Quote of the Day
A word too much always defeats its purpose.
Arthur Schopenhauer
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
TEPCO reports that concrete pump vehicle spraying of reactor 3 and reactor 4 spent fuel pools continued and a transition from fire pump to temporary electrical pump for coolant injection to reactor 2 containment vessel.
NEI notes:
- morning: Power connection to equipment for the reactors (particularly heat residual heat removal systems) is being impeded by turbine room basements flooded with several inches of radioactive contaminated water. Efforts on relevant water removal for reactors 1 and 2 have started, with reactor 3 expected soon to follow. TEPCO corrected an earlier news release overstating the concentration of iodine of the turbine 2 basement by 100 times. Progress in powering instrumentation and various equipment continues to be impeded by wet equipment and fluctuating radiation levels.
- afternoon: The US Navy barges with freshwater are still en route to Fukushima. Coolant injections to the three reactor containment vessels continue, as well as to the relevant spent fuel pools (1 through 4 as required).
- evening: No further changes
The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger in today's post hypothesizes that the existing radiation analyses of the above referenced reactor basement flooding are consistent with multiple sources: spent fuel pool runoff (neutron-activated chlorine) and the cesium from pressure-related torus steam release into secondary containment. He suggests that the comparable concentrations of chlorine to cesium imply most of the water is from the spent fuel source. He also rants about the Fukushima Daiichi site Health Physics staff and the Thursday radiation burn incident involving two subcontractors with unprotected feet (not to mention the belated response to basement flooding). He notes that the burns are not life/limb-threatening but are probably analogous to a bad sunburn. The inaccurate press releases (i.e., the overstated radiation level kerfuffle) causes a credibility problem, playing into the hands of the anti-nuke movement, which will seize on any opportunity to stoke fear, uncertainty and doubt.
Merkel's Pandering to Anti-Nukes After Fukushima Daiichi Fails
Whereas German Chancellor Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats won the largest plurality in the Baden-Württemberg state (southwest Germany) election today (39%), it and its pro-business partner Free Democrats (5.3%) each lost just over 5% of the vote each from the 2006 election, the Greens doubled their vote percentage (24.2%) and the Social Democrats got 23.5%, putting their likely coalition in a strong position to forge a ruling coalition. There are 4 nuclear plants in the state, and (unlike the United States) there is majority opposition to nuclear power. Merkel last year overturned a Social Democrat/Greens law to shutter nuclear power plants by 2022, extending plant lifetimes by a dozen years. Merkel and Stefan Mappos, the regional premier, sought to flip-flop their position in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident, something I critized in this blog. Although Mappos eventually returned to his original position, the political damage was done: the Christian Democrats had been slightly favored before the Fukushima nuclear incident and the flip-flop.
Merkel's Pandering to Anti-Nukes After Fukushima Daiichi Fails
Whereas German Chancellor Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats won the largest plurality in the Baden-Württemberg state (southwest Germany) election today (39%), it and its pro-business partner Free Democrats (5.3%) each lost just over 5% of the vote each from the 2006 election, the Greens doubled their vote percentage (24.2%) and the Social Democrats got 23.5%, putting their likely coalition in a strong position to forge a ruling coalition. There are 4 nuclear plants in the state, and (unlike the United States) there is majority opposition to nuclear power. Merkel last year overturned a Social Democrat/Greens law to shutter nuclear power plants by 2022, extending plant lifetimes by a dozen years. Merkel and Stefan Mappos, the regional premier, sought to flip-flop their position in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident, something I critized in this blog. Although Mappos eventually returned to his original position, the political damage was done: the Christian Democrats had been slightly favored before the Fukushima nuclear incident and the flip-flop.
Shale Gas: A Paradigm Shift in Global Energy Production
This is not an energy blog, but I do focus a lot on energy because of its criticality to economic security. There are concerns about the aging US national electric grid (and relevant cascading blackouts). There is the huge cost threshold for new nuclear plants, possibly feasible only through US government backing of related debt; hence, I've been intrigued by initiatives of Bill Gates and others on small-scale buried nuclear power plants which could power 10,000 or so homes. We've discussed some of the practical issues in terms of the distribution/pipeline for alternative fuels like ethanol, the competition of fuel with food sources, the problems in retrofitting over 100 million vehicles to run on flex-fuels, and a limited network of retailers offering E85 fuels. We've talked about more efficient prospective ethanol sources (e.g., cellulosic); for example, there is UCLA scientst James Liao's innovation allowing a microbe's direct production of butanol from cellulose. There are practical issues involving production capacity and battery capacity for electric and hybrid-technology vehicles, including an infrastructure for battery charging/replacement. Mass transit expansions, including Obama-favored high-speed trains, require heavy subsidies for operations, from day 1.
So the big picture is that we have somewhere near 250 million cars and trucks on the road (roughly half each). They mostly run on gas or diesel; there is also jet fuel. We are roughly 40% self-sufficient in terms of oil imports. Now let's go back a little in history. A number of power plants, e.g., Calpine, were built to accommodate natural gas. But soon natural gas production failed to keep up with demand, as residential rates started to soar over the past decade. (Keep in mind natural gas has roughly half the carbon dioxide released by comparable coal in terms of climate change goals.) Over the past few years we have seen Russia (along with Iran, a top supplier of natural gas) impose tough contract terms with its European customers. The US started looking at importing liquified natural gas from suppliers such as Qatar and building relevant terminals. Then Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin closed on a deal to build a pipeline for transporting Alaskan natural gas to the lower 48 states.
Perhaps most intriguing was legendary wildcatter Slim Pickens' 2008 plan to replace natural gas power plants with alternative energy, windmill farms; we could use the displaced natural gas to fuel, in some form, the nation's vehicles.
George Mitchell of Mitchell Energy developed a procedure to blast oil from shale back in 1993 (the US has huge areas of undeveloped shale properties). To make a long story short, we have gone from a situation of running out of natural gas to outproducing Russia to become the second largest producer, with some estimates at over 100 years of supplies. Amy Jaffe, in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, "Shale Gas Will Rock the World", has more conservative figures on US reserves, but points one of the more beneficial aspects of the shale gas revolution is less reliance on rogue suppliers, such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Shale extraction processes will also expand European supplies and make it harder for Russia and other exporters to corner and market and dictate terms to countries with less natural resources (e.g., Japan). In fact, the Qatar exports once intended for our empty LNG terminals can be redirected to those net energy importers.
I am less thrilled with Amy Jaffe's eagerness to throw money at alternative energy boondoggles. But we could see a rapid turnover of a commercial trucking industry, with companies like Waste Management going LNG, and some distributors agreeing to carry LNG. Given the fact that 9 million barrels/day, roughly half of our oil usage, is used for gasoline, CNG is possible for passenger cars (although this would be more suitable for longer-distance driving vs. city/stop-and-go.).
Perhaps most intriguing was legendary wildcatter Slim Pickens' 2008 plan to replace natural gas power plants with alternative energy, windmill farms; we could use the displaced natural gas to fuel, in some form, the nation's vehicles.
George Mitchell of Mitchell Energy developed a procedure to blast oil from shale back in 1993 (the US has huge areas of undeveloped shale properties). To make a long story short, we have gone from a situation of running out of natural gas to outproducing Russia to become the second largest producer, with some estimates at over 100 years of supplies. Amy Jaffe, in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, "Shale Gas Will Rock the World", has more conservative figures on US reserves, but points one of the more beneficial aspects of the shale gas revolution is less reliance on rogue suppliers, such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Shale extraction processes will also expand European supplies and make it harder for Russia and other exporters to corner and market and dictate terms to countries with less natural resources (e.g., Japan). In fact, the Qatar exports once intended for our empty LNG terminals can be redirected to those net energy importers.
I am less thrilled with Amy Jaffe's eagerness to throw money at alternative energy boondoggles. But we could see a rapid turnover of a commercial trucking industry, with companies like Waste Management going LNG, and some distributors agreeing to carry LNG. Given the fact that 9 million barrels/day, roughly half of our oil usage, is used for gasoline, CNG is possible for passenger cars (although this would be more suitable for longer-distance driving vs. city/stop-and-go.).
Political Humor
An original:
- Katie Couric is rumored to be leaving the CBS News anchor position in June. On a separate note, Sarah Palin announced that she is now a step closer to her decision on whether to run for President...
"We now have wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. They call it a 'theater' of war but this is a multiplex." –David Letterman
[The Libya operation is in limited release; the antagonist of the feature is not very popular among the Libyan people.]
"Donald Trump says he will run for president. He’ll have to find a cabinet position for that thing on his head." - David Letterman
[Trump is brushing off criticism, combing through the budget, shaving the budget deficit, trimming expenses, cutting government waste, doesn't want any mullets serving in his Cabinet, and wants more bangs for the buck. He is looking forward to his first Meet the Press interview with David Gregory's hair.]
"Two passenger planes landed in Washington, D.C. with no assistance from a sleeping air traffic controller. Luckily, the pilots were too drunk to notice." - Jay Leno
[I think that the air traffic controller must have been recruited from the Border Patrol working in Arizona...]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Beach Boys/David Lee Roth, "California Girls". I'm sorry, but every time I hear this song I think about this young blond woman whom came to do training at the Houston branch of a Woodland Hills (Los Angeles)-based company I worked for as an APL programmer/analyst years ago. (I believe I mentioned this in a past post.) We were talking when she (an enthusiastic advocate for the California way, mellow lifestyle, roller skates and Venice Beach with muscular female bodybuilders) wistfully mentioned it was her car's birthday today, but even though she was away from home, she had mailed her car a birthday card. I thought that she was just putting me on, but when I flew to Los Angeles soon thereafter, somehow I ended up in the passenger seat of her car during my visit. Without saying a word, she pointed out the birthday card hanging from her dashboard mirror... California girls are interesting, but as a native Texan, I have to say: there are coeds at the University of Texas (and elsewhere in Texas) beautiful beyond words. (A man must approach a Texas beauty with caution, as though going from a dark room to bright sunshine without sunglasses; if a man get too close, too soon, his mind may go blank, his knees go weak, and his speech is reduced to mere gibberish. I have personally experienced these symptoms on multiple occasions trying to ask Texas women out.)
