Quote of the Day
You can't help someone get up a hill without getting closer to the top yourself.
H. Norman Schwarzkopf
Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update
TEPCO's Daiichi status report today noted the last reactor containment vessel was now on freshwater. The significance of this has been voiced by, e.g., Brave New Climate, which had expressed concern that supersaturation of salt among the first 3 problematic reactors might have the effect of salt caking inside the vessel insulating the core. The most recent status report indicates power is on in the reactor 2 control room.
NEI updates:
Hiroshima Syndrome has become a very popular website, no doubt for its more rational alternative to the tabloid journalism job done by many of the key media sources. I will say a few of HS's facts are disputed by some other sources I've cited (or I haven't been able to corroborate elsewhere), but they are few in number. Hiroshima Syndrome's blogger rants about the fact that TEPCO is underreporting progress in instrumentation recovery implied by readings on water levels, pressure, and temperature for the 3 problematic reactors (1 through 3). He also has an interesting discussion of chlorine-38, as a proof by anti-nuke alarmists that fission is occurring outside the reactor containment vessel. He notes that this is likely an artifact of the use of seawater, points out that the same phenomenon has occurred at the other problematic reactors (e.g., reactor containment vessel for reactor 1 is not suspected of having a leak) and speculates it's likely runoff from spent fuel pools, noting that the firefighters have been using seawater, presumably not mixed with boric acid (to neutralize any radiation effect)
I need more information than I've seen or heard reported, all of it second-hand and lacking sufficient transparency. I've seen one account saying that the spent fuel pool hypothesis was dismissed for reactor 3 because of the tests they had run; they also seemed to rule out a leak from the reactor containment vessel because of pressure stability. I thought, at least in early phases of injecting seawater into the reactor, they were mixing boric acid with seawater (but it's possible they have limited quantities of boric acid). There was also a discussion about the relative location of the turbine room (where the two TEPCO subcontractors last Thursday may have suffered radiation burns on their feet by not following procedure, e.g., vs. the reactor containment vessel). The remaining hypothesis is undiagnosed leaks among the other components or connections in the loop back to the containment vessel. The point I'm making is that both the containment vessels and the spent fuel pools are being injected/sprayed with seawater (until the last 2 days, when the coolant injection of freshwater has started for the reactor containment vessels). I've unsuccessfully attempted to send the HS blogger a number of website emails over the past few days.
NEI updates:
- morning: iodine concentrations offshore from the plant have increased somewhat over Wednesday, but there have been fluctuations where the first reading Friday was much higher over subsequent readings (one of which was a fifth of the earlier measured concentration). No effects so far observed on marine life, and as the remaining 3 reactors stabilize iodine should decrease dramatically. There is a very low possibility of effects on marine life, but recall the half-life of iodine is 8 days and the sea water will dissipate its effects. (I had heard an earlier alarmist report on Fox News relative to Japanese seafood.)
- afternoon: the first of two Navy barges full of freshwater have arrived.
- evening: no notable changes
Hiroshima Syndrome has become a very popular website, no doubt for its more rational alternative to the tabloid journalism job done by many of the key media sources. I will say a few of HS's facts are disputed by some other sources I've cited (or I haven't been able to corroborate elsewhere), but they are few in number. Hiroshima Syndrome's blogger rants about the fact that TEPCO is underreporting progress in instrumentation recovery implied by readings on water levels, pressure, and temperature for the 3 problematic reactors (1 through 3). He also has an interesting discussion of chlorine-38, as a proof by anti-nuke alarmists that fission is occurring outside the reactor containment vessel. He notes that this is likely an artifact of the use of seawater, points out that the same phenomenon has occurred at the other problematic reactors (e.g., reactor containment vessel for reactor 1 is not suspected of having a leak) and speculates it's likely runoff from spent fuel pools, noting that the firefighters have been using seawater, presumably not mixed with boric acid (to neutralize any radiation effect)
I need more information than I've seen or heard reported, all of it second-hand and lacking sufficient transparency. I've seen one account saying that the spent fuel pool hypothesis was dismissed for reactor 3 because of the tests they had run; they also seemed to rule out a leak from the reactor containment vessel because of pressure stability. I thought, at least in early phases of injecting seawater into the reactor, they were mixing boric acid with seawater (but it's possible they have limited quantities of boric acid). There was also a discussion about the relative location of the turbine room (where the two TEPCO subcontractors last Thursday may have suffered radiation burns on their feet by not following procedure, e.g., vs. the reactor containment vessel). The remaining hypothesis is undiagnosed leaks among the other components or connections in the loop back to the containment vessel. The point I'm making is that both the containment vessels and the spent fuel pools are being injected/sprayed with seawater (until the last 2 days, when the coolant injection of freshwater has started for the reactor containment vessels). I've unsuccessfully attempted to send the HS blogger a number of website emails over the past few days.
Michael Moore Is Protesting in the State of Denial:
on Progressive Tax Systems
An investor who has purchased and sold stock knows the basic truth: to earn more, one needs to take on risk. Stock prices can appreciate faster for certain smaller, faster growing companies and/or hot sector businesses (e.g., rare earths exploration). But the reverse often takes place during down periods, especially the market's recent short-term correction: the general market might go down, say .75%, but the higher momentum stocks may drop faster and deeper. (There could be a variety of reasons; for example, energy consumption tends to drop during a recession; this eases the tight supply conditions resulting in higher prices.)
I have been arguing for some time the American tax system is TOO progressive. There are deep moral flaws, as I have repeatedly discussed in this blog: why should Peter restrain what he's ordering off the menu if Paul is paying the bill? A few years ago I worked for a higher education software vendor; during training periods, the company would pay bills (subject to certain constraints). If I was booked into extended-stay or corporate apartment with a kitchen suite, I would often to a grocery store and buy inexpensive prepared or frozen foods; I knew others whom would simply load up on any available hotel hors d'oeuvres. But there were others whom had gone to a local sports bar all week long and ordered the most expensive item on the menu--ribeye steak. (I found this out during small talk at a team-building get-together at the sports bar in question one night.) In car rentals on business trips, it seemed there was a short supply of compacts; I would find agents trying to talk me into an SUV upgrade from my compact car reservation (and I ended up getting the SUV anyway because they had run out of compacts or intermediates). I remember doing a gig at a New York community college and having to deal with strange per diem practices: the client refused to reimburse lunch charges (because "everybody eats lunch anyway") but I could expense between $50 to $60 for dinner (there may have been some exclusions for alcoholic beverages). I think my most expensive tab was half of the cap.
Some people refuse, as a matter of principle, to take advantage of available federal programs, e.g., food stamps, Medicaid, welfare, unemployment compensation, etc. I remember one year business prospects for me were very bad, and I got a note from the IRS I was eligible for (and could still file for) an earned income tax credit. I refused to do that, even as my rainy day fund was being depleted.
President Obama and his progressive allies, like Michael Moore, incredulously assert that having only the higher echelon income earners pay MORE (than the existing 90%-plus of individual-based tax revenues) is only fair because the economically successful have been able to exploit a slumping economy. Have you looked at the stock market lately? What are some of the successful companies you remember from the 1990's? Cisco Systems? It closed yesterday just 31 cents above its 52-week low, price down 14.6% this year. Intel Corp., which produces the standard PC CPU chip? A 10.21 P/E ratio, down over 3% year to date. How about Microsoft, which publishes Windows and the market-leading Office Suite? A P/E of 10.86, price down over 8% this year. The approximate average P/E ratio on the Dow Jones? 14.6, and DIA, a Dow Jones ETF, is up about 5.5%.
Whereas anecdotal exceptional income of certain Goldman Sachs personnel and some CEO's salaries ranging into tens of millions of dollars certainly make for flashy demagoguery, think of what they mean in terms of a nation of 308 million people or a $3.7T annual federal spending. If you take income subject to a 35% federal tax and split it among the tens of millions of workers not paying federal income taxes, what happens to federal tax revenues? "Spreading the wealth around" paradoxically undermines federal and/or state income revenues--and the funding of relevant programs. Progressive critics prefer to talk about things like property taxes and consumption (sales) taxes, relative to income level. I think this merely shifts the argument. It's the conservatives, not the progressives, working to cut down local tax burden, like Scott Walker's (R-WI) prior tenure as county executive to hold down spending but reining in unsustainable personnel costs exacerbated by infeasible public union demands, trying to privatize operations, etc.
If a good economy raises all boats, what happens in a bad economy? Ted Turner at one time after selling off his cable empire was worth several billion dollars. AOL/Time Warner subsequently struggled, particularly the AOL dial-up revenue cash cow (and I believe there was a timetable before Turner could sell his shares); some estimates show (in 2009) he was worth somewhat below $2B, having lost over $7B on paper. Now nobody is going to have a lot of sympathy for a man whom is still a billionaire and doesn't have to work for the rest of his life. But the point is that a $10B Ted Turner is going to pay a lot more taxes than the downsized $2B Turner; in fact, Turner has not fully paid off a $1B pledge he made for various UN programs in the late 1990's, when his net worth was about 50% higher than it is today.
Rich people generally don't keep their cash in mattresses. They put much of it back to work in the economy. And if what they invest in is reflective of a poor overall economy, they won't do well either--say, dividend income cutbacks, capital losses, etc. In fact, income can decrease TWICE AS MUCH as for other workers (see below citation). The point is--if a tax system is too progressive, the legislature's dependence on and addiction to unsustainable, volatile higher-income tax receipts comes to a day of reckoning.
What any investment professional will tell you is--to diversify, diversify, diversify (say, for example, limit specific investments to under 5% of available capital) and limit overall risk; didn't other investors learn anything from the unsustainable paper gains of Enron before its collapse: tragically, many employees had their retirement based on their employer stock. Many investment advisors would have had advised them at minimum to sell at least enough to recover their original investments after appreciation.
We should have seen state legislators and governors put aside some of their earnings during unsustainable times. The time to cut back, say, if you're the governor of Alaska with state coffers bulging with oil-based revenue at a time when oil was peaking at over $140/barrel, is at that time; an investment advisor would have told that governor, Alaska needs to be more than a one-trick pony, and it needs to treat the unexpected bonanza like a fluke occurrence, not a permanent increase in revenues, and cut, baby, cut state spending and increase its rainy day fund--and if and when oil revenues started dropping, rather than exhaust whatever resources were left behind, it was important to cut NOW, baby, cut NOW, not dither, like a former VP nominee did.. It needs to attract a more diversified economy, one not subject to the volatility of energy markets. Any one remotely knowledgeable of the boom-bust energy cycle (I lived and worked in Houston for 7 years) knew that the US economy was going to tank with $140/barrel oil.
The idea that Wisconsin school teachers, bus drivers with overtime, and others are entitled to earn $100K compensation packages, and other absurd perks (like a "bonus" yearly salary at retirement), while promising young teachers are terminated by union seniority layoff rules and other state taxpayers are struggling, because, hey, there's more income from wealthier people we haven't gotten yet, is morally outrageous.
Robert Frank wrote an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, "The Price of Taxing the Rich", which focuses on two states, California and New York (among others) exposing the intrinsic riskiness of their tax revenue model. Thumbs UP!
Notable Editorial Quotes on the Fukushima Nuclear Incident
Some workers have a well-deserved reputation for risking their lives in service of the common good, including, but not restricted to the police, firefighters, American group troops, sailors and aviators. Others, less heralded, work in energy source exploration and production, making possible all the things that power our homes and economy. Whether we are talking about coal miners trapped underground, offshore rig workers dealing with a catastrophic accident, or nuclear incident workers risking their health and lives struggling to control a crisis caused by Mother Nature, all we're left with as a prospective role model is a dimwitted Homer Simpson, a nuclear power plant safety inspector, the patriarch of The Simpsons, a decades-long prime time network cartoon series.
Just over a week ago, nuclear engineer Michael Friedlander published an op-ed piece in The New York Times, entitled "Homer Simpson Need Not Apply". I recommend reading the full post, but let me highlight some takeaway quotes:
Just over a week ago, nuclear engineer Michael Friedlander published an op-ed piece in The New York Times, entitled "Homer Simpson Need Not Apply". I recommend reading the full post, but let me highlight some takeaway quotes:
The typical [nuclear operator] is more like a cross between a jet pilot and a firefighter: highly trained to keep a technically complex system running, but also prepared to be the first and usually only line of defense in an emergency. Training to be a senior reactor operator takes up to two years and involves demonstrating one’s ability to process complex, sometimes contradictory information rapidly and under intense pressure...While the world wondered why the workers at the Fukushima plant didn’t flee, my fellow nuclear operators and I weren’t surprised. One employee is reported to have received a significant dose of radiation while trying to vent pressure on one of the reactor’s containment vessels. There is no question that this act saved countless lives... Plant operators struggling to keep water flowing into the reactors, breathing hard against their respirators [in unlit] dark recesses of a critically damaged nuclear plant, knowing that at any moment another hydrogen explosion could occur... will simply say they were doing their job.
John Metzger, a University of Pittsburgh associate professor and director of nuclear engineering, makes the following comments about Fukushima Daiichi is his column, "The Nuclear Culture of Safety":
Despite an outstanding history of safety and reliability, the events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants in Japan are causing many to call into question the safety of the nuclear industry. It is important to put these events into perspective. The incident was not due to any perceived design deficiency, inadequate procedures or inappropriate operator action. It was due to natural events of historic proportions. It appears the Fukushima plants withstood the largest earthquake in Japan's recorded history and shut down as designed. It was the subsequent tsunami that exceeded any expectations, plus a substantial safety margin...due to the quick actions of the Japanese government, the heroic efforts by staff at the Fukushima plants and the plants' robust design, there appear to be no reported fatalities to date due to damage at the nuclear facility. There have been releases of radiation...not [dangerous] to human health.Political Humor
President Obama had to use another door to get into the White House yesterday after he got home and the entrance to the Oval Office was locked. When he couldn’t get in, Obama said “Holy cow, is it 2012 already?” - Jimmy Fallon
[Jimmy, it's January 20, 2013... The White House domestic staff locked the door after they caught Sarah Palin in the Oval Office measuring the drapes... I guess that President Obama shouldn't have put the White House up as collateral on that $900B loan from China...]
For Lent, some people give up meat, and some people give up drinking. President Obama gave up conferring with Congress. - Jay Leno
[And last year GE (whose CEO, Jeff Immelt, is an Obama business advisor) gave up paying federal taxes for Lent. And before and after Lent.]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
Beach Boys, "Barbara Ann"
