Things don't go wrong and break your heart
so you can become bitter and give up.
They happen to break you down and build you up
so you can be all that you were intended to be.
Samuel Johnson
New JOTY Nominee: My Congressman
Elijah Cummings knows the real lesson of using the IRS to unconstitutionally attack the political opposition--the government, just like the taxpayer, has to operate by the rule of law. Nothing inspires confidence in the rogue Obama regime like a top IRS official taking the Fifth Amendment (self-incrimination). For worrying more about criminals than their victims, Cummings makes this year's already crowded field for my mock award of Democrats behaving badly.
And, While We're At It, David Axelrod
I seriously thought about mentioning the Washington state I-5 bridge collapse in last night's post. Democrats never let a tragedy go by without attempting to politically exploit it.. As someone who has a proactive vs. reactive leadership style, I despise Monday morning quarterbacking with a passion. This doesn't mean not doing a post-audit; that's a given. Why didn't I post a note to that effect? I didn't know enough facts about what happened, and I think the big issue is human tragedy, victims and family members.
But arch-partisan Axelrod is a predictable piece of work, and his recent tweet blaming the tragedy on GOP refusals to rubber-stamp Obama's deficit-busting boondoggle public works initiative is morally outrageous. Isn't the hypocrisy palpable? How many Democrats extol the virtues of the public Interstate Highway system? But they raid the gas tax lock box to fund political priorities like transit user subsidies, and they shift the burden from highway users to the taxpayer. Privately-built infrastructure doesn't run into the same types of problems because customers won't pay fees for poorly maintained infrastructure. "Free" highways are over-utilized. When everyone owns something, nobody really owns or is vested in the same thing; it's like the tragedy of the commons. Keep in mind that the reason private sector hasn't been part of infrastructure development (beyond government contracting) has to do with public policy restrictions. What we need here are structural reforms, deregulation and privatization, not crony deals for construction/engineering companies and labor unions, never mind unsustainable business models which require taxpayer subsidies on an ongoing basis like Amtrak.
Now I Know Abenomics is Toast: Krugman is Praising It
It's not just Krugman, of course;Toyota is selling more cars given a cheaper yen; the stock market is way up this year . Abe has a mixed report card:
Japan's economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the first three months of 2013, Japan's Cabinet Office said Thursday. The expansion was much quicker than the 2.7% increase expected by analysts.
On a quarterly basis, Japan's gross domestic product increased by 0.9%. Consumer spending and exports were particularly strong.
Markets have responded as expected, with the yen falling around 30% against the dollar since November, and the Nikkei rising to a five-year high while breaking the 15,000 point barrier. Corporate Japan has bought in too, delivering solid returns and forecasting higher profits.
Yet it's not clear that the excitement is translating into other parts of the economy. Wages are flat-lining, while retail sales, private investment and industrial production indicators have also failed to impress.There are 3 pillars to Abenomics: government spending; expansionary monetary policy; and structural reforms (increase immigration, relax labor regulations, increase female labor participation rate). The most promising, but politically difficult is the final.
While researching this piece I found many mainstream economists have been complimentary, including a number that fault it for not even being more aggressive; many want the US and/or Europe to do the same, if not upsized. I am not a trained economist and am not as well-versed in the data sets to raise technical objections with the policy wonks, but there are some things I know:
- "be really careful of what you wish for": you may think you can limit devaluation or inflation, but easier said than done and the targets are difficult to control/finetune
- many of these policies have been tried before in other contexts, for example, ZIRP hasn't returned the US economy to full employment in 4 years and the "improving" job numbers are more reflective of a shrinking arbitrarily defined labor force: increasing bank reserves doesn't expand lending, corporations hoarding cash don't necessarily spend or invest, and individuals don't necessarily expand spending. Note that businesses won't hire with economic uncertainty or given labor policies which are inflexible (e.g., layoffs) or add employee costs.
- currency devaluation, particularly for Japan, heavily dependent on imports, is a double-edged sword; it can increase the cost of goods sold, pressuring margins, sales, profits and stock prices; moreover, trading partners can respond with their own currency policies as in the vicious circle of 'beggar thy neighbor'.
- "Abe’s LDP spent almost 20 years building bridges, roads, tunnels, dams and airports to nowhere and forcing the central bank to add liquidity to the banking system to end deflation. And what did those unimaginative policies leave Japan’s 126 million people with? The easy answer is the world’s highest ratio of debt to gross domestic product. The harder one: Japan has become a nation that can’t proceed without the economic equivalent of a walker. That image takes on a deeper meaning when you consider Japan’s awful demographics [aging society] and the dearth of ideas to cope with them."
- "Keynesian superstar Prime Minister of Japan--Shinzo Abe has been kicking his plan into full gear lately. The Yen is down 29% since November, stocks are up 45% in 2013, and they're well on their way to the "2% inflation target" they want in the next 2 years. Exports have rise 1.1% this past quarter, with autos increasing 10% to the US and pushing up the numbers despite political problems with China. But lets talk long run. In 2 years the Yen will be down 50%. This means that all Japanese savings accounts will have been cut in half by the government. Now a lot of people say "but there's no inflation"...but you're just not looking in the right places. Inflation will be seen in housing prices, the stock market, gov't debt, and commodities since Banks don't want to loan. Wages (like they have in the US) will remain stagnant, food prices and energy prices will go up as commodity imports shoot up. And then comes the tell all moment that shows if Abenomics works....do the Japanese spend more?"
Entertainment Potpourri
- Series Finale: The Office. I do not like most series' finales. Take Seinfeld and its bizarre ending of the cast ending up in jail, probably the most unlikely ending. The ending I did like was for Newhart, when Bob woke up with his first sitcom wife, This was a spoof on the infamous lost year of Dallas when Patrick Duffy had a contract dispute and showed up in a shower as Bobby Ewing when at season's end wife Pamela wakes up to the unexpected sound of running water in the shower. I probably would have worked a similar concept in Seinfeld where Elaine wakes up Jerry to wish him happy anniversary with their kids; maybe George, now an NBC executive, comes in to say he had to cancel Kramer's unlikely sitcom of 4 dysfunctional adult friends--and we then hear Kramer yell 'Cut' from off-screen.
I think I stopped watching The Office before Jim and Pam got hitched--for me, it's anti-climatic like when Jeannie got married to Major Nelson or when the Nanny married Maxwell Sheffield; the romantic tension was part of the reason for the show's success. Carell's leaving the series as Michael, the pompous, inept manager really was the end of the show. I didn't read the press on the show--I was wondering if Carell would make an appearance (he did, but it was more of a cameo, non-speaking bit, which I found disappointing, not a good use of his talent). I thought the breakout character was the wonderfully quirky Dwight Schrute. Most of the finale focuses on the wedding between Dwight and Angela, whom were experiencing a love-hate relationship when I stopped watching; there's a confusing, indulgent jumble of time sequences, like an in-character cast Q&A, a where-are-the-characters-now bit. Overall, I was disappointed. There were inspired bits, of course: Dwight and Angela saying their vows while standing in their future graves was wonderfully creepy, no doubt a long Schrute family tradition. But there were other bits that fell flat, like Dwight's public termination of an office mate via a gift cake at a team meeting. Firing an older worker in the late stages of his work career in this economy is not something I would put in a sitcom finale; it's not at all funny.
- Alumni Judges for American Idol? No..... Reportedly AI has signed AI veteran/actress Jennifer Hudson, is close to signing the first AI winner Kelly Clarkson and one of the 2 gay runners up, either Clay Aiken or Adam Lambert. If true, this is embarrassingly bad; granted, I am not their target demographic. I'm not sure why show alumni, including 2 that never won, would be credible judges. Kelly is one of 2 show winners whom have enjoyed sustained career success. I don't think judges should be vested in contestants' self-esteem. We haven't had a blunt, direct judge since Cowell left the show. I wouldn't mind hearing say a rotating panel of celebrity judges--for example, I heard Bob Dylan wanted to be on the show but I don't think has been, but I also want to hear from producers or even music journalists.But I guarantee I am less likely, rather than more likely to tune in to listen to Ms.Hudson. And for God's sake, let's stop this embarrassing spectacle of judges giving singers standing ovations!
The big point is the ratings slump is not due simply to judges and their squabbling. part of it has to do with reality show burnout and the predictable format. I've also missed the train wreck auditions from the early seasons.Political Humor
A Democratic congressman said that he worries that the IRS scandal might have a chilling effect on the IRS and that they might be afraid to audit people. So finally some good is coming out of all of this. - Jay Leno
[By "people", Cummings means "partisan critics with deep pockets", like the Koch brothers.]
It is not looking good for President Obama. Today, his teleprompter took the Fifth. In fact, the White House has changed its slogan from "Yes, we can" to "No, I can't remember." - Jay Leno
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| Barry "John Banner" Obama Courtesy of http://itmakessenseblog.com/ |
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| Courtesy of the Great Michael Ramirez and Townhall |
Bruce Springsteen and the E-Street Band, "Human Touch". Probably one of the last Boss' songs I really liked--great, mesmerizing arrangement, bridge and soaring chorus.
