Miscellany: 3/31/11

Quote of the Day

No pessimist ever discovered the secret of the stars or sailed to an uncharted land or opened a new heaven to the human spirit.

Helen Keller

Well, At Least Readership Is Stabilizing

The blog reached a new multi-month low in pageviews although the last few days readership has picked up. I like to think this is one of the more unique political blogs out there in terms of format, features and commentary. Interestingly, China won the international readership page view race this month, with Canada a close second.

Lightning Round

• Donald Trump for President? Thumbs DOWN!
• Ohio Legislature Union Reform Law? Thumbs UP!
• Schumer (D-NY) Making a Straw Man of Tea Party? Thumbs DOWN!
• Tim Pawlenty GOP Presidential Startup? Very good recent interview: he may be the PERFECT candidate to run against Obama: Thumbs UP!
• Newt Gingrich GOP Presidential Campaign Startup? Thumbs DOWN!

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Whereas conditions remain serious, one minor sign of progress on the major websites and blogs I monitor is a shrinking number of daily updates. For example, for days, I've been seeing 3 daily posts on the Daiichi site to the NEI blog; there was only one today. Right now, in addition to routine spraying and injections, there seems to be a focus on worker safety with draining puddles inside building (to enable further work on restoring instrumentation and repairing/replacing equipment, especially residual heat removal pumps) and drawing down tunnels/trenches (thought related to recent measured surges to seawater/groundwater contamination). There are minor differences between the different sites and blogs, which might reflect timing of the information.

Atomic Power Blog notes:

• morning: Dewatering the reactor 1 through 3 trenches continues, with the reactor 1 tunnel down a meter. There is some discussion about the upcoming resin spray of the area, which essentially should pin down radioactive debris from becoming airborne (but will not neutralize it).
• afternoon: Radioactive iodine at 10,000 times the acceptable threshold has been found in the groundwater at Fukushima; there is speculation about the source, but a leading suspect is reactor 2 (because of the comparably higher volume of water added).
• evening: No recent data except a rant about Health Physics practices involving whether the TEPCO workers/subcontractors have and/or are wearing their self-reading, self-alarming dosimetry.

IAEA reports that that reactor condensate tank for reactor 1 is full and work is ongoing for pumping condensate to suppression pools for reactors 2 and 3. (This delays draining of turbine room basement floor contaminated puddles.) About two-thirds of food samples from Fukushima region meet conservative Japanese safety standards. Only 4 villages in the Fukushima prefecture have safety restrictions on drinking water and 3 of those reflect only the higher standards for infants.

NEI notes:

• SMR's: It may be that one of the end results of the Fukushima experience may be increased interest in smaller, scalable reactors (up to 300 megawatts vs. more than 1000). TVA, along with other companies and countries, is look at replacing fossil fuel plants with these, and the key question is whether the sales volume can drive price to a level competitive with larger reactors. (The smaller units are more manageable and can help mitigate, say, geographic risk.)
• afternoon: Continued as needed injections into the 3 problem reactors and spraying of the 4 affected spent fuel pools. Workers completed draining the contaminated turbine room basement for reactor 3. For the stabilized Daini site, there was smoke yesterday at one of the reactors, caused by a short circuit in a pump.

The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger reports several examples of HS, including  French and Japanese PM's paying politically correct lip service to nuclear power safeguards, discrimination against Fukushima refugees, and even the refusal to bury or cremate dead tsunami victims for fear of spreading radiation.

Fox News Continues Scaremongering Coverage on Fukushima

I'm limiting my time watching cable news, principally Fox News, but there were a couple of stories I heard discussed. To be fair, they were also discussed elsewhere, including the print media. The issue I have, again, with Fox News is the fact they continue to promote stories without sufficient context.

The first story sounded ominous: iodine found in West Coast milk samples? Now FNC did not hype the milk as unsafe to drink, but the question is the materiality of the story. It turns out the levels are 5000 times BELOW the threshold of LNT heuristic for safety. (There has been a similar scare about rain samples in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.) Keep in mind that iodine has a half-life of 8 days from its availability in Japan...

A quote you did not hear on Fox News? "[FDA senior scientist Patricia] Hansen said the radiation in Spokane [milk sample] is tiny compared with levels a person receives watching television or taking a round trip cross-country flight."

I fully expect Fox News to disclose that watching Fox News exposes you to more radiation than the milk they're discussing, don't you think? Who knew you not only have to worry about whether the airline pilot is sober or air traffic controllers are asleep, but now the radiation while you're flying? (No doubt passengers on the flight will want to make sure their milk isn't from Spokane...)

Another item focused on an unexpectedly high reading outside a certain radius of the Fukushima plant. (This may be the recent item I reported where they were going to repeat a certain test.) The anti-nukes, of course, immediately seized upon this as indisputable proof of the Fukushima contagion--but any researcher with a background in statistics is immediately suspicious of outliers. People know that sometimes medical tests are wrong--e.g., so-called false positives for cancer. I'm not saying the reading is erroneous, but when you consider that the readings of air, milk, and water all over Japan trending safer, what is the reason to believe the preponderance of evidence is wrong and a solitary data point is the truth? The HS blogger notes that this is a localized problem, not endemic for the surrounding area and IAEA does not recommend extending the evacuation radius beyond the current 30 kilometers.

Scaremongering On Steroids

I have a second (nutrition/diet) blog which I haven't published for a while. The basic context is that I have a number of email subscriptions focusing on health and nutrition, including alternative medicine and natural foods. I knew that one of the newsletter editors was in an anti-nuke Fukushima panic; as I've mentioned in past posts, I routinely sample the writings of people or organizations with alternative views: it's part of the free market of ideas and my personal interdisciplinary research style. But there are limits to my patience, and today's email resulted in an unsubscribe action. I won't publicly flame the mailer, but I think excerpts from the email helps explain exactly why I've been focusing so much attention over the past 3 weeks on providing a more balanced perspective. In part, my motivation is due to the fact that I believe that nuclear power plays an important role in energy security for the United States and can diversify part of our energy dependence on fossil fuels; this has been a consistent theme in my blog posts, and I'm seeing a global overreaction to a situation stemming from one of the largest natural disasters in Japanese history.

The email starts off: "Make no mistake, Fukushima is in a meltdown, and radiation is now showing up in U.S. milk products." No, it's not in meltdown. There likely some fuel damage in 3 reactors during the early hours of the crisis, but the control rods in all 3 reactors seated between fuel rods, stopping nuclear fission. There were issues with water pumps (getting water into the reactor pressurized vessel (RPV)), and automatic vents were failing, requiring manual pressure release of steam. High pressure makes coolant injection more difficult; without water to mitigate heat, temperature rises. Zirconium, the cladding over fuel (the first level of containment), has a very high melt point, and fuel has an even higher melt point. However, decay heat drops power to less than 1% over the first day. As injections with seawater and boric acid ("liquid control rods") resumed, the situation stabilized. Only estimates of fuel damage can be made, inferred by relative concentrations of contaminants.

One speculation is whether melted fuel (particularly from reactor 2) leaking from any openings in the zirconium cladding of the various fuel rods made it to the bottom of the RPV, and somehow worked its way through several inches of concrete and steel (and note there is a third layer of containment beyond that). It seems unlikely any suspected leak (if one exists) is significant, given the nature of ongoing efforts to control temperature and pressure through as necessary coolant injections.

Note I'm not saying the situation is normal; it remains serious. The cooling systems still aren't functional; instrumentation and pumps aren't fully operational. But the situation is being described out of proportion to the actual danger.

I have been very critical of Fox News for uncritical interviews with Michio Kaku, a physicist with a political agenda against nuclear armaments and nuclear power; I've noted that Fox News failed to disclose Kaku's bias; proper disclosure is a matter of journalistic ethics. The newsletter provided the following excerpt from the Kaku (whom the writer notes is a physicist) video:

If it goes to a full-scale evacuation of all personnel, it means that firefighters are no longer putting water onto the cores. That's the only thing preventing a full-scale meltdown at three reactor sites. Once they evacuate, then we past the point of no return. Meltdowns are inevitable at three reactor sites, leading to a tragedy far beyond that of Chernobyl, creating permanent dead zones in Japan..."If there is a full abandonment of the reactor site, we could be in freefall... Three raging meltdowns [are] in progress, one spent fuel pond [is] open to the air...

I think that when someone abuses his academic credentials, it's a violation of professional ethics. This is rampant, irresponsible speculation, far beyond the facts, the crucible for any scientist or researcher. Dr. Kaku is either intentionally or incompetently ignoring the differences in containment and other design differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima reactors.

I'm trying to place the timing of the video. As near as I can tell, the interview took place over last weekend after the Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan warned of a suspected breach last Friday; the earliest Youtube copy of the interview I've seen references March 27. The prime minister was attempting to explain how two TEPCO subcontractors, whom violated safety procedures by walking (without protective wear) in a standing puddle in the turbine room basement for reactor 3 and had to be treated for radiation burns. Clearly at the beginning of the interview, Kaku is referencing Kan's inference of a possible leak to explain the contamination in the puddle. He refers to TEPCO as the "laughing stock of the scientific community" and specifically argues that the rating of the disaster should be a 6 (on a 7-point scale) (there are specific criteria for each rating level, and Kaku seems to be making a superficial comparison to Three Mile Island, arguing since TMI involved one versus 3 problem reactors at Fukushima, Fukushima would be rated worse; that a "world-renowned scientist" should engage in such intellectually lazy, vapid analysis without exercising due diligence is utterly pathetic.)

Now Kaku has left himself a lot of wiggle room in his rant by saying his hypothetical assumes no workers can safely continue maintain coolant in the RPV's, but he totally ignores the fact that ambient radiation levels have steadily declined, and air, food, water, and milk samplings continue to improve below LNT safety thresholds. How many of Kaku's scientific colleagues will let him engage in such Chicken Little nonsense without rebuking his irresponsible behavior?

The problem with a scientist abusing his credentials and undermining his own credibility, effectively crying "fire!" in a movie theater, is that it results in public panic. Consider the reaction of the newsletter writer to Kaku's warnings: 

ARE YOU PREPARED YET? If you are...NOT prepared for radioactive fallout, you are falling behind the curve on what this world-renowned physicist is describing as "three raging meltdowns" happening right now. I cannot repeat this strenuously enough: I urge all ... readers to get squared away NOW with extra food, water, emergency medicine, iodine sources, extra fuel in your cars and a well-thought-out plan for what to do if a radiation fallout emergency is declared.

It sounds to me like someone forgot to take his meds... 

To the rest of mankind: RELAX... It's going to be fine. I promise. When I was in undergraduate school, there was a panic about an approaching comet; I remember this gig I did in 1999 where a fellow DBA was busy stocking months of food in some shelter away from the city, obsessing over the upcoming Y2K disaster. There will always be crackpots. Glenn Beck obsesses over the Anti-Christ/Twelfth Iman. And we're not even talking yet about Mayan predictions of 2012.

If you really want something to worry about, then consider the prospect that the American people might actually reelect Barack Obama in November 2012. That's the really scary nightmare: it means over half the American voters have lost their memory and are stark raving mad... 

Political Humor

A few originals:

• The missing Bronx Zoo Egyptian cobra found its way back to the reptile house. Even venomous snakes don't feel safe out alone in NYC at night...
• Sen. Schumer (D-NY) thought the mute button was on for a media conference call while he prepared his partisan colleagues on how to deliver their talking points about Speaker of the House Boehner (R-OH) and other House Republicans on budget negotiations: "I always use the word extreme...That is what the caucus instructed me to use this week.”  I don't think that's what President Obama meant by a need for greater transparency in government...

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Beach Boys, "Wouldn't It Be Nice?"

Miscellany: 3/30/11

Quote of the Day

You see things; and you say, "Why?" But I dream things that never were; and I say "Why not?"

George Bernard Shaw

Something that Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) Is NOT Cutting...

Courtesy of Dr. Perry's Carpe Diem blog: The average retired California public school teacher makes $51,072; you will be glad to know the average active teacher nationwide still makes more than a California retired teacher: $55,350. In fact, if you exclude teachers from New York, California, and Massachusetts, retired California teachers make roughly the same as the average active teacher nationwide, or better than roughly half of them (like the $35K teacher from South Dakota).

Something You Won't Hear on Fox News Channel

 The fishing village of Onagawa, Japan, about 75 miles from Fukushima Daiichi, lost over 10% of its population of 10,000 in the massive tsunami almost 3 weeks ago. Where did hundreds subsequently go to find shelter? The local nuclear power plant. Among other things, its surrounding wall is nearly twice as high as Fukushima Daiichi's; it only lost some sloshed spent fuel pool water during the earthquake and a minor (non-nuclear) fire on site.

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Incident Update

The big picture to stabilizing reactors 1 through 4  (the last only in terms of the spent fuel pool) is getting the cooling systems working. The contaminated puddles in turbine building basements have slowed down getting power restored to instrumentation and devices; some devices are also wet and must be repaired and/or replaced. Workers are trying to drain the contaminated water out of the first 3 basements. Contaminated water is worse in reactor 2, but they have not identified sources for the leaks.

The first topic I heard on Fox News coverage of today was a prospective resin spray over debris at Fukushima Daiichi resulting from earlier hydrogen explosions and other issues early in the crisis; this is to provide additional safety for on site workers. Many of the new updates I've seen on Fox News seem to be (coincidentally?) covered by the Kyoto News.

NEI notes:

• afternoon: [4/1/11 edit]. There is discussion of tanks being brought to the Daiichi site to handle any contaminated water from BOTH turbine room basements AND trenches/tunnels which can't be accommodated by current daisy chain pumping to the suppression pool surge tanks. One of the lessons learned is maintaining redundancy for backup power, in particular emergency mobile generators on hand.

IAEA reports on pumping from condensate storage to surge tanks for reactors 1 to 3 (i.e., first step in dewatering the puddles). One outlier external radiation reading to the northwest of the Daiichi site showing higher readings is being retested. Continuing food, milk and drinking water sampling show (higher) infant benchmarks being flagged in Fukushima prefecture, but rapidly stabilizing elsewhere.

Atomic Power Review notes:

• Wednesday morning: It looks as though TEPCO is trying to control the serious puddle/full trench at the front end by slowing the injections of coolant. A barge is reportedly being brought in to store contaminated water. Some sort of electrical fire under a pump panel at reactor 1 was detected and resolved; no impact on radiation level. There is confirmation from TEPCO that reactors 1 through 4 will be decommissioned. The government may also look at shuttering reactors 5 and 6 and stopping planned plants 7 and 8.
• Wednesday night:  Some earlier water spraying was aimed at flooding the drywell with the objective of controlling for a possible failure, say of a reactor containment vessel. There is a discussion about why contamination is particularly an issue with reactor 2 and various hypotheses on the nature of the earlier explosion.
•  Higher iodine readings offshore, thought to be coming from reactor 2.

The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger cites various sources updating statuses, noting that reactor pressurized vessels and spent fuel pools continue being sprayed/injected on an as-needed basis. He is skeptical about the effective Health Physics management since the contaminated water soaking 3 workers to their underwater should not have happened given waterproof characteristics to protective wear. He also pointed out the drop in seawater concentrations following the sandbagged trenches. (The late emerging spike in iodine reading seems to suggest to me a possible breach in the sandbag defense.) He also explains the reason for using the various backup pumps is that when the reactor temperature and pressure drop the steam-driven pumps don't operate.

My Fourth Nominee for Jackass of the Year 2011:

Congressman Edward Markey (D-MA)

Faithful readers know my description for this dubious award:  "a progressive Democrat distinguishing himself with profound lapses of civility, personal ethics, or partisanship or the demonstrated ability to do or say outrageous things."

Yesterday, Congressman Edward Markey (D-MA) introduced a bill to put a moratorium on licensing for new nuclear power plants pending bureaucratic resolution of lessons learned from Fukushima Daiichi. What we know is Fukushima Daiichi has withstood a record-breaking earthquake and tsunami, far beyond design capacities, with no fatalities and involving a design over 2 generations old, and at most marginal impact on human health and the environment. Apparently one nuclear plant approval in over 30 years since Three Mile Island is too fast a pace for Congressman Markey. For pandering to the anti-nukes, ignoring the outstanding safety record of carbon-free, reliable nuclear power provided by over 100 American plants,  lessening our dependence on unreliable foreign producers of fossil fuels, and politically exploiting fear, uncertainty, and doubt being stirred up by irresponsible American news organizations, Edward Markey has earned my undying contempt.

Incidentally, for the record in the event some want to allege that I am a shill for the nuclear power industry: I do not work (nor have worked) for any nuclear power plant, and I own no direct investments in relevant miners or utilities. My interest in nuclear power goes back to when, after my first Master's degree, I was selected as a math instructor candidate at the Navy Nuclear Power School, which has provided training for NCO's and officers serving on our nuclear-powered submarines.

The "Slippery Slope" Argument and Libya

I mentioned in passing in yesterday's post one of FNC's morning hosts, Gretchen Carlson, making repeated references to the slippery slope argument, e.g., if the US assists the Libyan revolutionaries, it is morally required to intervene whenever another government commits an injustice against its own people. What stimulated revisiting the slippery slope argument was listening to conservative Tucker Carlson, Daily Caller founder and a Dennis Miller radio talk show substitute host, rant derisively against American military involvement in Libya, including Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)'s support and military conservatives (e.g., John McCain). Once again, we are asked, "How is this in America's national interests?"

This commentary is not intended to be a full response, but I would like to go beyond the surface-level talking points.

First, I would distinguish between short-term and long-term interests. I myself accept the limitations of America's resources and realize that we cannot be the world's policeman; in fact, the ubiquitous presence of American power is an issue with many foreign citizens and a motivating factor for Obama's egalitarian style of diplomacy (including the infamous apology tour). I have argued that the UN process with any permanent member of the Security Council willing to exercise its trump card in defending crony interests is impotent in responding to rapidly-evolving events on the ground, in this case with Libyan revolutionary forces. Clearly there is no effective regional leadership to provide stabilization, e.g., in Africa or the Arab League.

We do have resources in the area, and I think it is hypocritical, particularly in terms of the French alliance during our own Revolutionary War, to argue that we have to turn away from even limited assistance because Qaddafi is not murdering American citizens or attacking our property or personnel. This is an abandonment of international leadership, which is not in our interests. Does this mean that any two-bit dictator is our puppet master and can pull our strings by any ugly threat against the human rights of his country's citizens? No. I'm certainly not arguing it's an exclusive responsibility. But as cosmopolitans, we have a vested interest in the international recognition and protection of unalienable human rights, especially as our citizens work in or visit other countries.

Second, our potential activities are constrained by context. For example, we may not approve of certain human rights policies in Russia and China, both nuclear-armed and with formidable militaries; obviously our actions must take into account an adversary's available resources, including technologies and personnel. In other contexts, there may be limited access (e.g., airspace flyover rights), limitations of weapon technologies, the nature of relevant impacts on any allies in the region, regional stability, the nature, scope and evidence of alleged human rights abuses, the likelihood of mission success, etc.

We can use an analogy like being a witness to a crime, say a vicious physical attack on a child, woman or senior citizen. If the criminal is 6'9" and weighs 480 pounds or has a lethal weapon in his possession, we risk becoming victims ourselves by interceding.

In essence, we have the diplomatic equivalent of the Serenity Prayer:

God grant me the serenity

to accept the things I cannot change;

courage to change the things I can;

and wisdom to know the difference.

I don't think it's necessary or even possible to establish an exhaustive decision tree regarding the potential use of military force. In the real world, a President often has to cope with imperfect (incomplete, conflicting, poor quality) information; clearly this was a problem in the setup for the liberation of Iraq.

Third, we need to recognize that the use of military resources or force may be necessary in contexts beyond direct national interest or imminent attack.  We may have obligations to allies through our treaties, international/coalition activities, humanitarian efforts, and/or contribute to global economic security (e.g., guarantee safe sea lanes). I think in particular the Middle East has been a volatile region, and Qaddafi's desperate attempts to retain power is potentially destabilizing with possible refugee issues, e.g., France and Egypt.

Do I think the anti-war folks or the isolationists will be satisfied? No. But the world has changed; we are not insulated by two vast oceans on our east and left borders--we can conduct business across continents at the blink of an eye; we account for nearly a quarter of global GDP and have the world's largest economy despite a much smaller percentage of  its population.  The idea that we can simply melt away in the background of over 100 nations is a state of denial.

Do I believe Obama satisfied his critics? No. I think first of all, he needs to avoid setting unrealistic expectations. Second, he has to downplay any defensiveness and not sound professorial and abstract. Third, keep the message simple: the issue is Qaddafi, not the US, and Qaddafi should do the right thing and go into exile. Less is more.

Political Humor

Instead of calling our mission in Libya a war, the White House is calling it a "kinetic military action," which sounds better than "potentially endless quagmire." - Jay Leno

[I can hardly wait to hear Fed Reserve Chair "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke refer to quantitative easing as "kinetic economic activity" instead of  leading to "potentially ruinous hyperinflation"...]

President Obama spoke about our role in Libya. He’s not sure when the war will end, what happens when we win, or how much it will cost, but other than that it was quite informative. - Jay Leno

[President Obama spoke about our role in Libya. We didn't know when the speech would end, what questions about Libya were resolved by the speech, or what would happen in Libya after the speech, but some viewers liked his new political spin moves during "Dancing (Around the Libya Issue) With the President". Asked to judge the speech, Qaddafi said that Obama's performance was a little pitchy, hit a few flat notes, and didn't add anything new to the justifications cited for the original Iraq no-fly zone.]

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Beach Boys, "Help Me Rhonda"

Miscellany: 3/29/11

Quote of the Day

I desire so to conduct the affairs of this administration that if at the end I have lost every other friend on earth, I shall at least have one friend left, and that friend shall be down inside of me.

Abraham Lincoln

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

Overall, keep in mind some broad interim objectives: a transition from diesel/backup power to electric power; phasing out seawater for (preferred) freshwater; taking any steps necessary, under current conditions, to minimize worker exposure to harmful contamination; repairing/replacing pumps and restoring instrumentation functionality.

The latest scaremongering headline on Fox News is about 3 workers trying to connect a pipe and getting soaked to their underwear although supposedly wearing waterproof protective gear. If you read related news accounts, you'll find out that the workers quickly washed themselves off and were not injured; do you think Fox News mentioned this salient fact? [Of course not! What morally outrageous thing will these "journalists" do next? Try to suggest a link between an alleged uptick in Japanese baby illnesses with drinking water?] Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced that the country was on "maximum alert"; unfortunately, this lends itself to an impression that the situation is escalating out of control, other than on a clear path to stabilization, with favorable trends in ambient radiation level, declining measured traces in food and drinking water, etc., not to mention no related fatalities to date.

NEI notes:

• morning: One explanation for any recent spike in nearby ocean readings has been overflow of a reactor plant 2 trench, with 100 rem contaminated water. TEPCO is sandbagging relevant borders and monitoring other trenches with increasing water levels. (None of the trenches empty into the sea.)
• afternoon: TEPCO has revised its soil sample findings from yesterday: all 5 samples showing plutonium are now thought to be from (likely) reactor 3 fuel, still at a concentration not harmful to human health. TEPCO continues efforts to drain contaminated turbine room basement floor puddles (into condensers) for the first 3 reactors and any relevant contaminated water puddles for reactor 4. (Recall that all fuel had been removed from the reactor containment vessel from reactor 4 in November in order to do maintenance within the vessel. The relevant issue for reactor 4 is its large spent fuel pond and hence neutron-activated chlorine from the use of seawater as a coolant.) There is confirmation that the US Navy barges of freshwater arrived.
• evening: freshwater is now replenishing spent fuel ponds 2 and 3 and scheduled to start in fuel pond 4. (The use of freshwater should dilute the impact of activated elements in impure seawater coolant.) Over 60 food samples from 8 prefectures near or encompassing the Daiichi site showed safe readings of iodine and cesium. Readings off the discharge point from the Daiichi reactors to the sea show significantly lower radiation readings. Fish samples off the coast of the Chiba prefecture showed no material risk to human consumption. US EPA readings continue to show no risk from any relevant Japanese plumes.

The NEI blog recommended the Atomic Power Review blog. The relevant Tuesday morning post had an interesting discussion of a daisy chain arrangement for pumping out the turbine room basement puddles. Recall the issue is target full condenser hotwells. So the plan seems to be to pump water from condensate storage to the suppression pool, from condenser hotwells to condensate storage and then draining the puddles to condensate hotwells. The blogger also notes TEPCO hasn't announced a plan for relieving water levels in the near-full or overflowing trenches (discussed above).

The Hiroshima Syndrome blogger provided some context for discussing yesterday's plutonium samples. If you recall, 5 samples taken at the plant saw traces of plutonium, 3 of which were originally reported to be typical samples of bomb plutonium (PU-239) from Cold War era nuclear bomb testing in the Pacific. [See above NEI briefing for a revision of results.] The remaining 2 samples revealed a mix of two other isotopes (PU-238, PU-240) in addition to PU-239, contained in reactor 3 fuel (roughly 1-2% and 33% respectively). So the big question is: how did the fuel plutonium get in the soil? Most probably through the air (just like the bomb plutonium). We already know there was some (differing levels of) damage in the cores for the first 3 reactors, with exposure of zirconium cladding within the reactor containment vessels until (the ongoing) coolant injections stabilized the situation. Any breaches in the cladding would have enabled some leaking of fuel/byproducts into the coolant and traces of relevant materials get evaporated with the steam, which makes its way through the system to the torus; the torus pressure builds to the point a relief valve releases the contaminated steam into secondary containment. We already know about steam releases into the environment, and as to the trench run-offs, the HS blogger makes reference to the contamination soup of neutron-activated chlorine from the spent fuel pools in combination with relevant contaminated reactor-generated steam.

In addition, the HS blogger returns to the ongoing controversy of whether the reactor 4 spent fuel pool (with 250 tons of spent fuel) boiled dry. Citing a recent study by Dr. Mattias Braun, the estimated time required  would be 10 days--but replenishment of the spent fuel pond started within the second half of that period. (There have also been some general hypotheses about whether the earthquake displaced a significant amount of coolant from the spent fuel and/or whether there has been structural damage to the pool lining. However, we know this much: the ambient radiation levels have been steadily improving with existing spraying into the spent pools (to accommodate evaporation due to decay heating).) He also provides an interesting motivation for the recent switchover from firetruck pumps to temporary electrical pumps: he suggests the stronger firetruck pumps were more capable of injecting coolant at initially very high temperature/pressure reactor readings.

Political Rhetoric Over Libya: Stop the Madness

Yes, by "madness" I mean both Qaddafi and the political talking points. I have heard predictable, hypocritical partisan sniping from both sides. A bit of a history: the overwhelming majority of Democrats in Congress voted against the authorization of the use of force in the first Gulf War, despite an international coalition of 30 nations, which sought the liberation of occupied Kuwait. The post-2004 rhetoric of all the major Democratic Presidential candidates (including Obama, Clinton, and Biden) is clearly inconsistent with the reality of the surge in Afghanistan and the Libya engagement. On the other hand, many of the Republicans are trying to turn the tables on the Democrats, echoing their arguments on military scope creep, ill-defined parameters, unaffordable costs (see below), Presidential overreach (checks and balances), etc. PLEASE. Enough already! Fox News coverage, which I've heavily criticized recently for misleading coverage on the Fukushima nuclear incident, is heavily slanted in favor of the GOP/conservative critics. There's been coverage sympathetic with Qaddafi's claim the opposition is a proxy for Al Qaeda. I must have heard morning host Gretchen Carlson repeat "slippery slope" 3 or 4 times within 10 minutes...

The Congress is not a rubber stamp for a militarily-aggressive President, but it's difficult to argue that Nobel Peace Prize-winning President Obama, whom deliberated for some time on the Afghanistan surge and the Libyan no-fly zone, is abusing his power and responsibilities as Commander in Chief. In fact, the US Senate passed a referendum early this month, urging the President to establish a no-fly zone. The polls I've seen show strong majority support for our measured steps on Libya. The Congress can defund any unauthorized adventure.

As for Gretchen Carlson's anxiety, there's a qualitative distinction between what has happened elsewhere and Qaddafi's actual actions (including well-known incidents from years ago) and threats against innocent Libyan citizens or others.  The US is not responsible for the Libyan revolution. But to look the other way as genocide occurs, when in fact the US military also has a secondary mission of humanitarian assistance, undermines our international leadership and standing. Do we need to be worried about mission creep? Of course, but I do support what Obama has done (although not his process in getting there).

I don't have a problem with Obama's playing his cards close to his vest on this occasion. If Syria thinks twice about brutally suppressing dissidents, if Qaddafi decides to go into exile worried about what Obama might do next...: so much the better.

Lindsey Graham: GOP Funding Criticism of Libya: Thumbs UP!

I am a fiscal hawk--just check my blog description. I would radically streamline regulatory authorities, I would wring out redundancy, I would make deep cuts in manpower and compensation and flatten bureaucracy, consolidate federal offices and military bases, cut (if not eliminate altogether) corporate subsidies (including food and energy), and slash military and entitlement spending. Let me say--I know it's easier said than done, and I fully expect it would make me enormously unpopular. Whether it is the costs of liberating and rebuilding Iraq and/or Afghanistan or enforcing a no-fly zone against Libya, I believe in full transparency of the costs--fiscal and attrition on the battlefield.

I think just like disingenuous progressive federal judges whom rationalize their way to a policy-based preference, some Republicans or conservatives are trying to suggest fiscal conservatism as the rationale for their opposition, in reality this is little more than a politically convenient argument against all things Barack Obama. The amount of money spent on the Libyan operation is a rounding error in over $3.5T federal spending. Every little bit counts, of course--but if these GOP or conservative voices were truly all that concerned about defense spending, why haven't they explicitly come out for scaling back and/or consolidating overseas bases, cutting the military payroll, eliminating cost-overrun projects, etc.? (For the record, I support those steps.)

Political Humor

A few originals:

• Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen recently purchased a MiG-29 Russian fighter jet. It just goes to show what lengths men will go to in order to impress Anna Chapman....
• Jimmy Kimmel notes nobody seems to know how to spell the Libyan dictator's surname. So the question is: we know he's under the no-fly zone, but did he make the no-fly list?

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Beach Boys, "Surfin' Safari"

Miscellany: 3/28/11

Quote of the Day

Don't take anyone else's definition of success as your own.

Jacqueline Brisken

American News Media and Fukushima: Same Old Same Old

I have written multiple rants about the tabloid coverage, but it continues. When I came from a meeting and glanced at midday stories, Fox News was highlighting its latest scaremongering story: the presence of plutonium outside the facility (on site by other sources?) We are quickly reminded that plutonium is distinctly part of the fuel mix for reactor 3. We are told about damaged fuel rods in the reactors, surging radiation levels in seawater samples... We are ominously cautioned about iodine detected in several samples across the United States. And, of course, there are the "experts". Question: have you noticed that Fox News never seems to talk to, say, chairmen of nuclear engineering and safety departments of universities? Have you heard the sensationalized, leading questions? Have you noticed that their interviews in Japan are only with American reporters, not with any of the principals? Don't get me started on Megyn Kelly... Today she became the classic textbook example of the Peter Principle. Whatever her merits as a legal analyst, she has no credibility at all when it comes to discussing scientific issues. I do not think I'll ever view her as a credible news anchor in the future. I don't have an issue with Beck and the Fox News prime time lineup expressing opinions, but news coverage should be held to a higher standard. Perhaps Megyn Kelly has heard the expression "the WHOLE truth." [Let me point out I also got an ABC News email alert on the plutonium story.]

I will discuss things more fully in my update shortly. But here are a few facts Fox News has constantly omitted from their coverage: (1) that plutonium in reported samples has been found doesn't mean the plutonium came from a Fukushima reactor; (2) the nature and extent of the plutonium is relevant to safety concerns; (3) radiation levels can fluctuate: for example, steam is released from the reactor containment vessel as needed, on an aperiodic basis; again, no discussion about safety of relevant levels; (4) the reported iodine trace levels in US water samples are mentioned, days after US experts debunked any risk; even if you dismiss the risk after the tease, what's the purpose of the tease, other than to spread alarmism?  (5) the suspected core damage occurred early in the crisis and has been stabilized. There is no discussion of decay heat, that after 1 day we are already under 1% of full reactor power. There have been continuing injections of new coolant into vessels and spraying into the spent fuel pools. What Fox News has been doing is providing selective facts without sufficient context and leading the viewer to make invalid inferences.

Fukushima Nuclear Incident Update

TEPCO says that the reactor 3 reactor containment vessel is now being injected by temporary electrical pump vs. fire pump.

NEI notes:

• morning: the contaminated, flooded turbine basement for reactor 1 is being pumped into the main condenser; drainage conduits (except for reactor 3 because of rubble accessibility) have similar characteristics to (similar) flooded basement readings. Electrical-driven (versus diesel) pump injections of freshwater in reactor containment vessels 1 through 3. Sampling near a discharge outlet showed iodine decreasing from 1850 times normal to 250 times normal.
• afternoon: the above referenced plutonium samples showed only 2 of 5 detections compatible with reactor 3 fuel (the suspected source because the other reactors do not use plutononium). At minimum the remaining 3 are suspected traces from Pacific testing during the Cold War era. In any event, none of the samples were considered at amounts considered to be potentially harmful to human health.
• evening: pumping out the flooded basements at reactors 2 through 4 has not started because of full condenser or other issues. Ibaraki and Fukushima prefecture drinking water iodine readings remain stable below the safety level for infants; 6 prefectures (included the two above) have vegetable and certain fruits with flagged iodine levels. The 3 hospitalized workers under observation (two with radiation burns last Thursday) have been released.

IAEA claims freshwater is now on site (Navy barges finally arrived?) and as of tomorrow (preferred) freshwater will replace seawater in spraying of reactor 3 and reactor 4 spent fuel pools.

Hiroshima Syndrome blogger argues that comparable amounts being sprayed into the spent fuel pools daily reflect the loss due to evaporation from the pools. Extrapolating from the aggregate amount sprayed, he argues that the theory that a few spent fuel pools had been boiled empty is untenable. He continues to criticize TEPCO's confusing terminology using the term "white smoke" instead of (more likely) steam. He also claims that the suggestion of leaks of the reactor containment vessels is inconsistent with the fact that pressure hasn't dropped  between coolant rejections.

Coming to a Theater Near You: "Atlas Shrugged"

By sheer coincidence, on my bedroom dresser over the past several months is a paperback edition of Ayn Rand's "The Fountainhead", Rand's first literary success. Rand, who died in 1982, espoused a philosophy of Objectivism; probably the best known current proponent of Objectivism is Dr. Leonard Peikoff. At the heart of Objectivism is an core belief in rational self-interest (versus altruism); in political terms, society is best served by unabashed individualism, a laissez-faire capitalism. Rand scorns conservatism, which hobbles individual accomplishment with extraneous considerations. (For example, the recent Bush Administration increased regulations and domestic expenditures.) No doubt Ayn Rand would be very frustrated with the young woman whom don't want her love interest to be intimidated by her strong academic performance or by sports trophies for everyone, not running up a score, ...

How ironic, in the Age of Obama, that a motion picture debuts which emphasizes the importance of individual accomplishment versus politically correct collectivist platitudes of teamwork. I can think of at least 6 projects, off the top of my head, where I single-handedly turned around a failing project (including projects at IBM and Oracle). There are people with scores of inventions, researchers with hundreds with articles, prolific novelists and songwriters, entrepreneurs whom create multiple successful businesses, etc.

In Greek mythology, Atlas is a Titan ordered by the god Zeus to carry the world on his shoulder. Ayn Rand asks, what if Atlas was to decide to cast aside that burden, i.e., to shrug? In a more pragmatic context, what if the entrepreneurs, the inventors, and the other job creators who carry the American economy on their shoulders were to go on strike? What would the collectivists like "spread the wealth around" Barack Obama, Michael Moore, George Soros and others do? No matter how much the statists steal, they will find a way to spend it all. Why should they care about efficient, limited spending? Other than death, the only thing certain is that statists will find a way to sustain their future spending through some form of taxation.

John Galt is Ayn Rand's protagonist, and he has a lesson in mind for the collectivists...

Political Humor

A few originals:

• After VP Joe Biden's staff temporarily locked a journalist in the closet, GLAAD immediately protested, noting that it has struggled for decades to bring people out of the closet.
• Remember President Obama from his South American trip finding the door to the Oval Office locked? That's right--it was Joe Biden's staff.

Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

The Beach Boys, "Fun, Fun, Fun"