Those who have been required to memorize the world as it is
will never create the world as it might be.
Judith Groch
Election Watch
As we head into the closing days before the election, I'm starting a daily countdown segment (assuming noteworthy items), a more focused version of my periodic "political potpourri" feature.
The RCP House summary today shows Republican (lean/likely/safe) shift of 2 seats to 216-179; this leaves them two shy of a virtual clinch of control of the House. The trend seems irreversible at this point, and I think some of the polls are understated. For example, the historically Republican (in theory) NY-23, which Bill Owens, who supported the health care bill, won when the Republican vote was split between a moderate to liberal Republican and a Tea Party conservative, should be coming back to the GOP, especially in a sweeping midterm election. It is currently rated a toss up, mostly because Hoffman has refused to drop out while Doheny has remained around the 40% level with Owens in the mid-40's. The fact remains Hoffman lost the GOP primary (vs. last year's back room nomination of Scozzafava); I believe that Hoffman supporters, sensing that Hoffman can't win, will break for Doheny rather than let Owens win again. The We Ask America poll showed a shift of 14 points in favor of political novice Dold for Kirk's open IL-10 seat, and I've noticed several attack ads by Kratovil on Harris in MD-1, no spots by Harris, but Harris leads by 11 in the latest poll (RCP rates this one lean-GOP). My point about raising MD-1 is that it looks like traditional GOP districts are returning to the fold, and the centrist/conservative Democratic coalition takeaways over the past 2 elections are collapsing.
I've been a strong supporter of Ehrlich, the former GOP governor who, despite majority approval ratings in 2006, lost in a heavily Democratic state to former Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. O'Malley is growing desperate, as is clear by his pleading for Obama to make public appearances in his behalf and personal attack ads. Ehrlich is running one of the smartest ad campaigns I've seen; the latest one is a Reaganesque "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?". RCP classifies the race as "lean Democrat" with the latest poll showing Ehrlich about 5 points down. For Ehrlich to be polling this close to O'Malley means that Ehrlich is winning the battle for independents. I expect the race to continue to narrow; you have to give the edge to O'Malley given the difficulty of beating an incumbent and the larger registered voter base, but I can see Ehrlich pulling a repeat 2002 surprise, especially given the current voter dissatisfaction with incumbents.
The most interesting gubernatorial races, though, include former Colorado Republican Congressman Tancredo, running on a third party ticket, whom is within statistical error of his Democratic opponent (the Republican candidate has personal issues and is mirroring a Scozzafava-like collapse of support to the single-digit range), and former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee. whom is also running as a very credible third-party candidate in Rhode Island.
French Senate Votes to Approve Retirement Reform:
THUMBS UP!
The reform, backed by Sarkozy survived a critical vote today (two more votes are needed to pass); it means phasing in an eventual raising of the retirement age to 62. Unions have been on strike, particularly at oil refineries, in an attempt to pressure the government into backing off. Sarkozy really has no choice because of a competitive global economy, a tight budget, and an aging workforce.
American progressives have taken notice and strenuously argue, in terms of firming up social security, that raising the retirement age is nonnegotiable. I had to count to 10 as I heard Delaware Senate front runner Chris Coons recently also argue that there is a phony crisis, because we have up to 20 years before the reserve runs out. For all the criticisms I've made of Christine O'Donnell, Coons' state-of-denial response is more of the same old same old ideological talking points we've come to expect from progressives.
Let's be clear: most payroll contributions (individual and business match) are not being invested but redirected to today's recipients. Any net savings are required by law to cover the federal deficit. These aren't income-producing investments (say, a toll road) but periodic expenses. As I mentioned in prior posts, because of falling payroll taxes in the struggling economy, we have been running at a deficit on social security itself. This means a partial meltdown of past Treasury bill IOU's. The federal government has to sell debt to pay back its redeemed IOU's.
Now technically, given the pay-as-you-go concept, the government will always have at least some money going to beneficiaries from current workers, even after the mountains of IOU's evaporate. The problem is that the difference will have to come out of the operational budget, which means future generations are facing economy-crushing tax hikes not just to cover their own government costs, but the underfunded beneficiary checks. This is an unethical shift of the payment burden from the current generations to subsequent generations. We owe it to future generations to pay our fair share of the cost burden now.
One of My Saddest Days While At UH
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| Rolling Rock, Fall River |
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| Notre Dame de Lourdes Church before May 11, 1982 |
My mom was born and raised in an eastern section of Fall River, in or near "Flint Village". My dad and she got married in her home parish, Notre Dame de Lourdes Church, an impressive structure that stood out as Dad approached the city by car from Otis AFB on the cape on frequent visits (I invariably hiked the several blocks distance from my grandfather's house to Rolling Rock near the park). My maternal uncle, a retired priest in the Fall River diocese, after ordination served as a curate at his home parish. My grandfather was a long-time volunteer, helping out with the processing of collections after Mass. I spent a few weeks at the beginning of fifth and sixth grades attending the parish school as my Dad transitioned into new assignments requiring our eventual relocation. I was finishing up my Master's at the University of Texas when my grandfather died. I think that was the last time I saw the church; I did visit my paternal aunt, a former sister/nun, one weekend the following year, but I think at the time she belonged to a different parish.
I was working on my MBA at the University of Houston when, to my utter shock, the national evening news broadcast covered the story of the tragic fire, destroying the beautiful church. For those interested, there is a well-done slideshow retrospective of the church and the fire on Flickr. [They did rebuild the church, but it was/is a nondescript flat-roofed building.]
This was not the only coincidence in my life. My alma mater, Our Lady of the Lake University, also experienced a tragic fire in the main building on campus May 6, 2008. The military base where I was born closed a few weeks shortly thereafter. The Texas Longhorns lost their first home football game in 30 games when I was in attendance. I went to a Houston Astros game expecting to see Nolan Ryan notch his 3000th strikeout, but he got knocked out early in the game, about 3 KO's shy. The University of Houston Cougars lost the NCAA basketball championship in the last two seconds of the game (on a poorly defended layup) while I cheered them on.
The Minnesota Vikings have lost all 4 Super Bowls they've been in. No, I hadn't even set foot in Minnesota until the late 1980's; I probably have one of the more unusual stories of how I became a fan--it all started when some 8-year-old kid on my Little League team started taunting me about having a girlfriend in front of the other guys... However, when I checked into a Minneapolis hotel for an academic conference nearly 20 years later, by sheer coincidence, the Viking cheerleaders were booked into an appearance in the lobby, which was really, really cool. Most guys have never been within 10 yards of a real pro football cheerleader, and guys, take my word for it: they look even better in person; God is good. My views on girls had changed by then...
A former employer and a client filed for bankruptcy within a year or two of my leaving. I slept through a tornado passing through our area near Salina, KS; my siblings swear the winds nearly bent over a nearby tree. Hurricane Alicia ripped through Houston while I was working on my doctorate. Shortly after I moved to Santa Clara, CA, my colleague stopped me in the middle of a conversation and asked if I noticed anything; I didn't think much of a slight shaking of the second story floor until he explained it was a small earthquake and explained local papers routinely summarized them weekly. I know what you're thinking: yes, I have noticed an inordinate number of coastal flood warnings from Accuweather since I moved to the Baltimore suburbs. I swear: it's all a coincidence...
My Favorite Lottery Commercial
Maryland Lottery had a golden egg video (also available here), which I've occasionally made reference to in past posts. [I haven't found the video with an embeddable link; I considered uploading the clip, but I don't hold the rights (although I don't think the State of Maryland would object to my promoting their commercial).]
I do not bet. If I wanted to bet, I would vote Democratic where the rules of the House are stacked against you. The government makes sure it gets its cut. In the game of Government Monopoly, if you pass 'Go', you have to pay $200, and if you don't have any properties or houses and you land on a Dem square, you can draw a card from the Obama Deck, where you qualify for a house for no money down, you get to cancel the costs of your college loans if you agree to work for higher pay and benefits with the federal government, and/or you win the right to collect 39.6% of the rent paid to the richest player on the board. The Short Line Railroad has been replaced by the Union Railroad, where you pay union dues even if you don't hold a union card.
Yes, the Dems liken investments in the stock market to wagering at casinos, but the American voter gambled on a lightly-experienced first-term senator whom never had administrative experience and a Democratic Congress which has not balanced a budget in decades. They threw up to $860B of money at an ineffectual stimulus (which just happened to coincide with Democratic spending priorities) and then decided their next priorities were not the expiring Bush tax cuts or shoring up a chronically underfunded entitlement system, but expanding the government role in the health care system, putting people's private sector health care insurance plans at risk, pushing-on-a-string financial "reform" and trying to establish a high-tax, job-crippling cap-and-trade policy in an already weak economy.
What I like about this commercial is the underlying message about short-term versus long-term perspective. The farmer's wife discovers that the hen they bought has laid a golden egg; she rushes to tell her husband they are financially set for life and... [Watch the commercial.] The lottery clearly wants to suggest one way to get financial security for life is to win the lottery, not to depend on finding a chicken or goose laying golden eggs..
From a conservative standpoint, tax hikes on the wealthy are a short-term gain (to bankroll Democratic spending sprees): penny-wise, pound-foolish (just like the hungry farmer), because income-generating activities (e.g., selling a long-term stock position or other asset) or compensation structure are affected by expected costs, including taxation. Government competes with the private sector for resources. In the long run, if government grows too big, it smothers out the fragile fire of economic growth in the private sector, on which it depends to cover its expenses. The only real solution November 2: a leaner, more responsive federal government focusing on core distinctive competencies and stabilizing policy to clarify business outlook for decisionmaking, promoting business growth and federal fiscal responsibility, getting out of the health care, insurance, lending, and car businesses, and streamlining personnel, rules and regulations. Got a vote?
Political Humor
Relationship experts say romance novels are bad because they give women unreasonable expectations. It's what porno films do for men. - Jay Leno
[It's what progressive political speeches and promises do for voters...
When Bill Clinton called Obama's stance on Iraq a fairy tale, he didn't address Obama's other tall tales, like how the government can expand health care coverage while spending less money and how the government can run home mortgage and student loan businesses, insurance companies, and auto producers, while it can't even balance its own checkbook.]
An original:
- You know that Government Motors car that Barack Obama keeps driving, you know the one with nearly a negative 4 million jobs on the odometer and a stalling economy/job engine? The one he's been driving on the stimulus-funded Road to Nowhere? The one with the automatic transmission he tells you has 'D' to drive forward and 'R' to drive backwards? When a majority of Americans believe that the country is going in the wrong direction, backing away from a financial and economic cliff is generally considered prudent. Most Americans are also more careful over when and where they drive when they can barely afford to fill up at the gas station on a limited budget.
Herman's Hermits, "I'm Henry VIII, I Am"
