Analytics

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Miscellany: 5/30/10

Congratulations, Roy Halladay: MLB Perfect Game #20!

Technically #22 if we go back to 1880, before the start of the "modern era", i.e., 1900. For the first time in the modern era, we've seen two perfect games pitched in the same season, interestingly enough one in each league, after Dallas Braden's American League victory in Oakland just 3 weeks ago. (In 1880, two perfect games were pitched 5 days apart.) Ray Halladay of the visiting National League Philadelphia Phillies pitched a 1-0 masterpiece over the Florida Marlins, becoming the second Philadelphia Philly to achieve perfection since retiring Kentucky US Senator Jim Bunning did it during the Beatles' heyday in 1964.

Sunday Talk Soup

I was amused and infuriated with Dick Gregory's pursuit of Obama Administration climate czar Carol Browner; the underlying assumption of Gregory's questioning is that the Obama Administration has surrendered  under the powerful oil lobby to doing due diligence to environmental impact studies. This tacit assumption is so patently absurd by any objective standard I was astonished Carol Browner failed to address it from the get-go.

For the most part, oil usage has remained fairly constant at about 20 million barrels per day. Ideally we could cut that usage, and to some extent high prices and a tough economy reduce fossil fuel consumption. But to a large extent our economy is relying on fuel-thirsty trucks and a commute lifestyle with  fuel-inefficient older vehicles (the "real" clunkers), not to mention popular trucks and SUV's. Whereas hybrids and new electric cars, like the $40K Chevy Volt, can help, we won't have nearly the volume to replace the older, less efficient vehicles on the road. Many progressives, including Obama, are sympathetic to the concept of taxing fossil fuel so we make $4-plus/gallon an ongoing reality with healthy tax hikes. The yuppies on the coasts may be proud to be seen in their Prius hybrids or the first in their neighborhood to own a Volt, but the fact is if you are in the lower-income brackets, you are likely looking at lower-price, used, less fuel-efficient vehicles. What that means is regressive energy taxes (including gas taxes) are going to especially hit lower-income vehicle owners.

The fact is that Congress in 2008 did enable expansion of offshore drilling after a long-term moratorium. Domestic production has continued to drop in market share of our daily oil requirements and only accounts for roughly one-quarter of our daily needs. Obama cautiously added a tiny percentage of available tracts off the East and Gulf coasts, none above New Jersey and none of the West Coast. Oil shale production in the west/central states is largely tied up in environmental legal challenges.

Obama, in principle, is sympathetic to the idea of forcing conservation through high energy prices. At the same time, he has to be aware that voters do want more self-sufficiency of domestic energy production and high gas prices are very unpopular with lower- and middle-class voters, key constituent groups. He's doing as little as he can, essentially making symbolic gestures in an attempt to convince voters he is open to increased domestic production as an interim solution to an alternative energy future, but he always pairs his support for modest increased production with his alternative energy agenda. What he never mentions, of course, is that many alternative energy producers (e.g., wind and ethanol) are only profitable under inefficient, massive federal subsidies; Toyota's Prius hybrid sales only fairly recently have become profitable.

But the idea of a cozy relationship with Big Oil and Obama to the extent the Obama Administration looked the other way instead of challenging BP's exploration plans for the Deepwater Horizon? PLEASE. First of all, major oil spills have not been a problem; even the Exxon Valdez was a transportation issue, not an exploration issue. Offshore oil production has a reasonably good record from a safety and ecological standpoint, and no doubt that record was a key reason why costly expanded investigations were unnecessary. Moreover, there were multiple levels of technological redundancy in the oil rig infrastructure.

But really: why would Gregory jump to political conspiracy versus typical Big Government incompetence? Did he suddenly forget recent stories of dead people getting stimulus checks? The space shuttle Challenger disaster? Medicare fraud? AIG and the GSE's? Katrina?

What we see is a highly unusual accident that BP itself did not anticipate, and it hires some of the industry's best and brightest. It has enormous costs and a huge public relations issue which may take years to resolve. Gregory's question has a presentist bias; quarterbacking is a lot easier Monday morning. There are scenarios which are difficult to simulate without themselves posing environmental risks. One thing is clear from the human performance literature: even experts make mistakes (although at a low rate). We cannot eliminate risk; we can try to control for it. To radical environmentalists, even minimal risk constitutes excessive risk.

Political Cartoon

Steve Breen points out that California, the homeland of progressive super-spenders  and over-promisers, is headed towards a Greece-like day of reckoning. Extravagant public sector retirement packages paying most of your paid salary every year for life? Can anyone say cap payments, adjust payment increases, postpone retirement age and put younger workers on 403B style retirement plans? How about streamlining government operations, staff reductions, salary cutbacks and greater benefit contributions? What about a more business-friendly tax and regulatory status and cutting the top income tax rate? This fall, California will have a gubernatorial choice between a professional politician, Jerry Brown, whom was against property tax reform before he was for it as a former two-term governor and  failed Presidential candidate, and Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, bringing a fresh perspective and new and different ideas to state governance.


Quote of the Day

Stay committed to your decisions, but stay flexible in your approach.
Anthony Robbins

Musical Interlude: The AFI Music Top 100 (continued)

#57. "The Windmills of Your Mind"



#58. "Gonna Fly Now"



#59. "Tonight"   from West Side Story: one of the best, most glorious love songs ever!



#60. "It Had to be You"