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Thursday, August 17, 2023

Post #6368 Rant of the Day: Trump Haters Meme

 

I grabbed this image off Twitter/X the other day; I published a partial response in terms of foreign policy but a fuller response is necessary,

I am Never Trump and always have been. I don't really consider myself as having Trump Derangement Syndrome; I'm not obsessed with him and don't routinely personally bash him or his family like many leftists on Twitter. I've written hundreds of tweets and at least a dozen blog posts, but in large part those are in response to Trump messages, his term in office and his multiple campaigns over the past decade.

Let's deal with the Trumpkin's implied Trump "achievements" in order:

No wars? First, Trump didn't withdraw from engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria, among other engagements overseas. He did signal drawdowns in Afghanistan and Somalia. On the other hand, Trump assassinated Soleimani, a member of the Iranian government, an act of war, he launched unprovoked missiles aimed at the Syrian government, he upsized bloody drone attacks with heavy civilian casualties, he launched unprovoked trade wars against China, he hinted of military intervention against Venezuela, and he fought for the biggest military budgets in US history. Not to mention his bullying tactics worsened relations with ou NATO and other allies. Trump continued support for Saudi Arabia and its bloody intervention against Yemen, against Congressional opposition.

Middle East peace? First of all, Trump had a clear anti-Muslim perspective, starting with his early term Muslim ban. Any idea Trump would be an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians (which he seems to link to terrorism) was dashed by Trump's unilateral late 2017 recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. If anything, Trump seemed committed to a proxy war against Iran in the region (Syria et al.) and has opposed international agreements with Iran. See also the above reference to the missile attack on Syria and Trump's support for Saudi Arabia's Yemen intervention. The OP seems to be referencing the Abraham Accords among Istael and United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but those nations haven't been in the parameters of Middle East conflict.

Strong American economy? Certainly not during the pandemic economy. Economic growth did not approach a 3.x% long-term trend: "While GDP growth crossed over 3% in a few quarters the past three years [2019], on a full year basis GDP growth hit a high point of 2.9% in 2018, the year that Trump’s tax cut took effect". The labor force participation rate continued to decline. Certainly, Trump deserves some credit for slowing regulatory growth and long overdue business tax reform from previously globally noncompetitive rates. But keep in mind the GOP lacked votes to make tax cuts permanent, and Biden could revert Trump actions, say, on regulation.

Improved trade deals? Generally, Trump failed on free trade; he basically killed TPP and TTIP. His unprovoked trade wars with China, on steel and aluminum, etc. were not only counterproductive with retaliatory responses to America exports, but his tariffs actually were paid by American consumers. Trump's protectionism was essentially corrupt; his political favors to selected suppliers basically raised prices on business and end consumers of products using those inputs. The OP is probably making reference to USMCA or NAFTA 2.0. The bottom line is Trump wanted some protectionist measures aimed at e.g., protecting US autos from cheaper Mexican labor and the US dairy industry in Canadian trade. [One side note: Canadian infant formula exports during the recent shortage driven by an Abbott plant shutdown were essentially banned under dairy-related provisions.] A lot of these provisions were not motivated by the interests of consumers, more/cheaper goods but to the benefit of politically connected suppliers.

Low inflation? Well, first of all, Trump had nothing to do with inheriting a years-long trend of near-zero Fed interest rates. In fact, Trump argued for the Fed to implement negative interest rates like the EU. The problem is that Trump had his own part in bloated pandemic spending (he even wanted his name on stimulus checks to claim credit) during a time of collapsing global supply chains. Not to mention Trump himself nominated Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve; the Fed flooded the money supply and when inflation surged above their 2% target, the Fed considered it temporary and didn't raise rates. Just because inflation surged largely on Biden's watch doesn't mean Trump had no role in it.

Lower taxes? To some extent especially for businesses saddled with globally noncompetitive rates There are 2 principal conservative objections: (1) Because of thin Congressional majorities, they were temporary, not permanent; (2) they weren't offset with spending cuts.

Energy independence? 


Source

Let's first define what we mean: nonnegative "add up all of our energy production (oil, natural gas, coal, renewables) and then subtract our net energy consumption." But take what some people seem to infer: oil production/consumption.[Note, for instance, our refineries take in high sulfur foreign crude and export finished products.] "If you take energy independence to mean we can’t import any oil, then the U.S. has never been energy independent and we never will be. We import a lot of oil, refine it, and then export gasoline and diesel. We also export some oil that is a better fit for foreign refineries than for our own."

Notice in the above chart US crude production was in a long-term decline from the 1970s to about 2006; what turned the industry around wasn't politics but advances in fracking. Much like the case of inherited low interest rates, Trump had nothing to do with rising production which sharply accelerated during the pro-green Obama Administration. It is true we briefly reached net production during the Trump Presidency, but consumption was already largely leveling off and production was in line with the existing trend.

It's true that Biden's restrictions on oil exploration may affect sustainment of shale/other production. but like the rest of the pandemic economy demand resumes quicker than supply chains, exacerbating inflationary pressures.

A secure border? Trump's signature issue has met, at best with mixed results; by far, Trump's immigration policy drastically reduced already backlogged LEGAL immigration. While his pet border wall proposal yielded 458 miles of wall (none paid by Mexico), only 52 was NEW wall, And it's hard to argue Trump improved on Obama as Deporter in Chief (re earlier link):