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Monday, November 30, 2009

Miscellany: 11/30/09

John Kerry's Obsession with OBL and Tora Bora

John Kerry just can't let it go, years after the 2004 campaign, when he charged that President Bush's inept leadership as Commander in Chief let Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden get away in December 2001, just 3 months after 9/11. A few US soldiers unknowingly came within mere yards of Osama Bin Laden hiding in an Afghan mountain cave in Tora Bora near the Pakistan border; Bin Laden was able to make his escape into the lawless areas of western Pakistan. The current politically-motivated Senate Foreign Relations report absurdly and oversimplifyingly blames this unlucky scenario for resulting in the current state of affairs, with an unstable western Pakistan and a strong Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

First, let me make myself clear: I want OBL brought to justice, dead or alive. If the US military or intelligence agencies find him and arrest him (or kill him), I'm fine with Obama taking all the political credit. My issue is with the polemical nature and hypocritical analysis of this self-serving report.

The often-repeated allegation is that Iraq was a distraction from the "real" war in Afghanistan/Pakistan. Let's get a few things straight. Pakistan has been a traditional American ally, more as strategic balance against India, which once had close ties with the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, there have been known ties between Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence and radical Islamic groups like Al Qaeda and Taliban (which, in fact, US military leaders asserted as late as last March still exist). Former Pakistan President Musharraf claims that Secretary of State deputy Richard Armitage (remember the Valerie Plame leak?) threatened him in the aftermath of 9/11, a charge Armitage disputes; Musharraf says that he war-gamed the idea of breaking with Washington over the alleged ultimatum to join in the alliance against terrorism. There has been anti-American sentiment in Pakistan over being seen as America's puppet and the belief that Pakistani civilians are paying the brunt of the price for the American war on terrorism. (What's that, you say? You haven't heard Obama berated (like Bush) for "breeding a new generation of terrorists" due to military actions under his command? I haven't, either....)

Second, the lack of state control over the western part of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan did not result as a consequence of the post-9/11 events; it was a preexisting condition. Similarly the Taliban's presence in Afghanistan and the radical Islamic religious schools in Pakistan predated 9/11; ask Indians about terrorist attacks from groups based in Pakistan--events that occurred before 9/11. Also, remember that the Taliban in Afghanistan wasn't so much defeated in military battles during the 2001 war with the Northern Alliance; rather, they retreated from the cities, reorganizing as a guerrilla force.

The point is, the world is complex. There are a number of facts explaining the current state of affairs, none of which involve the professionalism, competence and valor of American soldiers under two presidents,  including issues of national reconciliation in Afghanistan, inconsistent government services, and well-documented corruption and incompetence. The idea that stopping Bin Laden years ago would have resulted in the collapse of  international terrorism is not credible; it is sheer wishful thinking. One could just as reasonably argue that the "martyrdom" of OBL would have been the rallying cry for a new generation of extremists.

The fact that former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld was grappling with some of the same issues Obama and Gates are wrestling with--in terms of trying to balance military operations with the minimization of politically counterproductive collateral damage--points out the arbitrary nature and superficial analysis underlying the Senate analysis.

Let's hope one day Obama, Kerry, Geithner and other Democrats will stop whining about the hand they've been dealt and exercise some constructive leadership. If they don't want to take responsibility, they should get the hell out of the kitchen and let other people serve in their place: might I suggest they study Palin's resignation speech?

Obama: A Top Global Thinker?

Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, a former economics professor known for his research on the factors underlying the Great Depression, was named Sunday by Foreign Policy as #1 on its Top 100 Global Thinkers for allegedly preventing Depression #2. This sounds impressive, until you learn that they picked Obama #2 for "reimaging America's image in the world". Say what? The Obama Apology Tours, the prematurely announced Gitmo closure reimaged America in the eyes of the world? What specific accomplishments? Bush announced a schedule to leave Iraq before he left office; the CIA chief announced the end of the use of enhanced intelligence techniques (in Gitmo, applied to only 3 detainees, high-ranking Al Qaeda members) in 2006; Obama is widely expected to announce an intermediately-staffed surge in Afghanistan later this week. What has Obama fundamentally said differently apart from all the Democratic contenders for the 2008 nomination? What innovative foreign policy successes has he achieved towards resolving the Middle East Israeli/Palestinian dispute? Iran's race for nuclear weapons? North Korea's ongoing destabilizing moves in Southeast Asia?

I'm not revisiting the absurd awarding of Nobel Peace Prize for Obama's potential accomplishments (the principal criterion of which he is not George W. Bush). I don't have unrealistic expectations for Obama's ability to reconcile decades-long disputes in a short period of time. Here's what I do know: Obama doesn't have any professional foreign policy expertise or diplomatic experience. Whereas there's a lot to be said for certain symbolic gestures (the most notable of which comes to mind is Nixon's "ping pong diplomacy" with mainland China), I do not confuse symbolic acts with substantive accomplishments or innovative diplomacy.

Political Cartoon

Lisa Benson reminds American taxpayers before they buy this turkey of health care "reform" by the Democrats, they had better find out what the back room politicians have packed and hidden inside the bird. I have a feeling Americans are going to find them hard to swallow, never mind digest...




Christmas Music Interlude: Dolly Parton & Kenny Rogers "Once Upon a Christmas"

One of two Kenny Rogers' duets in my countdown. Rogers termed this during their holiday television special several years ago a "standard", and I agree; in fact, I think the song is one of the best (if not the best) songs Parton has ever written. I love the entire arrangement: Kenny Rogers' spoken introduction, the vocals and harmony, the orchestra,  and the choir. I purchased their album TWICE, based primarily on this song (I couldn't find my first copy after a move).