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| Painting by Marianne Stokes, "Madonna and Child" (1907-08) |
Quote of the Day
The best thing we can do for ourselves and the people in our lives
is to love them unconditionally,
forgive them without reservation
and to accept them exactly as they are.
Iyanla Vanzant
Interesting Updates on the Carpe Diem Blog
Economist Mark J. Perry's blog is now pulling in over 200,000 pageviews a month. I'm envious: I was hoping this little blog would build a reader base by word of mouth, and I've made a few minor efforts to promote the blog at other websites (no success).
The Perry blog typically includes clippings on various subjects followed by a short Perry commentary: the shale gas and Bakken formation stories; the income inequality theme; foreign trade (particularly China); website odds on the GOP nominee; the alive-and-kicking US manufacturing sector; low inflation and positive growth indicators; and free market issues (including rent control and other price-fixing gimmicks along with various prohibitions). [I'm more skeptical on the overall discussion of inflation given the sticky high inflation of food, energy/fuel, health care, and particularly college education. I went into a Safeway for the first time in months recently, and it seemed as though the prices of everything had jumped dramatically.]
I had to smile at Perry's sarcastic reference to the politically correct "Christmakwanzakuh" season. There were 3 recent posts in particular I wanted to briefly comment on:
- Cheap Shale Gas Supplies Lower Utility Customer Bills. It's somewhat ironic to see that utility companies have to apply to regulators in order to LOWER rates; you won't see these stories being carried by the progressive populists (whom never did understand why gas stations dropped their prices in a soft economy...)
- China Trade Statistics and Apple Products. Perry cites a recent study focusing on the manufacture and sales of two princpal Apple products: the iPhone and iPad; don't expect Trump or Romney to emphasize this study which suggests that the trade balance numbers with China can be or have been misleading (i.e., the real balance is a lower trade gap). Charts show that Chinese labor accounts for something like 2% of item prices.
- The Rich Get Richer--and the Poor Get Richer. I remember one of the few times I allowed myself to buy something at an early adopters' premium was a VCR. It went for about $1200, and I also bought a copy of The Sound of Music for about $80. (I invited some of my fellow UH Catholic Newman friends over for a dinner party, one of the few I ever did.) Of course, today the going price on a VCR/DVD recorder ranges from $75 to $200 and above, and you can purchase a special edition of the same classic movie on more robust DVD for less than a third of my cost. What's all the more amazing is that 1980-1981 dollars were much more valuable, so the real price difference is more remarkable. PC computer hardware price cuts are even more striking, and there are several freeware full-featured office suites available. In the cited story above, we see that for relative compensation, for the same work hours it took to buy a single appliance, you can today buy something like 8 different appliances from Best Buy today. The law of comparative advantage and free trade enable lower-income people to stretch their precious dollars further in clothing and other consumer products.
Peace on Earth and GOP Groupthink
on the Military-Industrial Complex
Ron Paul must feel like a piñata at the GOP debates. It is amazing what Presidential politics will do. I recall reading some of the news stories before Sara Palin became a national candidate: her first-born son was joining the military, and she was worried whether her son's life would be at risk over oil (from the Middle East). Once she became the VP nominee, it became a political ritual for her to pay tribute to the military, particularly the man heading the ticket, John McCain, a former long-time North Vietnamese prisoner of war.
George W. Bush's evolution of rationale for Middle East involvement eventually shifted to the spread of democracy. But, in fact, where has our involvement gotten us? There are historic rivalries between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Arabs and Persians, Kurds and Arabs, Jews and Muslims (of course), and more recently Muslims and Christians. A recent story in The Telegraph mentions the fact that two-third of Iraqi Christians have gone into exile to escape religious persecution; a similar situation is developing in Egypt where 25 Copt Christians were murdered two months ago; over the past year some 300 Christians have been arrested in Iran, Christian priests are being murdered in Tunisia, Maronite Christians in Lebanon are increasingly being targeted in bombings, and Syrian Christians are coming under attack during the existing civil strife. Under the "Arab spring" form of democracy, fundamentalist Muslim factions (like the Salafists) are able to exert influence beyond their numbers due to their ruthless methods, even in dealing with any deviations from a rigorous religious code (e.g., beards are symbolically significant in Islam, so barbers who offer beard shaving services have come under attack in addition to women whom fail to veil their faces.)
I am a proud American, supporting a theory of government which, in principle, curbs the tyranny of the majority with respect to individual rights. However, when we look at the governments in other countries, I am hesitant to suggest one-size-fits-all. I believe that in some countries or cultures forms of government have evolved over time to establish an equilibrium among opposing factions. We need to worry about the law of unintended consequences before we support intervention dealing with a country or region.
I am skeptical of those in the libertarian movement espousing conspiracy theories about the existence of a perpetually large Defense Department, suggesting it is looking for the Next Big Threat. In the context of The Telegraph story, for instance, some would argue that supporting the revolutionaries during the Arab spring would lead to the emergence of radicalized groups--persecuting religious minorities (such as the above-cited persecution of Christians) and thus providing pretext for subsequent Western intervention.
I wish the GOP contenders would do a post-Iraq/Afghanistan lessons learned and say to the American people next fall: George W. Bush made mistakes: what lessons did we learn about intervention from the Beirut barracks bombing that led to President Reagan withdrawing US forces? What did we learn from nation building in east Europe during the 1990's? The GOP rivals revere the principle of listening to the generals on the ground--but who was it that recommended understaffing the occupation to the point we couldn't maintain ground after Americans withdrew, needed elsewhere? I want to hear of a higher barrier of entry to war with American blood and treasure at stake. I want to hear less obsession with outlaw regimes in Iran and North Korea and more about streamlining of bases, obligations and alliances. We cannot continue to borrow 40% of the Defense Department budget; we cannot afford to spend an undue amount of blood and treasure in small countries of questionable strategic importance.
Musical Interlude: Nostalgic/Instrumental Christmas
Harry Belafonte, "Mary's Boy Child"
