Aristotle maintained that women have fewer teeth than men; although he was twice married, it never occurred to him to verify this statement by examining his wives' mouths.
Bertrand Russell
Tea Party Express: The Slogan of the Day is "Vet Your Candidates"
Progressive Democrats don't know much about history, biology, French, geography, or math--but they do know symbolism: they think if they look just the right way, appear in the right setting, say just the right things, the public will vote for them, no matter the real agenda behind the curtain.
When the independents and moderates supported Obama, they didn't think they were voting for $1.4T deficits, government takeovers of AIG, the GSE's, and the auto companies, the nationalization of student loans, and a vast new government health care bureaucracy and a health insurance mandate on both businesses and individuals among other things. They thought they were getting a centrist. In fact, Obama knowingly misled them: after all he was promising 95% of American workers a tax cut and had attacked Bush's deficits. He had supported a DC gun ban, but when the Supreme Court ruled a ban to be unconstitutional, he said he agreed to that. He initially was against any relaxation of oil drilling restrictions off the coasts, but in the face of $140/barrel oil, he signaled flexibility on the issue of drilling. (But when it came to delivering on those pledges, he only opened up something like 5% of eligible areas, maintaining bans on the West Coast, the East Coast north of New Jersey, and promising areas in Alaska and pushing out Gulf drilling further from the coast; even those were quickly frozen after the Deepwater Horizon tragedy.)
Democrats have been expert at creating straw men and making broad, unsupported allegations: for example, John Kerry constantly complained about Republicans questioning his patriotism. A single attendee at a 2008 Palin rally, when Sarah Palin brought up the name of Bill Ayers, a former radical, shouted "kill him"; it was immediately reported nationwide as a threat aimed at Obama himself. (I never really liked the McCain campaign's focus on Obama's incidental contact with Ayers, whom had never been convicted of a crime and seemed to be living the benign life of a university professor since the 1970's. I thought Obama's connections with Rezco, Blago, and the Chicago political machine were more substantive and relevant; the connection with Jeremiah Wright was also pertinent given Obama's untenable excuse he was not aware of Wright's inflammatory sermons.) Then there are the preposterous excuses, with the Senate GOP just barely able to filibuster any measure (if they voted unanimously), that the GOP was obstructionist versus the Democrats trying to steamroll them for partisan legislation. The GOP holding tax cuts "hostage"? PLEASE. The fact is that the top 5% pays almost 60% of the tax burden, almost twice its percentage of income. Consider the following chart:
Summary of Federal Individual Income Tax Data, 2008
(Updated October 2010)
(Updated October 2010)
Number of Returns with Positive AGI | AGI ($ millions) | Income Taxes Paid ($ millions) | Group's Share of Total AGI | Group's Share of Income Taxes | Income Split Point | Average Tax Rate | |
All Taxpayers | 139,960,580 | 8,426,625 | 1,031,512 | 100% | 100% | - | 12.24% |
Top 1% | 1,399,606 | 1,685,472 | 392,149 | 20.00% | 38.02% | $380,354 | 23.27% |
1-5% | 5,598,423 | 1,241,229 | 213,569 | 14.73% | 20.70% | 17.21% | |
Top 5% | 6,998,029 | 2,926,701 | 605,718 | 34.73% | 58.72% | $159,619 | 20.70% |
5-10% | 6,998,029 | 929,761 | 115,703 | 11.03% | 11.22% | 12.44% | |
Top 10% | 13,996,058 | 3,856,462 | 721,421 | 45.77% | 69.94% | $113,799 | 18.71% |
10-25% | 20,994,087 | 1,821,717 | 169,193 | 21.62% | 16.40% | 9.29% | |
Top 25% | 34,990,145 | 5,678,179 | 890,614 | 67.38% | 86.34% | $67,280 | 15.68% |
25-50% | 34,990,145 | 1,673,932 | 113,025 | 19.86% | 10.96% | 6.75% | |
Top 50% | 69,980,290 | 7,352,111 | 1,003,639 | 87.25% | 97.30% | >$33,048 | 13.65% |
Bottom 50% | 69,980,290 | 1,074,514 | 27,873 | 12.75% | 2.70% | <$33,048 | 2.59% |
Source: Internal Revenue Service | |||||||
So let's just say, for simplification, that the top 5% paid an extra 13% surtax on the $606B; that's say an extra $80B. Would that amount have closed the budget deficit? Of course not. It was in the hundreds of billions of dollars. So when the Obama Administration comes around and says we can't "afford", say, a two-year extension of the current tax rates for the top 2%, but it can for the 75% share of taxes paid below the top 2% taxpayers, it's a nebulous talking point.
Rich Iott, a Republican candidate for the 9th Congressional district in Ohio, is in the middle of an out-of-left-field Christine O'Donnell-style revelation recently reported by The Atlantic. Iott is a military history buff, often taking part in events like Civil War reenactments. Iott claims that he often participated in such activities as father-son activities. However, one particular reenactment shows a stunning lack of judgment: Iott participated in Nazi reenactments involving the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking, which operated on the East Front.
Now don't get me wrong: I understand a movie on WWII would necessarily include actors, and I certainly don't read participation in a reenactment as an identification with the ideology of the Nazi movement. But I don't have a clue about Americans wanting to simulate a battle between the Nazis and our East Front allies, the Soviet Union. What is particularly odd is his initial defensive response, pointing out that the Nazis were taking out Communists, and the Panzer division was not involved in West Front operations (including American troops). Iott has responded to the kerfuffle by pointing out that of course he empathizes with the Jewish victims of the Holocaust, accuses the media of ignoring the many other more conventional reenactments he's participated in and of distracting the voters in Ohio from the real issues being decided in next month's election.
But I have to point out here that by many estimates at least 12 million Soviet civilians lost their lives in WWII and another 9 million military dead--roughly one out of every 8 people. In comparison, the cumulative American losses ranged below 500,000. I am not a fan of Joseph Stalin, but the vast majority of the people whom lost their lives in WWII were not Bolsheviks. If I was Russian, Mr. Iott's response would be highly offensive. No victims of the Nazi regime (including its own citizens and Russian civilians) should ever be forgotten.
I don't understand what could possibly motivate Mr. Iott to don a Nazi uniform under any circumstances or to participate in any related reenactment. The problem is that this is exactly the kind of thing that plays right into the hands of leftists looking to discredit the Tea Party as a radical right-wing group: it would be difficult to find a more stereotypical image than a Tea Party-backed political candidate wearing a Nazi uniform. You couldn't pay me to do that, and I have no plans for a political career.
The Tea Party Express seems to have gotten behind unconventional candidates with little appeal to independents and moderates, picking fights with other Republicans, and having unusual details in their backgrounds (e.g., the O'Donnell witch admission and Iott's Nazi reenactment). O'Donnell and Iott can claim these are incidental, irrelevant details, but people vote for more than just issues: they're voting for the person behind the issues. Have we learned nothing from McCain's ultimately disastrous selection of Sarah Palin, whom was negatively perceived by most moderates and independents?
Political Potpourri
There has been much talk of races tightening, in part buoyed by a strong September stock market, declining new filings for unemployment, and some controversial Republican candidates (e.g., California gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman's issue with her former maid, an undocumented immigrant; NY gubernatorial nominee Paladino's threatening confrontation with a newspaper reporter, Delaware US Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell's brief past experimentation with witchcraft, and GOP Republican candidate for an Ohio House seat (see above)).
It looks as though California gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown and incumbent Barbara Boxer have pulled out in front in California, Connecticut Senate candidate Blumenthal holds a strong lead over McMahon, Delaware US Senate candidate Chris Coons has about a 17-point lead over O'Donnell (whom is losing one in 3 GOP voters), and in New York both US Senate Democratic candidates are beginning to pull away as well as the gubernatorial candidate, Andrew Cuomo.
On the GOP side, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and Kentucky look like GOP are in a strong position to retain their open seats. Rossi in Washington, Johnson in Wisconsin, Kirk in Illinois, and Buck in Colorado seem to have leads, and Sharron Angle seems to have regained her momentum, with increasingly likely chances to flip Democratic seats. Perhaps even more intriguing is the fact that GOP candidates in Hawaii are running within the margin of error for governor and the first Congressional district. Even Michigan Democratic Congressman John Dingel seems likely to lose his seat.
Given the last unemployment report is dismal (and there won't be another before next month's election), the House looks 210-186 Republican leaning/strong/safe (218 needed to capture control). There look like only 2 turnovers from the GOP likely--Cao's New Orleans seat and Mike Castle's Delaware seat. Thirty seven of the 39 tossup seats are Democratic (with Djou's Hawaii seat and Mark Kirk's Illinois seats the only 2 GOP seats in question). I think in the vast majority of these races, if you are the GOP challenger and you're within 5 points of the lead, the odds are in your favor; I think undecided voters will look to send a message to Obama.
The Senate is looking like a possible 50-50 split
Political Humor
Bo, the White House dog, turns 2 years old today. Do you know the difference between Bo and the economy? Obama has fixed the dog. - David Letterman
[I disagree, Dave. Bo can't father new pups, but the Obama recovery can't father new jobs.]
The Senate has passed a new bill that requires TV stations to lower the volume level on commercials.
This is great, a hundred of the most powerful people in the nation have managed to do the same thing my remote does. - Jimmy Fallon
[This is nothing new. They have also passed bills that require you to save money for your retirement and to buy health insurance. I'm sure they must also be thinking of requiring you to brush your teeth and say your prayers before going to bed. Except the ACLU will have something to say about that last thing.]
Musical Interlude: The "British Invasion" of the 1960s Series
Petula Clark, "This Is My Song"
No, it isn't--it was written early twentieth century movie actor/director Charlie Chaplin, legendary actor of "The Tramp", also known for his bittersweet classic "Smile". There was a beautiful soliloquy during The Great Dictator I would like to quote:
I'm sorry, but I don't want to be an emperor. That's not my business. I don't want to rule or conquer anyone. I should like to help everyone if possible – Jew, Gentile – black man – white. "We all want to help one another. Human beings are like that. We want to live by each other's happiness – not by each other's misery. We don't want to hate and despise one another. In this world there's room for everyone and the good earth is rich and can provide for everyone.
