Quote of the Day
We judge ourselves by what we feel capable of doing, while others judge us by what we have already done.
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Political Potpourri
I haven't written one of these recurring segments in a while. First, the Presidential job approval rating. What's become clear is the softening economy, stagnant job numbers, and Obama's inability to distance himself from a series of foreign interventions is keeping Obama near the 45 to 46% approval rating in the more reliable Gallup and Rasmussen polls. I am convinced this actually is overly optimistic from next year's electoral standpoint because the President's personal appeal artificially inflates his approval numbers.
Second, about the GOP nomination: it's clear that Bachmann has become the latest flavor of the month; the current Des Moines (IA) Register poll shows only two serious contenders with Romney narrowly edging Bachmann. The only other to reach double digits is Cain and barely that. Bachmann will get a slight boost from her official announcement early next week. What's surprising is that Pawlenty is barely polling at roughly a third of Bachmann's support. My analysis: Bachmann has no shot whatsoever. It is true that I've frequently criticized Bachmann's shrill, red meat populist politics, but let me explain with some objective numbers to make my point: SurveyUSA Thursday showed Pawlenty tying Obama in his home state of Minnesota; Bachmann is behind by 14. I have seen other polls as well that Bachmann is not even competitive for the soon-to-be-contested 2012 Senate race from Minnesota, her home state. Now one thing is for sure: short of another economic crisis or other disaster, Obama will hold traditional blue states and will be very competitive in the battleground states IF THE RED MEAT RHETORIC CONTINUES. The DeMints, Palins, and Bachmanns will absolutely lose chunks of moderates and independents whom would rather embrace a known evil whom pretends he is non-partisan versus the unintended consequences of polarizing politicians. All you get with these politicians are people whom are vehemently anti-Obama and have little bipartisan or legislative accomplishments in their records. Anti-Obama rhetoric is a cheap pop, i.e., cheap votes. The center of the country realizes that Obama is a failed leader. But after seeing the 111th Congress ram through partisan legislation on the financial market and healthcare, they don't want the GOP to embrace the same kind of polarizing politics. Given a choice of polarizing candidates, they will pick Obama's faux-centrism most of the time.
Romney would love the battle to be between himself against Bachmann or Palin. He wins because the only things sure is GOP voters want to beat Obama next year more than "being right" on a right-wing populist agenda. A populist agenda (e.g., anti-immigration, social conservative issues (e.g., abortion or gay "marriage"), etc.) just plays right into Obama's hands; it would not surprise me if Obama's backers would try to fund these campaigns because the more these media conservative favorites repeat polarizing rhetoric or let Obama turn attention away from economic issues where centrists are, the better Obama will be able to posture himself as the grownup in the room.
The ironic thing is that Pawlenty is not catching on, although I think from a policy perspective, he is, by far, the best candidate in the field. And I don't think it's because he was "too nice" of a guy to challenge Romney on ObamneyCare. I think what's interesting about Gingrich's failed candidacy--and I think Gingrich's comparisons to McCain's remarkable comeback in 2008 are sheer hubris--is how somebody who had gained widespread respect as an astute debater and a new conservative agenda spokesman found himself undone by David Gregory, a middling Sunday morning moderator. I mean, if you can get outmaneuvered by an insipid Gregory, how can you match up against Obama? And Gingrich has always had high unfavorables since the Clinton Administration to begin with and has not polled well in matchups against Obama.
I don't think challenges from the moderate wing of the GOP (e.g., Giuliani, Pataki, or Huntsman) will work. I don't think running a Reagan-style race will be effective either. What do I think will win? First of all, recognize that Mitch Daniels is absolutely correct: you need to call a truce on litmus-test issues; moderates and independents want to turn Obama out of office: litmus-test issues lose votes more than gain votes. My recommendation is to simply refuse stupid, unnecessary pledges on social issues and put up one point: "I will nominate judges whom know their place under the balance of powers in the Constitution--no back door policies usurping the legislative or executive branches." Second, I would force Obama to defend serve. For example, point out to Obama's own voter base in 2008 and ask them--did Obama's performance meet up to your expectations? Did he keep his promises? Why should they give him a second chance? Do they think he'll do any better against a likely unified GOP-controlled Congress? Third, be more creative and less predictable. Unless you have a fastball like Sandy Koufax, if you throw the ball down the middle of the plate, batters are going to kill you. Running on things like no-new-taxes sounds good in theory, but cutting $1.5T from a budget where 80% in entitlements and defense spending is off the table is just not going to work. What we want to point out is Obama's smoke and mirrors, e.g., Obama's ludicrous and mostly unanswered co-opted terms like "shared sacrifices" when the vast majority of the people he says have "sacrificed" are net recipients, not contributors to government overhead. Fourth, run the conservative version of a positive, inclusive campaign. Do voters really need to be reminded how bad a President Obama is? Let Obama run a nasty campaign; the only thing Obama has got going for himself is disingenuous personal approval. Play the grownup in the room. If you are going to run negative spots, use Obama's words against him, e.g., the post-partisan rhetoric to clips of partisan votes on healthcare and financial reform; the inclusiveness rhetoric to his on-the-record Bush bashing, his apology tours, etc. No need for polarizing voiceovers.
What would I do in Pawlenty's place? First, we have gone from a situation where the field was full of former governors to two former governors. He wants to point out he is the only reelected governor in the field; I would try to round up endorsements from other governors. He has a possible challenge from Texas Governor Rick Perry, but in contrast to Romney, Pawlenty can stress his more consistent policy record, his reelection in a purple state in a difficult year for Republicans, and his fresh face in the 2012 election cycle. Second, I think I would try to run a bottom-to-top (state-based) innovative public policy solutions person, e.g., a tenth amendment focusing on adopting winning solutions at the state level and apply them to the national goverment.. Third, I want to run a different kind of offense--distinguish yourself from the opposition; instead of running the ball up the middle, force the defense to cover all the field.
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Chicago, "What Kind of Man Would I Be?"
