We need a reality check. It is true that McCain cites Teddy Roosevelt as one of his favorite Republicans and that has to do with his populist streak. I think the populist streak increases his appeal to moderates and independents. But let's recall that any Republican would have had difficulty separating himself from Bush whom had very low approval ratings, economic problems generally favor the political opposition, particularly Democrats, and Obama had a massive campaign spending advantage to use in battleground states.
There's no doubt that McCain's performance had issues: the suspension of the campaign hurt, the Palin pick as Vice President backfired (others disagree, but the fact is that she had higher negative ratings than Quayle did), and McCain needed a decisive win over Obama during the few debates to which Obama agreed.
But the media conservatives were against McCain from the get-go, mostly for his unpopular votes for immigration reform and the earlier votes against the Bush tax cuts. (The first vote was more of a protest against the structure versus magnitude of the cuts, and he unfortunately used some class-warfare rhetoric in the process. The second was a concern about the size of the cuts given the growth of the deficit. He later voted to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.) The allegations that McCain is a progressive/liberal and the voters didn't have an ideological choice to make are rubbish; in fact, McCain opposed the expansion of Medicare entitlements, voted against the Clinton tax hikes, and has compiled better than an 80% lifetime rating by the American Conservative Union (vs. Obama's 10%). In comparison, the 3 moderate/liberal Republican senators who made a deal on the so-called stimulus bill have lifetime ratings in the 40's.
I think any Republican other than McCain would have done worse. Bush seemed to be resigned to sitting out the last two years of his Presidency, and any Republican would have been in a catch-22. Bush had failed to do things of consequence when the GOP controlled Congress between 2003 to 2006 in terms of entitlements, the federal deficit, the housing bubble stimulated by the Federal Reserve easy money policies and GSE purchases of risky mortgage notes, streamlining of operations, regulatory reform and energy independence; he had undercut Republican claims to better, smarter government by mismanaging operations in Iraq and Katrina, and his government intervention largely undercut the principles of classical economic liberalism (i.e., the free market).
I made several suggestions during the campaign itself, but I think there were two major mistakes: (1) McCain should have dumped Sarah Palin and brought in Mitt Romney. Sarah Palin, although she motivated the social conservative base, simply helped in states that McCain was already going to win. She simply did not have credibility with swing voters. Romney would have brought instant credibility given the ongoing economic tsunami and the media conservatives, who had been pushing Romney's nomination as Veep from the get-go, would have signed on. (2) McCain should not have suspended his campaign and put his full weight behind the House Republicans efforts during the economic tsunami. The House Republicans had tapped into voter anger behind the federal intervention. The Democratic Congressional leadership was on the hot seat during the crisis, and Obama's fortunes were linked to their performance. McCain would have broken with Bush in a very public way, instantly negating Obama's nonsense strategy of saying McCain was "more of the same" and making economic intervention itself an issue during the campaign. I thought it was very bad for McCain to hear the Obama campaign claim that McCain was stealing ideas from their own playbook.
I was a strong McCain supporter, but I had my share of disagreements with him. For instance, he agrees with listing waterboarding as torture and hence asserts it violates the Geneva Convention. I am very hesitant about criticizing McCain on this issue given his indisputable exposure to torture under the North Vietnamese as a POW, but McCain is wrong on two counts: (1) he begs the question of whether the waterboarding procedure as implemented constitutes torture, and (2) Al Qaeda is not a signatory of the Geneva Convention and engages in acts inconsistent with the laws and customs of war. I also think that John McCain is wrong in supporting embryonic stem cell research.
Suggestions for the GOP Future
I have written other posts where I've discussed what the GOP should do, but let me review a few salient points:
I made several suggestions during the campaign itself, but I think there were two major mistakes: (1) McCain should have dumped Sarah Palin and brought in Mitt Romney. Sarah Palin, although she motivated the social conservative base, simply helped in states that McCain was already going to win. She simply did not have credibility with swing voters. Romney would have brought instant credibility given the ongoing economic tsunami and the media conservatives, who had been pushing Romney's nomination as Veep from the get-go, would have signed on. (2) McCain should not have suspended his campaign and put his full weight behind the House Republicans efforts during the economic tsunami. The House Republicans had tapped into voter anger behind the federal intervention. The Democratic Congressional leadership was on the hot seat during the crisis, and Obama's fortunes were linked to their performance. McCain would have broken with Bush in a very public way, instantly negating Obama's nonsense strategy of saying McCain was "more of the same" and making economic intervention itself an issue during the campaign. I thought it was very bad for McCain to hear the Obama campaign claim that McCain was stealing ideas from their own playbook.
I was a strong McCain supporter, but I had my share of disagreements with him. For instance, he agrees with listing waterboarding as torture and hence asserts it violates the Geneva Convention. I am very hesitant about criticizing McCain on this issue given his indisputable exposure to torture under the North Vietnamese as a POW, but McCain is wrong on two counts: (1) he begs the question of whether the waterboarding procedure as implemented constitutes torture, and (2) Al Qaeda is not a signatory of the Geneva Convention and engages in acts inconsistent with the laws and customs of war. I also think that John McCain is wrong in supporting embryonic stem cell research.
Suggestions for the GOP Future
I have written other posts where I've discussed what the GOP should do, but let me review a few salient points:
- Adopt a More Positive Message. Barack Obama tapped into something legitimate (re: postpartisan America) in the terms of even though I think I would argue his own approach is more window-dressing than substantive (e.g., his speech this week implicitly attacked the Bush Administration over a dozen times, he has talked about willingness to use unconventionally the budget reconciliation process, which doesn't require filibuster-proof majorities, to pass his health care initiative, and he peeled off 3 liberal Republican senators versus negotiating with the GOP leadership for the so-called stimulus bill). One of the things that turned off voters last fall was the negative ads and the attacks on Obama's links with Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright and others. Don't get me wrong: I know negative ads have been part of the game since the birth of the republic. Give America some reason for vote FOR you versus AGAINST the other guy. A smiling, optimistic Reagan's conservative message won 5 of the last 8 Presidential cycles; an unsmiling Goldwater lost in a landslide. It's also important to phrase issues in a more positive way. For instance, we should not be against immigration reform (I've discussed the pro-growth reasons) but for fixing a broken guest-worker program and making long-overdue reforms in terms of criteria, quotas, etc. Reducing the discussion to "amnesty" is polarizing and is perceived by most immigrant communities as thinly-veiled xenophobia. Note that the GOP in California, with the exception of popular actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has had a difficult time winning on a statewide basis since the Pete Wilson gubernatorial campaigns. The GOP has lost ground not only with Hispanic-American voters, but Asian-Americans and others. This is a shame and a needlessly lost opportunity, because many immigrant groups put high value on educational excellence, are attracted to traditional American values (freedom, hard work, and initiative, e.g., building new businesses), and hold socially conservative values. It should also not escape notice that African-Americans provided a decisive edge in passing California Proposition 8, which supported traditional marriage.
- Provide a Unifying Political Vision and Goals. Instead of disjointed policies, focus on a pro-growth message, and then provide a relevant agenda that will grow the economy: lower barrier to entry (e.g., government paperwork and patchworks of state regulations and mandates), inflexible work rules, counterproductive, uncompetitive tax brackets, etc.). Point out that the Democrats' agenda is actually counterproductive, that the huge deficits will result in inflation and higher costs in servicing the debt.
- Offer a Fresher, More Pragmatic Approach. I believe that Barack Obama last fall largely co-opted McCain's message on tax-and-spend (although Obama's rhetoric on spending merely addressed McCain's obsession with earmarks, a minor percentage of federal spending). I think it's a mistake to allow your political opposition to define you. I think what the Republicans should do is argue lessons from Republican governors whom have had to meet a balanced budget, often by raising taxes and cutting spending; I think the lessons of California will not be lost as we move towards the 2010 and 2012 elections. The GOP should make it clear that there are no preconditions, and they are prepared to compromise in the interests of the United States. However, increasing taxes to cover Democratic spending sprees on behalf of their domestic agenda is not going to happen.
- Tell More Stories. McCain took full advantage of Obama's unforced error in arguing his case with Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher, particularly being caught on tape saying it's "good to spread the wealth around". The problem is: the McCain campaign stumbled upon the issue. cprights.org is doing a good job of highlighting some of the horror stories patients in other nations face. The GOP could do a better job highlighting, for instance, Medicare patients having problems finding doctors, doctors being forced to drop practices because of malpractice insurance, the paperwork demands that take away time from doctors' seeing patients, etc. Obama did a good job highlighting a poor South Carolina school near a rail station with crumbling infrastructure, etc. [Of course, it wasn't clear to me why the federal government was paying for what should have been a local or state funding priority, because I think it sets a bad precedent (especially given the current situation in California).]
- Focus on a "Back to Basics" Message. We need to get expensive unnecessary federal burden out of the hair of the private enterprise, e.g., Sarbanes-Oxley for small business. We need to scale back domestic and foreign entanglements, and we need to pick our political battles smarter and deliver more effectively. Although I'm empathetic to social conservative concerns, I think over the remainder of the Obama cycle, we need to focus on classical economic liberalism and the archetypal self-made man.
