Analytics

Monday, December 28, 2009

Miscellany: 12/28/09

HHS Secretary Janet Napolitano: Who is She Kidding?


"The system worked" and "everything happened that should have"?  We  were only spared of a horrific tragedy on Christmas over Detroit (as in the case of the "shoe bombing" incident) by sheer luck (the detonator failed) and assistance by certain passengers in apprehending the suspect. I do dislike the inevitable Monday morning quarterbacking or fingerpointing that occurs after an actual incident (e.g., 9/11) or a close call. What is more troubling in this case was that the explosive substance (PETN) was the same used during the two failed attempts. And of course there are the other reported things which you think should have triggered suspicion, e.g., no luggage for an international passenger and a one-way ticket paid with cash.

To be fair, Secretary Napolitano on Fox News this morning admitted to failures in the system. Perhaps she thought yesterday that she needed to reassure passengers that everything is in control--sort of her Alexander Haig moment (remember the attempted Reagan assassination?)  But to almost anyone hearing her, she seemed to be out of touch and in a state of denial.

Obama's Katrina-like Response to Flight 253

Remember how the Dems criticized Bush being on vacation when in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina we had a disaster on the streets of New Orleans? Yet Obama, who is so quick to the draw when it comes to Don Imus making a joke about a college women's basketball team or the arrest of his Harvard professor friend, is now on day 3 following the NWA flight 253 incident with no meaningful response (other than to predictably call for a review on airline security measures).


The Rich Get Richer?


The way the progressives tell it, you would think that after 2 terms of the Bush Administration, the rich got richer. But in reviewing where we were 10 years ago (in the usual 10-year reviews), the Wall Street Journal reveals that even with this year's rebound, the Dow is not ahead in NOMINAL terms with where it was 10 years ago; more importantly, if you factor in inflation, the Dow Jones would have to gain another 28% or so from where it stands now just to break even. And, of course, you are taxed on NOMINAL gains, not REAL gains, which is utterly absurd. To some extent the amount is mitigated by lower taxes on long-term gains, but it depends on how long you have held the investment. The Obama Administration, of course, supports a consumer spending bias (relative to savings and investment), but given its record of nearly equaling the deficit in Bush's entire second term in just the first year of its term in office, should we be surprised by anemic job growth?

A Bond Guru Believes That Fed Reserve Chair Bernanke is Underestimating Inflation

Well, this isn't really rocket science since the Fed has kept interest rates are near zero but many consumers have seen prices pick up at the grocery store, and the Democrats are using health care inflation to justify their so-called reform measure. What is news is Bill Tedford, who at the helm of Stephens market-beating bond portfolio, has joined the ranks of inflation bugs whom believes that all the easy money sloshing around the economy will lead to inflation (and hence is advocating traditional inflation hedges, such as commodities and precious metals). (To be fair, Fed Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke believes that economic slack in a recessionary environment offsets inflation risk.) The argument is that increases in the monetary base above GDP growth roughly tracks inflation growth. Tedford notes that over the past 15 months, even discounting excess reserves, the monetary base has increased by 11%--a period during which we had negative or very modest increases in GDP. I would also be very wary of a double-dip recession if the Fed is forced to raise rates sharply.

I was rather intrigued hearing former Speaker Gingrich talk of a different bubble this time after seeing bubbles in the Internet economy, real estate  and energy--this time, the government spending bubble. I'm really concerned that Obama is underestimating the effect of his debt explosion on the international investor--if foreign investment in US bonds falls off, government interest payments are going to skyrocket and cause spending dilemmas.


Political Cartoon

IBD cartoonist Michael Ramirez tweaks Senators "Louisiana Purchase" and "Cornhusker Kickback". As I recently wrote, "In other words, we already know what they are; Reid was just haggling over the price." Attention,  "Congressman" Grayson: Who are the real K Street whores?  At least when Spitzer was haggling, he didn't put millions or billions on the national credit card. There's little honor in the nation's second oldest profession.





Musical Interlude: Gary Wright "Phantom Writer"


Gary Wright had two monster hits in 1976: "Dream Weaver" and "Love is Alive".  Gary Wright had an innovative twist on his musical arrangements in the rock era: no use of guitar. I remember bringing my copy of his follow-up LP ("The Light of Smiles")  to a friend's party, but he quickly pulled the album before it got to my favorite Gary Wright track: "Phantom Writer", the lead single which barely missed cracking the top 40. I couldn't find a Youtube video featuring the track, so click on the link to hear a sample full song play at lala.com; I also think the song lyrics on various websites are wrong, but I would need to get my LP out of storage:


Listen to "Phantom Writer"  @ lala.com