Let's be clear from the start that I would be unlikely to support DeSantis and I will never support Trump; I could see a possibility of supporting DeSantis if nominated but I almost certainly will support the LP nominee next fall.
I also do not underestimate the challenge of competing with a 2-time nominee and former President, still hugely popular with the party and maybe a core 25-30% of the base, something true since around 2015. But DeSantis has gone from arguably the hottest politician in America after a landslide victory over a former governor last fall to a distant second to Trump. Now, granted, some of this was beyond DeSantis' control; Trump has seen a sympathetic surge of support from the overall base in the aftermath of the Trump indictments. I don't necessarily think that surge is permanent or stable but I haven't seen any competitive response from DeSantis to rise from his slump in the 20's, roughly half or more behind Trump. Even worse, he really hasn't had an effective response to Trump's predictable personal attacks. In effect, DeSantis has been letting Trump define him, with only highly nuanced responses.
I have seen a number of GOP campaign blunders since Bush. McCain clung to his strong support of Bush during the primary, even as Bush's low approvals played into Dem hands in a change election year. He was vastly outspent by Obama, sabotaged his own experience argument by selecting Palin, and impulsively suspended his campaign over TARP. Never mind his admission he needed to be schooled on economics. I'm not sure he could have beaten Obama with a better campaign in the end, but to give a minor example, a stand against TARP would have been a better fit with his populism and put Obama on the defensive.
Romney was the wrong candidate at the time, being the godfather of Obamacare in Massachusetts when Obamacare was highly unpopular. I still think he missed a massive opportunity to turn the tables on Obama over the Gulf wars.
Finally, the 2016 primary played to Trump's advantage. His celebrity, outsider status and large fragmented opposition, not to mention a refusal to attack Trump in the hopes of inheriting his supporters if and when his campaign faltered, all worked to his advantage. I still can't believe they didn't attack his blatant RINO status and 2008 support of both Obama and Clinton. I thought that a real outsider would not have been have been a big political donor; I've tweeted this before this is like a john arguing at least he isn't a whore. I definitely would have attacked his political inexperienc (not even experience as a public dog catcher) and exposed his paper-thin, bumper sticker knowledge of national policy. I still can't believe Trump was defending the size of his genitalia on a national debate stage; this is the sane dude who thought a question on the triad was a gotcha question.
Now I've basically had my differences with DeSantis's record as governor, particularly his fight against Disney over the latter's criticism of the "don't say gay" legislation. and subsequently stripping Disney of self-governing authority. I don't like Trump=like politicians bullying companies, particularly those exercising their free expression rights. I also philosophically prefer a more decentralized approach and stripping away Disney's more autonomous status is too Statist for my tastes.
There's also DeSantis' flip from a pro-COVID vaccine advocate to a more anti-vaxxer sentiment focusing on nominal adverse events, even pushing a grand jury investigation of vaccine manufacturers. I'm disappointed because I've seen DeSantis as a smarter politician who does due diligence on public policy. I'm not going to go into the relevant wonky details, but the interested reader may find this post of interest.
There's also DeSantis' attention-seeking gimmicks like flying migrants to Martha's Vineyard. Not only is this shameless appeal to nativist sentiment morally dubious, but Florida's agricultural economy in part relies on migrant workers, and DeSantis' gimmicks may be counterproductive.
Then there's Florida's new, more restrictive abortion law. I'm pro-life and have written multiple relevant posts since the Dobbs' decision. I do not underestimate how 5 decades of abortion liberalization has had an impact on the attitudes of younger generations. The states could find themselves on the short end of state liberalized constitutional amendments. I've argued a period of 12 weeks, a European median, when the preborn child has all organs and is well-formed and recognizable, is consistent with the traditional criterion of ensoulment/viability.
I'm not sure how generalizable DeSantis' war on wokeism can be on the national level
I'm not a political pundit, and if I were, I wouldn't deliver my advice in a free blog. But some observations:
- Trump blitzed the airwaves with ads arguing DeSantis was a threat to current beneficiaries of senior entitlements. DeSantis, at least to my knowledge, never gave an effective response. He can't afford to let Trump define him.
- DeSantis needs to explain to voters why he wants to be President. He needs to outline his philosophy of governance, how his approach differs from Biden and Trump, how he would deal with a split or minority Congress.
- DeSantis can't afford to be seem as just a smarter, more electable version of Trump. Does he embrace free markets and trade? Does he have a narrower vision for military intervention? Is he a nationalist or a federalist? Does he believe in sound money? How will he tackle projected trillion-dollar deficits and a massive federal debt? He needs to explain the lost opportunities/lessons learned from Trump's first term and how he can build on any achievements.
