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Monday, November 23, 2009

Miscellany 11/23/09

The Real Democratic "Dithering"--A Pro-Business Growth Agenda


Dithering goes beyond Obama's analysis paralysis on Afghanistan deployment (whether to adequately staff the "real war"). The idea that Democrats are finally thinking of taking a second look at an economic package after spending months trying to "fix" (with various "revenue enhancers") climate change and health insurance reform--things that, by definition, actually impede recovery and job growth by adding business costs (including labor costs) The only positive thing is the recognition that adding another $15 or so to the family paycheck has not had the economic miracle grow effect they initially thought. What the Democrats really had a golden opportunity to do was the unexpected (like anti-communist Nixon's unexpected reopening diplomatic channels to mainland China)--say, for instance, a return to JFK's tax cut agenda. They need to focus on what affects job formation--and that's a return to sound conservative economics. I'm not holding my breath.


Media Conservatives Attacking Fact Checks on Palin's Memoirs

Regardless of how you stand on Sarah Palin, she is certainly not your average politician--a former small-town mayor whom bucked the GOP establishment, denied the incumbent Republican governor and longtime US Senator his renomination, and then defeated a former Democratic governor, despite a funding disadvantage. She forged a bipartisan coalition, passing significant political reforms, and gave birth in office to a special-needs child versus choosing the path of eugenic abortion. At one point, she had approval ratings far above even Obama's honeymoon 70%.

Why did McCain choose the second-year governor to be his running mate? This is a decision I myself have criticized in multiple posts; initially, I didn't think he would pick Palin because it seemed that he would essentially be contradicting his own experience argument against Obama and because the Troopergate scandal had already broken out; I didn't think he wanted the governor's political problems to become an issue during the closing weeks of the campaign. Why did he pick her? I think it was because she was a kindred spirit, a reformer, a bipartisan dealmaker and a maverick; I also think he saw her as a Washington outsider, whom might play well in a change election--and I think he also delighted in the fact that his choice caught the opposition completely flatfooted, which instantly reaffirmed McCain's legendary maverick reputation. Finally, I thought the fact that McCain chose a female governor also sent a message that this was not your grandfather's GOP.

I have to admit that Palin initally wowed me based on her first two public speeches, remarkably well-delivered, on accepting McCain's invitation to join the campaign and the nomination. By any objective standard, Obama misplayed his hand by not picking his chief nomination rival, Hillary Clinton, and in fact confounded his own change election message by nominating a white male first elected to the Senate before Obama became a teenager.

The fact is that McCain never really saw her as a strident conservative whom would appeal to the base; I think the fact that Sarah Palin had a special needs child really appealed to the pro-life activists, and this base began to expand as progressives unconscionably overreacted to the surprise nomination, i.e., the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

I don't think Sarah Palin ever intended to become the darling of the conservative base. She was worried that playing the traditional attack dog role of the VP candidate would undermine her approval ratings in Alaska, which indeed happened. She was also ill at ease with some of the conservative attacks during the campaign, for instance, criticizing the robo-calls. I think what happened was political opportunism--she was aware of the fact that her own rallies were attracting more people than McCain's, and she knew that former vice presidential candidates (e.g., Nixon, Humphrey, Mondale, GHW Bush, Dole, and Gore) were subsequently able to attain their own nominations for the top spot on the ticket. She decided to build on her accidental appeal to the conservative base, reflecting a chivalrous reaction to the left's attacks on her. By doing so, she destroyed the bipartisan coalition she had nurtured in Alaska, eventually resulting in her eventual resignation with an utterly unconvincing rationale. Any hint that her political support in Alaska was collapsing (e.g., a reelection defeat or narrow victory in a very difficult economy) would have undermined her national aspirations.

There is no doubt that there has been extraordinarily interest in Sarah Palin and her memoirs, further fueled by her distinctively unique life story, some in-fighting among McCain campaign staffers towards the end and aftermath of last fall's election, the Letterman controversy and her unexpected resignation. The book has been hyped for some time, with pop conservative magazine websites like newsmax.com and townhall.com promoting the book for free or at sharply discounted prices.

The chivalrous media conservatives are upset about the double standards by the fact that the AP did a fact check on the Palin book. I disagree; Palin has not ruled out a 2012 run, and she has frequently placed among the top 3 or 4 candidates in preliminary polls. In many cases, candidates will write a book outlining a message for a subsequent electoral campaign, and Palin reportedly sounds out some general themes. So I'm not surprised there was a fact check done on the biggest non-fiction title in months. As someone who has written journal articles and book chapters under peer review, I've always double-checked my sources. In fact, I am so detail-oriented that one of my articles was accepted on condition that I cut my bibliography (from over 400 entries) in half. Palin had to know whatever she wrote would be scrutinized and contradicted, certainly by her adversaries. You need to support your facts, avoid sweeping generalizations and separate your beliefs and opinions. If Sarah exaggerated her case beyond what the facts yield, it's her fault and responsibility, not an issue with fact checkers. Media conservatives, you do her no favor by not letting her accept responsibility for what she put in print; she's a big girl: she can take care of herself.

In fact, the AP fact check was more balanced than the conservatives implied; for instance, they confirmed in many cases Palin did stay in comparably lower-priced hotel rooms. Other points seem more polemical, e.g., criticizing Palin's claim that FDR's economic policies, if anything, prolonged the Great Depression. (That is a common assertion by many conservative economists); I think a fact check should have focused more on items directly involving Palin himself than an ongoing dispute between economists. (That being said, I would have normally qualified an opinion on this matter, noting that I have not done statistical research on Depression-era data, Instead, I would have probably relied on anecdotal observations like the admission of FDR's Treasury Secretary himself, frustrated that no matter what they had tried from a fiscal standpoint didn't seem to be working, years into FDR's Presidency, or pointed out the facts of stubbornly high unemployment until WWII.)

Political Cartoon

Chip Bok expertly gets at the core of Attorney General Holder's irresponsible decision to put 9/11 mastermind KSM in a civilian trial, which puts us in the horns of a dilemma of having to choose between prosecuting a war criminal (conferring ex post facto citizen rights on an international terrorist) and national security. When is the Obama Administration going to put American security above scoring political points with progressives?




Musical Interlude: My Favorite Josh Groban Song

I remember blaring "Alla Luce Del Sole", on a CD given to me as a Christmas gift, each day in my car as I commuted to a DBA gig in the Williamsport, PA area during the fall of 2003. The David Foster arrangement is inspired, and Josh's vocals are impeccable.



Lyrics (translated):

Darkness lies outside me, here,
And a bit inside as well...
How absurd is this desert city!

I can't even explain how,
But this is not my dimension,
And my mind gets never comfort,
It is always somewhere else.

But you... where are you? Where's your voice?
What about me if I don't have you,
If I don't get your help?

Everything will look better,
Under the light that will come from the sun!
This night will be gone,
Darkness will fade out!

Hills will be seen,
I will go on looking for you.

Away from this melancholy,
Envy or rage alike.
I don't want these words anymore
To be here in my heart

But you... where are you?
Where's your smile
What about me if I don't have you,
If I don't get your love?

Everything will look better,
Under the light that will come from the sun!
This night will be gone,
Darkness will fade out!

And under the light of that sun
I will go on looking for you.

Everything will look better,
Under the light, under the sun,
Silence will die,
People there will feel confused.

And under the light of that sun
I will go on looking for you.