Analytics

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Miscellany: 7/27/10

Will the Government Motors' Volt Charge Up Sales?

A product's usability can be measured using a number of criteria--in the case of a car, it includes things like physical comfort of the driver and passengers, its functionality under a wide variety of driving conditions, and its reliability or limited downtime. The human factors or ergonomics of a car include considerations of its physical, safety and cognitive fitness to drivers; for example, to what extent can a driver's seat and accessories (e.g., seat belts) be adjusted  to accommodate very tall, short or obese people? Is there a learning curve if the car has new technology or features?

There are special considerations to the new GM Volt: its extraordinary cost ($41K) (of course, Obama will help you finance your purchase with a $7500 credit, courtesy of your children and grandchildren); its unprecedented use of battery technologies; and your risk in buying a state-of-the-art product from a financially troubled automaker.

Obviously the range on low-cost overnight charges will make a significant dent in driving costs, but there are drawbacks if you go beyond the range (the Volt will kick in with gasoline processing): where can you find a charging station or get a battery swap within a relatively short period of time.

I am skeptical. In theory this sounds very appealing--for example, shifting from gasoline to power generated from a nuclear power plant. But I think Obama and the other progressive Dems are pushing on a string; anyone who can afford a $41,0000 new car probably would buy it without the tax bribe, just for the status of being the first in their family, neighborhood, etc., to own one, or to score political points (e.g., "I'm an environmentalist; I'm doing my part..."). It should be interesting to see how Chevrolet (not Chevy) plays this market introduction. A radical product introduction at a high price without key infrastructure like public or private charging facilities in place in a tough economy? It's going to be interesting to see how GM plays this and if it tries any out-of-the-box approach;  if it can't find a gasoline retailer willing to partner for charging stations or battery exchanges, will it consider using its dealership network to seed the effort? And how will competitors respond? One thing is for sure: if Obama has any say in corporate decisions, I'm putting money on the other side... My gut tells me this experiment will not work--but they possibly could use the technology to build an interesting hybrid play...

I Just KNOW Obama Will Work This Story into His Class Warfare Rhetoric...

The Wall Street Journal recently published a study reporting the 25 most highly compensated executives of public corporations over the past decade. Leading the list by far is Oracle Corporation's Larry Ellison, whom picked up nearly $1.9B in compensation, about 97% of which came from selling his stock options, as he was one of the CEO's whom fairly earned his compensation, tripling the company stock price. (In contrast, PC entrepreneur Michael Dell, also on the list, pulled in about a quarter of Ellison's take, while his company's stock dived about two-thirds in value).

I first became acquainted with Oracle's signature relational database product (i.e., using Structured Query Language, introduced by IBM) at UH. My graduate database classes in the early 80's used version 2 on an IBM competitor's mainframe (the current version is 11G). I've professionally administered Oracle databases since 1993 (if anyone deserved a cut of that $1.9B cut...) Of course, I've owned Oracle stock in the past, the largest positions taken back in 1998 when I was a senior principal consultant for Oracle Consulting's public sector practice. [I have to laugh at one memory, when I was working on a project for the City of Oakland. The IT manager pulled me aside one day and said I was the only Oracle employee on the project from whom they felt they were getting their money's worth...] I left Oracle over subsequent project assignment decisions made by my practice manager; in particular, I was assigned a non-DBA deliverable at one Chicago area project where I would have had to make up numbers and I refused as a matter of professional ethics.

Oracle allowed a modest stock discount on limit employee stock purchases. I sold at some time after I left Oracle at a good price (I didn't triple my money, but I'm not complaining; Mr. IRS was very happy). Mr. Ellison and the famous Bill Gates (Microsoft) have had a noted rivalry for years (Microsoft sells a widely established competitive product called SQL Server). One of the ways they competed was over net worth; at one point, both were worth over $40B. Larry Ellison is a rather colorful person whom I've never personally met. One story was he imported a lot of rocks from Japan in building his estate; for those unfamiliar with the glories of Larryland, here's a good article. A former boss who lived in the San Francisco suburbs claimed that Larry Ellison showed up at some school production my boss was heading (apparently their kids attended the same school), and naturally Larry felt it was his right to take over the production. Not this time...

I don't personally think Ellison was worth as much as he earned--almost double the next person in line. No doubt people will complain Obama, in contrast, made only $400K a year.  (I think Obama is way overpaid.) But as Babe Ruth once said about making more than the President, "I had a better year than Hoover." Larry Ellison certainly had better years than Obama.

Political Cartoon

Remember in the late 1990's when, with a GOP Congressional lockdown on Clintonian superspending and the federal budget in surplus (i.e., mandatory social security reserves able to cover the balance of red ink),  people were actually starting to worry about where to buy T-bills... A decade later, IBD cartoonist Michael Ramirez shows how the Obama Administration, in one term of office, is on track to exceed almost all of federal debt accumulated up to George W. Bush's Presidency. The "Yes, We Can" voters felt that Obama could surely lead them through troubled waters; instead, the surging red ink from progressive ineffective superspending has poured over the banks, overwhelming the best attempts of a limited number of conservatives to impede its progress, and the result is the flooding of our economy, staining all of us and future generations.



Quote of the Day

Seek ye first the good things of the mind, and the rest will either be supplied or its loss will not be felt.
Sir Francis Bacon

Musical Interlude: Chart Hits of 2007

Plain White T's, "Hey There, Delilah"



Carrie Underwood, "Before He Cheats"



Elliott Yamin, "Wait for You"



Daughtry, "Home"