You must lose a fly to catch a trout.
George Herbert
The Political Pundits Are Wrong: Obama Will NOT Be Reelected
The common wisdom, even during Fox News Sunday, is that Barack Obama has to be the favorite heading into next year's Presidential election (I'm adding some unstated reasons just to make the opposing point of view stronger): Obama has the advantage of incumbency; Obama is a phenomenal campaigner, unlike any of his likely GOP opponents; Obama will have a formidable warchest; the economy seems to be on the cusp of improving, not great enough, but enough for Obama to claim credit, and the voters will give him credit.
It is no secret to any faithful reader of this blog that I am opposed, in the strongest possible terms, to the reelection of Obama, whom I personally recall for specific reasons the worst, most unqualified President in American history. However, that assessment does not detract from my objective analysis of next year's election and let me make my case: Obama got 53% of the popular vote in 2008, in the strongest year for Democrats in decades (even Bill Clinton didn't break 50%--in a more robust economy). Although Obama is getting a minor boost to about 47% approval (likely because of the 2-month extension of the payroll tax holiday), he is in deep trouble: only in one poll (CNN) does Obama break 50% against any of the leading GOP contenders. It's very unlikely under 50% less than a year before the election that if and when the election comes, undecideds are going to go with the President. He is no longer the outsider, the proponent of "hope and change" Even after taking out UBL, Obama's ratings quickly peaked and went down. I do expect Obama to run against Congress and paint his opponent as a right-wing extremist, but policies like health care "reform" and the 2009 stimulus bill remain unpopular. The big thing is unemployment, and make no mistake: we are going to have to see significant growth (>3%) to see unemployment really start to whittle down; the unemployment rate only got down to 8.6% because discouraged job seekers left the labor force. We could even see an uptick from here in hiring, but see unemployment climb as discouraged workers take any positive developments as a sign to rejoin the workforce. When you take into account that the private sector is barely hiring at a pace to place new workers, never mind nearly 14 million unemployed and millions of other underemployed, I think there's not enough political spin to put lipstick on Obama's record.
If I'm the GOP nominee, I'm going to drill home to people every chance I get that Obama is the first President in recent memory to see US Treasury debt downgraded. In the end, I think people are worried about massive debts and they realize by the election, Obama will have added more national debt than Bush did in 8 years. They know that sacrifice is going to have to hit everyone, not just the upper 1%, and I don't think they want a President whom has shown little ability to negotiate bipartisan compromises. They also know the record of the 111th Congress, and I don't think any patriotic American believes that a Democratic Congress and President in 2013 is going to get us out of structural trillion dollar deficits--and trillion dollar deficits are just not sustainable, period.
Sunday Talk Soup: Some Brief Notes on Meet the Press Part 1:
BROKAW: In 1968, which I lived through, there was enormous turmoil, but everyone could get a job. We still had a manufacturing base in this country....I think the rest of the country just feels that they're not included in a lot of what is going on,
We are still the world's leading manufacturing nation, but there are serious policy problems making it worthwhile to invest in American factories. The trade protectionist standpoint of Democrats, not to mention dysfunctional, globally uncompetitive tax policies, worsen growth attempts. The solution is the law of comparative advantage and free trade. One of the PIMCO studies I cited in the Man of the Year post has a very interesting plot showing that the US does very well in our free trade partnerships--but it took the Democrats 4 years to confirm 3 free trade deals Bush negotiated and Obama hasn't negotiated any significant others.
Brokaw is worried about mortgages underwater, but that's a phenomenon that follows a correction of any real estate boom/bust cycle which usually lasts about 17 or so years. As the job market improves, we should see the housing slowly but surely improve.
As for the discontent of the American people: I think they're regretting the fact that last year's election left the Democrats still in control of the Senate, and the constant fighting between the parties leaves no one accountable. I honestly believe that Americans are ready for REAL shared sacrifice, just as they have had to see states and cities have to do to live within their moves. I would hope that the American people aren't delusional enough to believe that price-fixing by the government in health care resolves the intrinsically higher costs of an aging population. A recent study that showed the lowest pregnancy rate in decades is not helping the picture.
KATHLEEN PARKER: And you know, the truth is the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street people are, are really two sides of the same coin. You know, one is against big government, one is against crony capitalism.Some people think Parker is a 'conservative' commentator. Okay, folks, I may have to invent a category next year called "Bonehead of the Year", and this is one of the most ludicrous things I have ever heard in my life. This goes beyond bad analysis: it's a departure from reality. I consider myself a Tea Party member, and I am AGAINST industrial policy or crony capitalism of any kind. I am pro-liberty, pro-free market, pro-capitalist. We "real" conservatives oppose bailing out banks or auto companies or insurance concerns (or any other entity). On the other hand, OWS wants Big Government and has no problem with crony unionism; they think they have a right to the property of others by punitive taxation and want Big Government to pay almost all their bills, including education. OWS cherry-picks which crony capitalists they condemn (mostly banks). but they fail to understand government is part of the problem.with guarantees.
MR. MORIAL: You know, the anger that Americans feel, I think, is accelerated by the fact that the middle class has evaporated, that the recession has created a greater income inequality than ever before.I know people whom have made into the six-figures whom have earned very little over the past two years. It is true that some groups have done better than others, but when the well-to-do invest in new plants in the process of making more money, they hire people to get them there. A wealthy individual doesn't have to spend his money in expensive ventures which can yield thousands of new jobs.
Just a Reminder: My Choice for 2011 Man of the Year
Earlier this evening I posted my choice. Did you agree? Of course, my award is but a few bytes in cyberspace; that and $5 will buy you a cup of Starbuck's coffee. Of course, with my choice's actions, a cup of joe may set you back $10 by the end of the decade...
Political Humor
"The best part about holiday parties is the alcohol. You have a couple of drinks and you tell your coworkers and your superiors what you really think about them. And then the fun begins." - David Letterman
[And you thought that a sober Biden was gaffe-prone...]
"The New York Daily News reported that Obama bought the Wii game “Just Dance” for his daughters, Sasha and Malia. Or in other words, the New York Daily News just ruined the fun of opening presents for Sasha and Malia." - Jimmy Fallon
[Well, Obama first tried playing the board game Monopoly with them under his "balanced approach" rules, but the girls got tired paying Obama the Tax Collector $150 every time they passed Go. Then there were the "you've just been audited--go straight to jail" cards, but no "Presidential pardon" cards... Obama always ended up being the winner with tax liens on all the properties.]
Musical Interlude: Nostalgic/Instrumental Christmas
Hallelujah (Handel's Messiah).
Neil Diamond His unmistakable baritone gloriously complements the choir.
Choir (Video with Classic Christian Art)
Mannheim Steamroller
