Pandemic Report
The latest stats from CDC:
Well, all the major stats, including hospitalizations, deaths, test positivity rates, and relevant emergency room visits, continue to improve in the direction of the summer mini-wave ending. Still, just a reminder that it's still dangerous out there. My Mom caught it ironically just before she was due to take the new monovalent booster. [Correction: she got the shot days before testing positive. It can take up to 2 weeks or longer to metabolize the shot.] Fortunately, despite being in multiple risk groups, she has made it through the quarantine period without serious consequence, no doubt in part bolstered by prior vaccine/booster shots. She is at least the second member of my nuclear family who has gotten infected; I was supposed to visit my youngest brother and his wife last winter but I got sick (unrelated) for a week or two; ironically, they both got infected around the time I was to visit. I don't get regular updates from my siblings, but I know at least 3 nephews and a niece (all grown and living separately) have been infected in the past.
In the present study, researchers modeled the clinical and economic impact of the mRNA-1273.815 vaccination in high-risk individuals aged 30-59 and older adults (≥ 60 years) in Germany.mRNA-1273.815 vaccination was associated with better clinical outcomes and lower costs than no vaccination. The model predicted 12.9 million symptomatic cases, 305,711 hospitalizations, and 11,125 deaths without vaccination between September 2023 and August 2024. However, mRNA-1273.815 vaccination would have reduced symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 13.1%, 27.9%, and 36.8%, respectively, relative to no vaccination. Further, the mRNA-1273.815 vaccination program was associated with better clinical outcomes and lower costs than the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccination campaign. mRNA-1273.915 vaccination would have prevented more than 90,000 symptomatic cases, 3,471 hospitalizations, and 157 deaths relative to XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccination[I should note I had chosen the Moderna updated vaccine a couple of weeks back.]
“For almost every infectious disease, the most vulnerable populations are at the extremes of age — the very young and the very old,” said Stanford Medicine professor of microbiology and immunology and of pathology Bali Pulendran, PhD. “But with COVID-19, the young are spared while the old are emphatically not. That’s been a mystery.” They [children] seem to harbor fewer receptors for SARS-CoV-2 on their cell surfaces. They’ve had more relatively recent encounters with benign coronaviruses than adults, bolstering immunity to newcomers. But much of the solution to the mystery COVID-19 poses may reside inside little kids’ noses...Infants’ blood-borne antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 were a little slower to spike upward in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. But in stark contrast to adults, their antibody levels never dropped. In the blood of adults with even mild COVID-19 cases, there was a big increase in levels of a number of inflammation-promoting signaling proteins, previously shown to be associated with more-severe symptoms. In infected kids’ blood, this increase wasn’t seen. Also absent in kids’ blood, but relatively abundant in the mucous membranes of their noses, was an immune molecule that calls in the thugs: That is, it recruits all-purpose pugnacious immune-cell buddies known as neutrophils to the area.
Novavax manufactures a more traditional protein-based (vs. mRNA) vaccine; its updated vaccine was approved earlier this month and is currently being delivered through pharmacy or government locations; its earlier versions ran into production issues, with only modest market share.
Harvard and Oxford have developed a new AI tool EVEscape, which attempts to forecast likely new virus mutations and variants:
EVEscape predicted which SARS-CoV-2 mutations would occur during the pandemic with accuracy similar to this of experimental approaches that test the virus’ ability to bind to antibodies made by the immune system. EVEscape outperformed experimental approaches in predicting which of those mutations would be most prevalent. More importantly, EVEscape could make its predictions more quickly and efficiently than lab-based testing since it didn’t need to wait for relevant antibodies to arise in the population and become available for testing.
Additionally, EVEscape predicted which antibody-based therapies would lose their efficacy as the pandemic progressed and the virus developed mutations to escape these treatments.
The tool was also able to sift through the tens of thousands of new SARS-CoV-2 variants produced each week and identify the ones most likely to become problematic.
Eight reasons for adults and kids to get the updated vaccines:
- There is little downside. The vaccines are extremely safe.
- It’s not obvious who is high-risk. Universal recommendations are simpler and likely increase uptake in the most vulnerable.
- Covid vaccines protect against Covid. I don’t want to get Covid.
- Vaccination likely reduces the risk of long Covid and helps in the recovery for some.
- Fewer infections mean less transmission. Less transmission means fewer cases. Fewer cases mean fewer serious cases and deaths. That’s math.
- We do need updated vaccines, and lots of people didn’t get the last one.
- Kids benefit from the vaccine, too. Half of the deaths were in kids with no underlying conditions. The rate of Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths in kids is higher than pre-vaccine rates for chicken pox and meningitis. The majority of the time, children are the source of household Covid transmission: more than 70% of US household COVID spread started with a child.
- The cost-benefit makes sense. Compared with only vaccinating those older than 65, universal vaccine recommendations were projected to prevent about 200,000 more hospitalizations and 15,000 more deaths over the next two years.
- federal law violations, including the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program; more specifically, 17 Broward (FL) Sheriff's Office employees
- four Mid-South pastors alleged having collectively defrauded more than $950,000 from federal programs, including the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.
Other Notes
The blog seemed to improve over last week's numbers. There are now over 400 posts for the year, which has been achieved since 2016.
On the entertainment front I've mostly been tracking football and MLB. Mu UH Cougars and Minnesota Vikings are having off-years, the latter losing a number of close games, almost a flip from last year. Cougars almost blew a multi-score lead over West Virginia before a Hail Mary TD capped a 12 second game-ending come from behind drive; I've tweeted a link to a game summary Yoube clip. The Longhorns started off on their best winning streak in over a dozen years. And my upcoming battle of Alma Maters occurs next weekend. The Astros beat my first-love Minnesota Twins and advanced to the American League championship series starting tonight defending their championship against divisional rival Texas Rangers. (I was an Astros fan after spending my teen and young adult years in Texas, the last 6 years earning two graduate degrees at UH.)
