Quote of the Day
Because we don't think about future generations, they will never forget us.
Henrik Tikkanen
May Numbers: Unemployment Rises Again: 9.1%
Private Sector Job Growth Down to 54,000
If you ever want to waste your time, just go reading the food fights between economists on blogs discussing inflation or unemployment. There are some things that are so intuitively obvious you wonder sometimes. For example, I use my informal Sam's Club indicator. When I went there today, there were literally dozens of cars winding around the periphery waiting for an available pump of modestly discounted gasoline; $50 fill-ups affect discretionary spending in material ways. Almost everything on my shopping list (except eggs) was up in price.
Over the past year, I've kept on eye on the DBA job market, which has been reasonably good over the last two decades. What I've seen lately are all-inclusive subcontract rates that are below my base salary over 10 years ago (never mind benefits); positions put on hold or withdrawn; others refusing to accept additional resumes, recruiters refusing to consider recent contractors or consultants for full-time positions; unrealistic job descriptions (hybrid positions, unwillingness to consider recent (vs. the latest) version of software, nature and extent of certifications, active security clearances only, etc.); multiple candidate interviews for even low-paying short-term (e.g., maternity leave) assignments; increasing reliance on short-term (e.g., 3 to 4 month) terminal subcontracts, fewer contract-to-hires or permanent positions, etc. In one case, I was advised that I had to fit my resume to the client's idiosyncratic detailed resume format (literally hours of work) plus fill out--for the fifth time--public trust paperwork (more hours of work) just to qualify for an interview. And then there are the inevitable overqualified-for-this-role opportunities. I've had fewer unsolicited calls or interview requests over the past 3 weeks, worse than a couple of months ago. The preponderance of data simply does not suggest the situation is improving.
Now, of course, all this is anecdotal and not necessarily indicative of a general trend. Many of the economists seem to believe this is just a soft patch, that the private sector is still having to offset mostly local and state government layoffs. The progressives, ever faithful to obsolete Keynesian economics, are continuing to play Chicken Little over the layoffs, but if running up the debt was a good idea, we would be willing to do things like pay people to dig holes and fill them back up again.
What really troubles me is a worsening ratio of employment to US population ratio. I also worry about struggling global markets, rising inflation in countries like China and cooling commodities. I don't have a lot of easy answers here. There are things Obama can do but won't, e.g., defer the counterproductive stops on energy exploration (e.g., because of the presence of certain rare Texas lizards) or arbitrary shale and offshore restrictions and moratoriums, relax regulations on boutique state-mandated gas blends allowing economies of scale in gasoline price relief, etc. Obama could agree on long-overdue austerity measures, tackle entitlement reform, lower business taxes and streamline business regulations. I know that analysis paralysis over public policy (including multi-thousand-page healthcare and financial "reforms") is holding businesses back.
The Medicare Debate: A Few Comments
There was an interesting debate on Medicare during the first hour of Fox News' Special Report today. We need to cut out the hype. Hearing the Democrats claim under no doubt wise government stewardship they have maintained a lower inflation rate on medical services than the private sector health plans is nothing short of outrageous. Talk about apples and oranges! The government sets prices; it doesn't negotiate them like what the private sector does. And no doubt given a tough economy, many lower-risk/younger/healthier people are self-insuring, leaving insurers with fewer to subsidize sicker individuals. Since Medicare underpays by 20% or so, the comparison is unconscionable; the private sector is having to subsidize Medicare and rapidly approaching an unsustainable situation with providers not taking new Medicare patients.
I do want to see the Republicans stop using the "I want to keep the Democrats from bankrupting their own program" line. Of course, the Democrats are in a state of denial. The system already has trillions in unfunded liabilities; what we know is either system will pay the big bills. The problem is that for political reasons the Democrats insist on minimizing middle-income out-of-pocket costs. Thus, the Democrats will run out of money sooner than later.
Guest Editorial: Mark Pennington/CATO,
"Communitarians and Classical Liberalism": Thumbs UP!
Most people understand, at least in terms of basic concept, the free market of ideas or the economy; this essay refers to the free market of actions. The bottom line is that when you raise the barriers for individual action, you stifle trial-and-error behavior and learning from related outcomes. Pennington points out this can attenuate desirable or necessary change in a democratic society.
One can see this from a related consideration of a large company bureaucracy. You often see a not-invented-here syndrome, endless bureaucratic challenges to new suggestions (e.g., "this product or service will cannibalize our existing sales") and sometimes a not-so-subtle threat of punitive actions (including termination) for not going with the flow. Can the organization prevent inevitable creative destruction from the competition's offerings? Of course not.
Hank Aaron, #1 All-Time Home Run Hitter (Pre-Steroid Era)
Attended Killebrew Memorial at Target Field
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Courtesy of Getty Images |
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update. This segment is a thrice-weekly, more readable summary of some key blogs covering the the recovery of Fukushima Daiichi shutdown but damaged nuclear reactors 1-3 and relevant spent fuel pools, whose critical cooling systems failed as the result of power failure following a record earthquake/tsunami.
IAEA notes (weekly update since early May):
- June 2 update: I look at changed boilerplate and was pleased to see a short synopsis of safety standards: control for criticality; mitigation of any ecological radiation exposure; and removal of decay heat from fuel assemblies (in reactors and spent fuel pools). Roughly 7% of samples through the end of May weren't compliant with food/drink LNT safety standards.
Hiroshima Syndrome notes:
- June 3 update: The new external cooling system for the first spent fuel pool seems to working well and faster than expected. There is increased emphasis on internal screening workers and area residents after the earlier finding this week that two workers had higher than expected readings (probably due to lack of safety protection at the beginning of the crisis. A majority of 44 tunnels and pits have been plugged (to minimize contaminated water release). The no confidence vote in the Japanese government has been defeated, but Prime Minister Kan is expected to resign by month end.
Political Humor
A few originals:
- The latest job numbers from major California cities are bleak, leading all states with some 370 recent layoffs affecting nearly 48,500 workers. How tough are economic times in California? Well, even former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is feeling the pinch: he had to lay off his long-time maid earlier this year....
- Wienergate continues. Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-NY) can't say for certitude that the particular crotch shot on him in boxers was actually him. You see, like most people, the Congressman has uploaded so many crotch shots of himself he can't keep track of them, plus there are the crotch shots in his account he gets from his male followers... He is concerned what his female followers might think--he wants them to know he had been swimming before that shot was taken...On the bright side, Barney Frank (D-MA) has just signed up as a follower. This brings up the age-old question about the difference between a wiener and a frank...
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Chicago, "Stay the Night"
