.

Stewart Udall

American Red Cross Tornado Relief

I know in the Baltimore area, we've gone through several tornado warnings over the past 24 hours, but the real story is the worst cluster of tornadoes in nearly 40 years, with nearly 300 dead over 12 states and Alabama alone accounting for two-thirds of the casualties and a million of our fellow citizens without power in just that one state. The American Red Cross has provided food and shelter for up to 2700 people. To people volunteering their time, effort, and resources to help our fellow citizens, I salute you; I welcome others to join me in contributing to the American Red Cross. I have a link to a donation page in the heading above (if you don't trust embedded links, go to www.redcross.org).

Corsi, Fox News, Trump, et al.

You didn't expect the story (about Obama's now released long-form birth certificate) to go away, did you? Not with Corsi with soon-to-be-released book on the "issue". He sent out an email today pointing out that his problem with the certificate has nothing to do with the additional information on the long form but with the certificate number (which he notes is the same for the both the short and long forms). He argues that birth certificate numbers were assigned (after the birth fact) in strictly ascending sequence by a single-threaded state process unique/one-time-only numbering scheme, and certain girls supposedly born in the same hospital after Obama have lower certificate numbers.

Now I'm sure there's more to Corsi's book and I have little interest in promoting his book or rebutting it in detail (any more than I feel it necessary to spend my time refuting people whom believe the earth is flat), but let's just assume everything he says is true, for the sake of argument. What does that prove? All we can conclude from that scenario is that Obama's certificate was processed out of sequence. There could be a variety of reasons I can speculate as to how that could have happened, e.g., from batch processing of certificates out of date/time sequence to a procedural delay in processing Obama's certificate (say, because of missing information). I might be more impressed if Corsi found a coincidence of Obama's certificate number with another Hawaiian native's. (Without knowing more about circumstances, I can easily conjecture related issues. For example, at a past employer, there were occasional printer issues running company payment processes using numbered blank company checks. We would have to reset the printer, modify the payment batch, and resubmit the job.)

Unfortunately, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig: it was the conspiracy theorists whom argued that the short-form birth certificate couldn't be trusted and constantly pushed for the long form. I heard Sean Hannity (whom is repetitive) questioning why Obama didn't provide it sooner. Well, if Sean understood the facts, he would have known that the state of Hawaii doesn't provide a copy of the long form even to the person whose name is on the birth certificate; Obama had to obtain a policy waiver.

Rev. Franklin Graham asked Sunday, "I don't understand why Obama doesn't go ahead and provide the (long-form) birth certificate--I have one." This is sort of like a policeman asking you if you didn't kill your (living) mother with an ax, what do you have to lose by agreeing to take a polygraph? What do I have to gain from complying with a frivolous, unconscionable request? I know I didn't do anything--I have to jump through someone else's hoop, satisfy somebody else's curiosity whom is implicitly suggesting perhaps I killed my own mother, an outrageous allegation under any circumstance? Maybe I don't like being dared as if I was still on the playground in grade school (not to mention the fact that there's always a risk the technology could yield a false positive...); most people aren't being asked if they murdered their mothers... The point is--who do you think you are to make outrageous demands of another person? The burden of proof is on the police (or the conspiracy theorist).

I've had to take drug tests over the years for a variety of jobs or subcontracts (rules for any incoming worker by the company in question). I have nothing to hide, but it's a hassle to go to a clinic and have the sample taken (never mind the presumptuousness of the requirement). I remember one party sensed some reluctance on my part and noted to "ease my mind" after the fact that the test came out fine. As if I didn't know that! [I did have colleagues whom perpetually worried about eating a hamburger on a poppy-seed bun...] I had a near-full pain pill bottle after recovery from a minor surgery a couple of years back.

If, in the case of Obama, for legal purposes (to get a driver's license, register to vote or provide documentation for your I-9), the short form is considered to be sufficient, what right does any birther have to say, "I don't care if the short form satisfies the government--the short form doesn't satisfy MY standard of proof..."

Fox News had a decidedly negative impression of President Obama coming out to personally discuss release of the long form yesterday, particularly saying that it was time for the silliness to end, that it was a distraction (and then you had the usual judgmental nonsense where numerous others noted that Obama had time to fly to Chicago to visit key supporter, talk show host Oprah, whom is wrapping up her daytime talk show over the next few days, and to attend a couple of fundraisers). I can't stress enough how annoying I find this sort of pettiness on the part of FNC personalities and several media conservatives. Hearing that Rush Limbaugh give Donald Trump credit for wearing down Obama on the long-form certificate just reinforces the growing irrelevance of the media conservatives. Granted, the media conservatives like Hannity and Bachmann are trying to walk a thin line, saying they had never been birthers, but defended the right of birthers to raise "important questions" which deserved to be answered. I absolutely disagree. One FNC morning anchor sounded angry, demanding to know whom called it a "fake issue".  Let me make myself clear to Fox News and various anchors and news contributors: I'm calling it a fake issue. The fact of the matter is that Donald Trump--with all the bigger stuff to discuss--the Ponzi scheme of entitlements, trillions in the national debt and a struggling economy with millions out of work--chose to focus on Obama personally, not his policies.

From a political standpoint, personal attacks on Obama are absolutely incompetent and counterproductive--Obama has high personal favorable ratings. Have these angry media conservatives learned NOTHING from the loss of several key Senate seats last fall? Who would you rather control the Senate--Mitch McConnell or  Harry Reid? Trump is trying to win the battle, but he's going to lose the war: RED MEAT IS A COMPLETE TURN-OFF WITH MODERATES AND INDEPENDENTS.  Romney is saying exactly the right things: he's saying that Obama is a nice guy, but he just doesn't understand how the economy works.

I have to smile when Trump promises a "surprise" announcement following the final episode of Celebrity Apprentice in a few weeks. Well, let's analyze that. If he wasn't running, there would be no point to setting up operations and/or visiting Iowa and New Hampshire; if he wasn't running, he wouldn't wait until after Celebrity Apprentice to announce that, and he wouldn't have raised the topic of running on his TV show. No, I think he's trying to build a buzz so he can maximize eyeballs for his announcement...

On the State Front....

Well, when you have a Democratic governor and a Democratic-controlled state House in blue state Massachusetts and unsustainable current/retired state or municipal employee costs, you have no choice but to do things like curtail collective bargaining rights for health care. You know what this means for Governor Patrick: union supporters are going to paste Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)'s face over his on protest signs... Congratulations, Massachusetts: at least in one case, the rights of the taxpayer are being represented; let's hope that the state senate is also intent on representing the people instead of special interests.

This clip focuses on the states' mishandling pensions. In essence, state legislators have been hoping for pension fund earnings to limit the need for the states to kick in more to meet pension checks. The private sector has been saying for years that states have been overestimating returns so they won't have to have to kick in more money, but the states have been painting themselves into a corner....

Political Humor

David Letterman/Late Show

Top Ten Surprises On Barack Obama's Birth Certificate

10. Was born at a luau

9. Parents crossed out original choice for first name, "Gary"  Brock

4. Under "Conspiracy?” They checked "No"

3. Document notarized by Magnum P.I.

1. Fine print at bottom: Not an actual birth certificate

[ 8. Under "Doctor", "Kildare"

7. Under "County, State or Foreign County": "Kenya  Honolulu, Hawaii"

6. Under "Natural Born?" They checked "Yes"

5. Under "Signature of Witness": "Steve McGarrett, Hawaii 5-O"

2. Under "Date Conceived": "March 7, 1965 (after the Selma march)"]

An original:

• Donald Trump raised questions about Barack Obama's citizenship at birth in Honolulu, HI, but not about his endorsed 2008 candidate John McCain*, whom was born at Coco Solo Naval Air Station in the Panama Canal Zone. When asked to explain, Trump said, "I thought he was born in Panama City, FL..."

* Some will point out that military bases overseas are considered American property. However, foreign-born children of American citizens are considered natural born citizens by birth.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

IAEA notes:

• Wednesday: As of late Monday, white smoke was no longer observed leaving reactor 4 facilities. Smoke continued to be observed from reactors 2 and 3. Thirty-nine samples of food/raw milk from the Fukushima region from last Friday through Tuesday showed all within LNT safety thresholds.
• today: Ongoing scattering agent (to minimize risk of radioactive particle drift from area debris) continued to the east of the Reactor 3 buildings.

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (A Man After Midnight)"

Miscellany: 4/27/11

Quote of the Day

What is said over the dead lion's body could not be said to him alive.

Zairean proverb

China Bashing, Trump Edition

When Donald Trump wants to "punish" China by adding a 25% tariff to imported goods, like those $70 Trump signature collection shirts made in the USA China, this is just a reminder that the tariff gets passed along to you, the consumer. PS. Perhaps the Donald meant that you shouldn't buy the merchandise he has made in China, but the other items in the collection are manufactured in Mexico or Bangladesh. (It's the Trump program for spreading the jobs around.)

Courtesy of Salon

Obama Releases Long-Form Birth Certificate

Trump's Press Conference:

Predictable Nonsense on the Birther Issue

I recall one time that privacy restrictions were counterproductive. When I busted a group of Asian students for plagiarizing on a graduate systems analysis project at UWM, I had traced almost all of the material back to source materials except one source, which I did not have access to and which I knew would contain the remaining content. I was facing a procedural deadline; the library had only one copy--and of course it was checked out (in fact, had just renewed by the student). I wanted the book recalled on an expedited basis; that request was rejected. There was no time to secure a second copy via interlibrary loan. The library furthermore refused to identify the student's identification, the salient issue in this case. In essence, the library's procedures on privacy acted against enforcement of academic dishonesty policies. (It turned out that I didn't need it as two of the students immediately confessed when I called in the group; I've written about the defiant holdout in previous posts, whom dismissed this idea about plagiarism as "an American cultural phenomenon" and went on to subsequently plagiarize under at least two other colleagues, which I myself diagnosed at their request.)

There were other issues I encountered in academia of a similar nature; other edicts came from administrators, e.g., we could no longer post grades via social security numbers (typically, the student id), because they weren't regarded as sufficiently private. (Don't you just love how companies, under the guise of protecting one's privacy, expect you to memorize their idiosyncratic 16-digit account or credit card numbers?) We can certainly mention other examples from, say, television dramas (an adopted child unable to identify his or her natural parent).

Now, most of us have birth certificate/short-form copies we use for whatever official purposes (in my case, those included things like joining the Navy, getting an initial driver's license and/or obtaining my passport). In the case of Hawaii, they normally don't even release copies of the long form to the person listed on the birth certificate. (President Obama had to be granted a waiver of existing state policy.) I don't know what the precise issue for birthers was: on multiple occasions, state officials verified the long form was on file. There were birth announcements in local newspapers on file. The question is why anyone would put credence in an unlikely conspiracy theory; what would motivate Trump to resurrect what I have always regarded as a fake issue? In my view, Trump needs to explain why, with a $14.3T debt, a massive government bureaucracy, over $50T in unfunded entitlement liabilities, and millions unemployed since the recession started in late 2007, he's looking at Obama's birth as an issue? The people aren't interested in partisanship and bickering; they are looking for leadership, judgment, experience and character. 

I didn't see why Obama released it at this time (except possibly skepticism was growing, in large part due to Donald Trump's obsession with the issue and the teaser that he had uncovered something); if I was playing Obama's hand, I would have bided my time until Trump was the nominee and brought it up at a debate, making the perfect setup to damage Trump's credibility. 

But Trump's reaction was predictable; if a reader had asked me yesterday what Trump's reaction would have been, I would have predicted exactly what he in fact did: claim credit for getting Obama to do something he had refused to do for 3 years; caution people until he had a chance to scrutinize the long form document (because, well you know, Obama's buddy is the governor of Hawaii: keep hope alive for the conspiracy theorists); say FINALLY we can move on to the next issue (the $14.3T debt? No... Obama's grades). Of course, nobody else thought with the debt ceiling coming up, the nature of Medicare reform, military involvement with 3 different countries, etc.--we had to put everything on hold until Trump was satisfied about Obama's birth. But thanks for giving us permission, Mr. Trump, to move on...

The next "real issue" for Trump? Oil prices. OH, PLEASE. Is there any conservative on earth that believes Trump is a true conservative on this (or any other) issue? Have we heard Trump attack Obama for the fact that Cuba has offshore properties for oil exploration closer to Florida than any domestic explorer is allowed to drill off Florida's cost? No--Trump is attacking Obama not on the fact we hold vast amounts of oil and gas in shale properties and offshore, hobbled by Obama's policies (including environmental ones), so we have to buy someone else's oil and/or gas (paying for their costs, including their own workers). No, Trump thinks the issue is we don't have shrewder wheeler-dealers in place jawboning OPEC into pumping more oil. There's a problem because the world demand for oil is increasing more rapidly than any spare capacity of supplies can come online.

Trump sees himself as the ultimate wheeler-dealer; I see him as a crony capitalist. The last thing I want to see is a Presidential debate where Obama and Trump fight over whom could negotiate the best deal on prescription drugs for Medicare. The best approach to competitive pricing is improved pricing information and streamlined procedures for alternative drug approval.

Beck Show Correction

On Beck's show today, he reviewed some examples of bad behavior--including ironically a clear reference to the Baltimore area McDonald's incident I wrote about yesterday. Beck implied this was a dispute over a boyfriend that exploded out of control. In fact, the victim was a transgender young woman, whom the teenage girl attackers accused of being a perverted male in the ladies room.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Atomic Power Review notes:

• Wednesday morning: They are upping the injection flow to the reactor 1 reactor pressurized vessel. TEPCO is estimating there is at least some minor structural damage to spent fuel pool 4 because they are having to add more water than can be accounted for by evaporation.
• revised core damage estimates: TEPCO has lowered the fuel damage estimate for reactor 1 from 70% to 55% (because the relevant radiation readings aren't consistent with the suspected damage estimate) while rounding up the damage to the final two reactors by another 5% up, to 35% and 30% respectively.

The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger, in passing noting across-the-board improving conditions at Fukushima Daiichi (airborne, seawater, RPV temperature/pressure, etc.),  mostly focused on this week's 25th anniversary of Chernobyl noting a disingenuous attempt of Russian President Medvedev implying that Japan is just as tainted from lack of public disclosure with Fukushima Daiichi as Chernobyl; he also reviews conceptually flawed comparisons between Chernobyl and the Hiroshima nuclear attack.

Political Humor

"It was just revealed that Donald Trump hasn’t voted in primary elections in over 20 years. Or in simpler terms, Trump hasn’t voted in primary elections in over three wives." - Jimmy Fallon

[Trump doesn't believe in foreplay; he wants to go straight to the main event...]

"Donald Trump is now attacking President Obama’s grades, suggesting that he was a poor student. First it was the birth certificate, and now the grades. Trump won’t be happy until he proves that Obama doesn’t exist." - Jimmy Kimmel

[First, Trump needed proof that Obama was born. Next, he wants proof that Obama graduated. You know where he's heading next: checking Obama's job history and references. I can predict that he's going to have some problems with Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers...]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "One of Us"

Miscellany: 4/26/11

Quote of the Day

Principle -- particularly moral principle -- can never be a weathervane, spinning around this way and that with the shifting winds of expediency. Moral principle is a compass forever fixed and forever true.

Edward R. Lyman

Bill O'Reilly: Why Trump Is Catching On (?)

Bill O' Reilly's Monday night talking point explains that Trump is catching on because the country is moving in the wrong direction and Obama (and Democratic Party) has to accept responsibility for that. I have many issues with Bill O'Reilly's analysis (although O'Reilly leaves himself a lot of wiggle room by talking about if you strip away Trump's promotional nonsense.)

First, I want to point out that Trump is not really catching on, at least if you look at recent polls tracked at RealClearPolitics. Keep in mind Trump has massive name recognition, a currently running popular NBC Sunday prime time show, and a recurring Monday morning interview on FNC; Huckabee has a weekend prime time show on FNC, but Romney has only occasionally been on, e.g., a recent brief Greta Van Susteren's On the Record interview.

You have to admire Trump and Fox News for constantly hyping the results of one April 14 poll, done by PPP (a Democratic pollster), which had Trump at 26, Huckabee 17, Romney 15. But one poll doesn't make a trend. An April 18 McClatchy has Romney 18, Huckabee 17, and Trump 13, and an April 22 poll has Huckabee 16, Trump 16, and Romney 13. Trump trails Romney and/or Huckabee in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida polls. Of the four recent head-to-head polls between Trump trails Obama from between 12 to 16 points.

Now I do not underestimate Trump's ability to promote his candidacy or the impact of money on a political campaign: McCain originally led Obama in Florida by around 10 points, and the Obama campaign turned in around with a war chest that had 2 dollars for every McCain dollar. I am no Karl Rove, but let me tell you: Romney could lob some really damaging blows to Trump: for one, I would have a campaign ad featuring the people whom bought Trump's bonds and lost their money when Trump shed the debt in bankruptcy and ask them whether they would trust Trump with their tax money; I would raise another asking how someone whom ran four companies into bankruptcy can possibly know how to get the nation out of a $14.3T (and climbing) national debt. I think Romney can jump all over Trump's political contributions to ethics-challenged Congressman Charlie Rangel and suggest that Trump is trying to buy the GOP nomination, that Trump has zero public sector experience, nothing of substance to contribute to domestic and foreign policies, and this country can't afford another 4 years of an inexperienced President learning on the job. We need solutions, not political spin. Finally, Trump has high negatives and cannot win the independents and moderates needed to be elected where electability against Obama is the biggest campaign issue.

Now why is Trump resonating with some of the GOP base? In part, Trump is the anti-Obama: he seems bold, decisive, and confident; he is unafraid of directly saying what he means, chips fall where they may. He's tired of hearing the current administration grovel for international support and apologize for American economic and military power; he demands international respect and believes that China is manipulating its currency to grow its economy at our expense.

There are issues with this approach. For one thing, as Obama has learned, promises are easier said than delivered. Second, it's easier to criticize the incumbent than to be the constructive opponents. (House Budget Chair Paul Ryan has provided leadership, not by partisan bickering, but providing a credible framework that has put President Obama on the defensive.) Third, Trump comes with a lot of baggage (including the bankruptcies), seems to be showing a bad first impression by focusing on Obama personally rather than on the issues, appears impulsive as a decision-maker (which could get us into a war we don't want or need or a trade dispute that hurts both sides), and will likely appear to be too polarizing and inexperienced to win the absolutely necessary votes of independents and moderates (just like Sarah Palin). We all know what happened to the more ideological candidates in the Senate races in Nevada (there's no way the GOP should have lost that race with sky-high unemployment there and Reid with high unfavorables), Delaware, Alaska, and Colorado. It's one thing to lose a Senate seat over ideology: are you willing to risk 4 more years of Obama in the White House? Read my lips: TRUMP CAN'T WIN.

So I think O'Reilly central point is wrong. I think he did get some buzz primarily because of a honeymoon period, his celebrity and his ability to cut promos, he's said and done some controversial things ("no such thing as bad publicity"), has engaged in populist China- and Iran-bashing, and the Presidential race has been off to an unusually slow start.

If you saw this past Sunday's episode of Celebrity Apprentice, you know Donald Trump raised the topic of whether he should run for President; he asked for a show of hands of the remaining contestants whom would not vote for him. Nobody, of course, said a word in response. Trump joked that that was good because if they said they were, they would have been fired for being stupid. Oh, by the way: half of the remaining contestants at the start of the show (3 ladies and one gentleman) were people of color. Yeah, Trump, I bet you can count on those votes...

There was an interesting exchange on Cavuto's Your World between guest host Stuart Varney and pollster Frank Luntz. Frank Luntz is willing to bet Trump won't get in. I'm not sure about that, because I don't see why he would be doing as many interviews, reportedly in the initial stages of setting up operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. But there are 3 reasons why I think Luntz may be right: first, I don't see how he wins given his high unfavorables and the existing polls showing Obama clobbering him by double-digits. I'm not sure Trump's ego would let him risk an election loss. Second, I don't think Trump wants to reveal his finances, which could be a goldmine for opponents. Third, Trump is notoriously thin-skinned; for example, he once responded to a printed blog post with a handwritten note, upset that the blogger referenced his "toupee". I guarantee his primary opponents will be talking about more than his hair, and if he somehow got the nomination, just imagine what the Democratic netroots have in mind...

A Baltimore Incident That Went Viral

A week ago yesterday, a 22-year-old transgender woman, Chrissy Polis, was viciously beaten by two young women (a 14-year-old and an 18-year-old) in a Rosedale McDonald's restaurant to the point the victim seemed to experience epileptic seizure after a kick to her head. Ms. Polis had gone into the women's restroom; the women approached Polis, accusing her of being a man in the ladies' restroom, and spat in her face, and dragged her out of the restroom, viciously attacking her. A McDonald's employee filmed the beating doing nothing to intercede (not even contacting the police) but warned the attackers while Polis was having a seizure that police were on the way, and men in the restaurant did nothing to do to stop them (other than to laugh and/or call for them to stop). A middle-aged woman, Vicky Thoms (see below video) tried to intercede and got punched flush in the face. (A video of the attack, presumably filmed from the subsequently fired McDonald's employee, made it onto Youtube.)

Let me be clear: unprovoked assaults are unacceptable, period. Attacking people simply because they're different from you (a different culture/country/language, color, religion, gender lifestyle, size: whatever) is never justifiable. I personally don't know any gay, lesbian or transgender people, but I know for many such  people, gender orientation is based on genetics, not personal volition. Exploiting the dignity of a victim by filming him or her contrary to wishes: unconscionable.

• To the people whom sat by and did nothing (and worse, laughed at the victim of a brutal crime): SHAME ON YOU! 
• To Ms. Thoms: you are a worthy hero; I wish there were more people like you, willing to stand up and do the right thing.
• To Ms. Polis: I'm sorry to hear about the terrible, thoughtless things other people do and say to you. I hope that you will see justice for the crimes committed against you, and other people will learn from this tragic experience. 
• To the Maryland legislature: let us make sure that the unalienable rights of all people, including transgender people, are protected.

 

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

IAEA notes:

• daily:  About 70,000 contaminated tons of contaminated water remain in the turbine room basements of the main reactors. White smoke still emerging from reactors 2 through 4. There was a transition from external electricity supply to diesel backup over the weekend to work on the external supply. The reactor pressurized vessels demonstrate stable temperature/pressure indicators (some increase for one, while nitrogen injections continue to minimize risk of hydrogen combustion), and additional coolant is injected to the RPV's and added to spent fuel pools as needed. Air and seawater samples remain at steady/decreasing radioactive levels. Most food/milk samples are testing well within LNT safeguards; certain shiitake mushroom sources test restricted, while additional food sources are allowed to distribute products.

Political Humor

"Donald Trump says he’s President Obama’s worst nightmare. That’s not true. Having to make a decision is Obama’s worst nightmare." - Jay Leno

[Obama's worst nightmare is Sasha and Malia refusing to co-sign his loans...]

"A new study found that Americans spend $1.2 trillion every year on stuff they don’t need. Or as Republicans call it, healthcare." - Jimmy Kimmel

[On a separate note, the Committee to Reelect President Obama is expected to raise up to a billion dollars. The rest of that mad money next year is "invested" in Obama's new spending programs...]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

ABBA, "Head Over Heels". Even though the video focuses on Frida, I love Agnetha's hairstyle and simple black outfit in heels in this video: it just works.