I never had doubts about Rod Blagojevich. In 2002 I voted for Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan over Congressman Blagojevich in the Illinois gubernatorial election. But there's no doubt Jim Ryan was hurt by being the GOP candidate in the aftermath of the emerging corruption scandal involving outgoing Governor George Ryan (not to mention the bad luck of sharing the same last name).
George Ryan, probably best known nationally for his late-term moratorium on and crusade against enforcement of the death penalty in Illinois, was prosecuted by the same U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald for a number of offenses spanning his service as Secretary of State and Governor, most notoriously for stonewalling and lying to the FBI about the investigation of the commercial driver licenses for bribes scandal in Illinois. The licenses for bribes scandal broke out in the aftermath of allegedly licensed trucker Ricardo Guzman's accident in Wisconsin with the Willis family minivan, causing all 6 children (the youngest at 6 weeks) to burn to death. Ryan was also prosecuted for improperly steering state contracts to a lobbyist, Lawrence Warner, and illegally disbursing campaign money to relatives.
Blagojevich in 2002, looking to politically exploit the George Ryan scandal, ran on an anti-corruption platform, touting his experience as a former state criminal prosecutor. In my judgment, this is a particularly salient point that most current news stories have bypassed. The liberal media and feminist groups during the Paula Jones/Monica Lewinsky scandals silently ignored the fact that Bill Clinton had managerial status over the two women and hence was subject to sexual harassment policies. It is impossible that Clinton, a Yale-trained lawyer, was unaware of such policies and their applicability to his circumstances, even in the case of Lewinsky, where there was mutual consent (it has to do with perceived special access or treatment for non-job-related behavior). Similarly, Blagojevich, as a former prosecutor and veteran politician, cannot plead ignorance that the act of putting Obama's Senate seat up for sale to the highest bidder of money, position or favor was illegal.
The election of Obama must be especially bittersweet to Blagojevich, whom, according to state Rep. Joe Lyons (D), in 2002 had a 6-year plan, including his 2006 reelection, to launch his own bid for the Presidential nomination. Blagojevich, however, has a more combative (vs. Obama's non-confrontational) personal style, and by his second year in office, he was already clashing with other state or local Democrats, and rumors of corruption were already spreading. One particular conflict of note has been between Blagojevich and House Speaker Mike Madigan, father of Attorney General Lisa Madigan, long rumored to be candidate for the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nomination (along with current lieutenant governor Pat Quinn and others).
Blagojevich won a reelection battle of attrition against the GOP's last statewide officeholder, state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka. He bet his political future on a state health care program initiative, despite chronic state pension funding issues and other spending priorities. The legislative special sessions and public tax-and-spending feuds with Democratic officeholders soon shrank his approval rate to 13% in October (nearly half of George Ryan's ratings at the end of his gubernatorial term), and he was still banking that the health care initiative and fragmentation of the anti-Blagojevich vote in the 2010 primary might still sneak him forward to a third term (in what I prefer to think of as emulating corruption-charged Louisiana Democrat William Jefferson's 2006 election strategy). Over the past week following the announcement of the Obama Senate seat corruption charges, the Chicago Tribune reported his job approval plummeted to a record low of 8%.
One issue which particularly irked me was the revelation that Blagojevich had decided not to move his family into the governor's mansion in Springfield and decided to commute to Springfield from Chicago--via a state plane, at a cost multiple times over seats on commercial airflights. (Perhaps he should talk to fellow Governor Sarah Palin, whom famously initially listed her state plane on eBay!) Given the budget problems Illinois has been going through, it seems arrogant and unconscionable that Blagojevich was spending thousands of dollars of the state's budget in unnecessary travel expenses when the state already provided accommodations for his family in Springfield.
With unpaid legal bills running to a reported $500,000 and a tenuous political future, Blagojevich was probably hoping to capitalize off Obama's successful White Houston bid. Why not? After all, Obama and Blagojevich were both Chicago area politicians, both of them knew Rezko and other political cronies, Obama undoubtedly has been in contact with Blagojevich during his U.S. Senate tenure, and Obama had supported Blagojevich's gubernatorial campaigns. And obviously Obama has already named a couple of Democratic governors to his cabinet (i.e., Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)). No doubt that Blagojevich, touting his signature healthcare initiative, envisioned himself as a no-brainer leading choice for the Health and Human Services Secretary, and the selection of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, who has written a relevant public policy book, was a bitter pill to swallow.
Blagojevich was, to be blunt, delusional. There was no way on earth Obama, whose personal style is one of consensus and inclusion, was going to put a combative loose cannon like Blagojevich into his cabinet--and that was before even considering how Blagojevich, whom had racked up hundreds of thousands in legal bills, could ever survive a vetting process, never mind a Senate confirmation process.
What led to the FBI tapping Blagojevich's phones? Blagojevich had opposed, with Senate Democratic President Emil Jones, an ethics bill intended to weaken the influence of money in Illinois politics, and Blagojevich vetoed the bill. Obama, who had touted his own role for U.S. Senate ethics and lobbying reform, called Jones, his political mentor, to ask for Jones' help in overriding the veto. Jones reversed course, and the bill was unanimously overridden. Blagojevich, of course, realized that the bill would become law at the start of the coming year and hence had a limited time interval to press for campaign contributions under the old system, which resulted in the approved wiretaps.
Why did Blagojevich think he could get away with it? You might as well ask why Clinton thought he could get away with the Lewinsky affair; Clinton never thought Monica Lewinsky would have kept her soiled blue dress unlaundered, and the public would view rumors of an affair as a "he said, she said" situation. No one would ever believe the delusional rants of a political groupie. I think Blagojevich probably felt if the Feds really had anything on him, they would have played their hand before now.
But I also suspect that Blagojevich simply saw the Senate seat as an extension of political patronage in the rough-and-tumble world of Chicago politics and no different than, say, Delaware's governor nominating a Biden loyalist placeholder for the VP-elect's Senate seat until Biden's son is back from Middle East service to run in the 2010 special election. Blagojevich, of course, could have probably named himself to the seat himself, but he would have to run for reelection in 2010 and no doubt would face political repercussions for his self-serving appointment and strong challenges from the likes of Congressman Jackson. He could have nominated state Attorney General Lisa Madigan and thus eliminate one of his top contenders for the 2010 nomination. But with less than a 50% approval record from state Democrats before the arrest, Blagojevich would have attracted strong opposition either for reelection or the Senate.
I have continued to keep on eye on Illinois' politics since I moved to Maryland in mid-2004. I have watched the GOP struggle to regain its footing in the land of Lincoln after the George Ryan debacle. What Gov. Blagojevich has done is a tragedy, particularly for a person whom probably started his political career as an idealist, wanting to change the world for the better. It then deteriorated into a zero-sum game, even against members of his own party, and a fight for political survival. I have no doubt that Blagojevich resents that the less-experienced Obama got the political prize he had always wanted for himself. That Blagojevich would take the one political prize under his control accruing from the Obama election and use it as a quid pro quo for his own personal gain is sad but not surprising.
Obama's initial response implying that there had been no contact between his staff and the governor about his seat clearly was misleading and unfortunate. This is clear from the wiretap discussion where Blagojevich remarks with disdain about how far the Obama staff''s good wishes goes. My guess is that Obama was worried more about whether his staff failed to report to the Feds any improper requests from Blagojevich. Congressman Jackson's angry, defensive statement denying any authorized favor in exchange for consideration of a Senate appointment was similarly motivated by reported wiretaps involving his own candidacy.
Blagojevich at this point has been effectively stripped of the power to nominate Obama's successor to the seat. The US Senate would refuse to seat him if he nominated himself; an appointment of anyone else at this point would no doubt be their political kiss of death, with speculation over what Blagojevich got in the process and a likely refusal of the Senate to seat him or her.
I suspect Blagojevich will resign over the coming week. I don't think Lisa Madigan's attempt to have the Illinois Supreme Court rule Blagojevich unfit to serve is a legitimate exercise of the law's intent for cases like a severe physical disability (like a stroke). But Blagojevich has no hope of surviving an Illinois impeachment, and he has no political support in the legislature. The Democrats cannot afford to have Blagojevich fight on, but they have few weapons to compel him to resign in the short term. The reason I think Blagojevich might resign is the likelihood that the legislature in special session will strip him of the power to appoint Obama's successor. I don't think Blagojevich's pride will allow the diminution of his authority; he would rather resign than allow that humiliation.
Illinois deserves better; America deserves better. It's time for Blagojevich to resign.
