Forgive your enemies,
but nevër forget their names.
John F. Kennedy
Al "Hubris" Gore "Prevented a Revolution"
Al Gore is shown in a Bteitbart website clip, claiming that his concession speech after he lost Bush v Gore prevented a violent backlash. What opened up this can of worms was former Justice O'Connor saying that she has second thoughts about whether it was right for SCOTUS to have heard the case--not necessarily her own rulings on the case.
Keep in mind that two objective machine-scored counts--not partisan-controlled, subjective scoring of invalidated ballots--had confirmed Bush's victory, and remember this story?
More than three months after Democrat Al Gore conceded the contested 2000 election, an independent hand recount of Florida's ballots released Tuesday says he would have lost anyway, even if officials would have allowed the hand count he requested.
In the first full study of Florida's ballots since the election ended, The Miami Herald and USA Today reported George W. Bush would have widened his 537-vote victory to a 1,665-vote margin if the recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court would have been allowed to continue, using standards that would have allowed even faintly dimpled "undervotes" -- ballots the voter has noticeably indented but had not punched all the way through -- to be counted."If you did not punch, the vote is just a hunch." Keep in mind Gore chose not to concede--the alleged technology-savvy candidate, whom famously took credit for the Internet, hypocritically thought technology was not to be trusted. It reminds me of a story I heard from one of my fellow UWM professors. Some students were claiming that the mark-sense scored exams had incorrectly scored their "correct" answers. The instructor suspected that the students had changed their responses after the exams were returned, so he set a trap: he xeroxed the next exam's answer sheets before handing them back. Sure enough, some of the unsuspecting cheaters changed their incorrect answers to correct answers. My colleague told me some progressive educators went apeshit over the instructor's tactics, attacking him politically. No, it wasn't I, but I believed it after the business school administration and senior faculty attacked me politically when I busted some Asian graduate students engaging in plagiarism; I was viewed as "sabotaging" their foreign student recruitment efforts.
Gore decided to try to go about reversing the election results by going into Dem-controlled counties and precincts to mine enough votes; this was basically hyper-political and unconstitutional on its face (the idea that only Gore would benefit from questionable ballots is preposterous from a statistical/probability standpoint). Gore knew that, which is why he didn't pursue a statewide recount from the get-go. SCOTUS ruled against Gore 7-2 on this point. The narrower decision was whether, as a practical matter, the state could complete a legitimate hand recount in time to meet the time frame for the electoral college; note that without Florida, neither candidate would have a majority of electoral votes, and Gore would have never won a vote in the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. But this wasn't an arbitrary decision: Bush had already won a machine-scored recount; the question was whether Florida's voters were to be shut out of the electoral college based on disqualified votes by state law.
Keep in mind Gore ran a very bad campaign in a change election year; he distanced himself from Clinton, no doubt worried about being tainted by the Lewinsky scandal. He lost his composure during the Presidential debates. Despite being able to run on the 1990's prosperity, a balanced budget and his opponent's lack of foreign policy experience, Gore couldn't put Bush away and ran a campaign aimed more at his partisan base than at moderates and independents. Few others have pointed out Bush only won one of 5 states decided by less than 0.5% of the popular vote: Gore barely beat Bush in New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon, and Gore failed to carry a number of states from Clinton's reelection, e.g., Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Arizona, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and his own home state of Tennessee.
Yes, I give Gore credit for doing the right right thing and finally conceding the election, but he only did that after SCOTUS made its ruling. He left Bush in a difficult position--the Clinton White House was less than gracious in transition, and the Democrats, at parity in the Senate, peeled off a GOP Senator (Jeffords) to win control. (The GOP had control by virtue of VP Cheney's tie-breaking vote.)
I'm not going to get in the middle of whether voter fraud in Illinois and Texas in the 1960 election cost Nixon the election (see here and here), but I'll point out that those 51 electorate votes were decisive (Nixon had 219 electoral votes and needed 269 to win); JFK barely won the popular vote nationwide and in those 2 states, with then active Democratic Party machines; there is some anecdotal evidence of fraud, e.g., votes exceeding registered voters or voters from abandoned houses or whose names appear on cemetery headstones. It can be difficult to assess the nature and extent of fraud. But give Nixon credit for not dragging the nation through politically divisive recounts. It probably explains Nixon's paranoia over the 1972 campaign, when McGovern didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of beating Nixon; it was an unforced error.
Al Gore, you are no Grover Cleveland. Grover Cleveland lost his 1888 reelection bid despite winning a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland lost the battle of swing-state home states to Harrison, despite evidence of voter fraud in Indiana. (However, NY was the more decisive loss, where the former reformer New York governor was bitterly opposed by the Tammany Hall political machine.) Cleveland came back to win the rematch in 1892.
I'll never figure Gore out. He was the guy who first realized that Willie Horton (unnamed) was a political liability for Michael Dukakis. Like Cleveland and/or Nixon, he could have easily captured the 2004 and/or 2008 Democratic nominations and probably would have won the rematch. Gore is easily far more competent than John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. Of course, he's no longer politically viable with the "crazed sex poodle" scandal, the climate change alarmism, the Al Jazeera sale, etc. But trying to claim the moral upper hand after he took back his concession speech and deliberately opened up a Pandora's box directly contributing to today's political gridlock? Give me a break. The 2000 election should never have been close.
Abenomics: A Note of Caution
The latest Japanese girl band sensation Machikado Keiki JAPAN has a unique gimmick--for each major K advance in the Nikkei Index, they promise to raise their hemlines. Now what man can resist such a gimmick? Remember when Southwest Air featured lovely young flight attendants with hot pants and go-go boots (below)?
Still, I think something gets lost in the translation of the lyrics to their hit song:
Monetary easing, construction bonds!
Let's revise the Bank of Japan Law!
Let's aim for 3% economic growth!
Abe bubble – let's go!
I have to admit: a song about monetary policy is a step above the general malaise of contemporary pop music, to which I no longer listen. But whereas there's a lot that can be said about expectations, I worry this is a case of being careful of what you wish for.
I have to say if I have an economy heavily dependent on imported natural resources, I would be very careful. Debasing one's currency makes imports more expensive, not only impacting the Japanese standard of living and increasing production costs--which either results in lower margins or higher prices/lower consumer demand. I initially had a minor currency-hedged position--and many investors have found related trades profitable. But I have a bad feeling this is a desperation move that will end badly. I once worked for the American subsidiary of a Japanese technology company: they are down this year and year-over-year.
Chris Mayer reports a tough critique from Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management whom played matador to charging Japanese bulls. He first points out that Mexico tried the same in 1994 and the result was a two-thirds haircut not just in currency but in equities during a short time-frame. Second, he predicts holders of Japanese bonds are going to take massive hits. Third, he predicts currency effects (on imports) will be felt earlier than exporter sale increases, which is a longer-term effect. Slumping profits will kill equity prices. Finally, he predicts the lower standard of living may result in popular unrest.
Why should we care? All things being equal, if PM Abe's gambling of ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy causes an implosion of the Japanese economy, we could see the dollar being a safety refuge just as we have seen during the euro crisis. This could put downward pressure on interest rates. This could explain part of why gold has had a recent correction (gold is a hedge against inflation).
As I've mentioned before, I think that both Japan and the US would be better off adopting free market and free trade policies. The Fed is achieving nothing good by essentially monetarizing a large portion of new Treasury debt. It's like squeezing a balloon at one end: it may be able to rig interest rates by buying enough bonds, but in doing so, it kills the dollar, which raises the prices of imports. That is not in the best interests of related consumers and businesses.
I wonder what the Japanese girl singers look like in kimonos.
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| Southwest Air Flight Attendant 1970's Era Courtesy of Southwest Blog |
Benny and the (Printing) Press....
Oh Benny he's really keen
He's got interest rates, a business suit
You know I read it in a magazine
Benny and the Press
Cap and Trade by Fiat
in the People's Republic of California:
You Stay; You Pay
Political Humor
President Obama held a press conference today. He said he still wants to close the Guantanamo Bay prison facility, but he doesn't know how to do it. He should do what he always does. Declare it a small business and tax it out of existence. - Jay Leno
[Or issue a new set of prison regulations....]
There's now talk here in California of letting noncitizens serve on juries. The bad news: If you're ever on trial for underpaying your nanny, you could get the death penalty. - Jay Leno
[But then they found out how little it pays to serve on the jury...]
Entertainment Potpourri
American Idol. It's likely my predicted finale of Candice Glover and Kree Harrison will happen, although I think Candice now has the edge on winning the crown in terms of momentum and consistency.The ratings plunges have been so dramatic that Drudge regularly features relevant links. One rumor was a possible in-season termination of Nicki Minaj and Mariah Carey, which would be a good first step; Mariah is an outstanding singer but a mediocre judge. Maybe the show is wearing thin; so help me if I hear Randy Jackson say one more time "XXX is in it to win it".... I don't like the judges being overly familiar with the talent (Minaj in particular).
I do like the fact they've seemed to have more performances per show and have experimented with contestant duets. The first theme of the night was a contemporary recent hit song; I'm not impressed by most pop music over the past decade. I went on Billboard's website for the first time in weeks today; there seem to be clumps of the same artists, and nothing that motivates me to pull up the song on Youtube. None of the new music performances impressed me; I liked the American standards performances better; I did like guest mentor Harry Connick's more sparse performance approach (vs. "see how well I can sing" runs). Other than Candice easily winning the night, let's get back to last week's swerve of not eliminating one of the remaining contestants and tomorrow's results being a pool of these last 2 weeks? And they wonder why I and others are now skipping the results show.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Bruce Springsteen & the E-Street Band, "Because the Night"
