Analytics

Friday, August 9, 2013

Miscellany: 8/09/13

Quote of the Day
The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. 
It has merely made more urgent 
the necessity of solving an existing one.
Albert Einstein

Time Readers Respond to Detroit Bankruptcy Issue
Others, like Margaret Finley of Long Beach, Calif., objected to TIME's language: "Until I read Time's article I had never thought of pensions as 'entitlement' programs ... Pensions are earned." And Harlan Rosenthal of Fair Lawn, N.J., argued that reneging on pensions shouldn't be on the table: "By all means one may complain about [retirement benefits] but those were all set by contracts that the city negotiated. Every time retirees are cheated by contract breaches, it is another crack in the social contract that allows society to function."
I briefly mentioned in an earlier post a job interview I had probably around 1997 at a Chicago area steelmaker; I believe that they were running SAP ERP software on an Oracle database and recruiting for a Basis Administrator and I had recent relevant experience. He was doing a hard sell on their pension plan, which he believed was a competitive advantage. I bit my tongue and didn't say anything, but I remember thinking "I have 2 advanced business degrees and taught in business schools 4 of my 5 years as professor; do you think I don't know about the tough global environment for steel producers? You guys probably will be out of business before I'm ready to retire; do you think I can count on that pension, any more than I can count on social security?" Most of my past employers never had a defined benefit/pension program. Most, including my employers in academia, offered 401K/403B defined contribution plans (if they offered a retirement program).

I remember that whereas I had some empathy for employees at Enron whom had all their retirement money riding on the improbable rise in stock prices, I am sure that Enron retirement plans had alternative investments. I seriously doubt I would have had more than 10-15% in Enron at most, and I would have rebalanced my portfolio  (i.e., sold some Enron shares) if my Enron relative percentage surged. I know--easy to Monday morning quarterback, but when I worked for Oracle and IBM, I didn't include relevant positions in my IRA account. Diversification of assets is not rocket science; would you gamble your lifetime savings on a spin of the roulette wheel, one of the ponies to place, or a roll of the dice? But you would on your employer or a single investment?

In the case of Detroit, do I feel bad for pensioners affected by the bankruptcy? I have a nuanced response. When Time Magazine said that Detroit was in trouble as early as 1961, over FIFTY years ago, current and future pensioners had to be aware that the city had a failing business model; the population was declining as the middle class migrated to the suburbs. The property tax base was shrinking; the economy was largely dependent on the automakers, and by the 1980's foreign car makers were gaining market share to the extent many schools started teaching Japanese. Semiskilled assembly work was harder to come by. Around 40% of the city's streetlights aren't functioning and it takes nearly an hour to get an emergency call for city police to respond.

The city is boxed in; its tax rates are already too high and noncompetitive--and abysmal city leadership started looking looking for funding. Short-funding pension contributions is a classic. Unrealistic investment return expectations double that of private-sector returns? Higher returns mean lower city funding requirements; the bottom line is that the private sector has found itself contributing more for pensions than the public sector. The unions should have been aware of this, demanding full funding, not shifting the pension burden to future city fiscal years.

The house of cards has come crashing down. The idea that the city is going to be able to make up for past funding gaps is a departure from reality; the money needed for basic city services cannot be spent on pension obligations. A city needs a sustainable business model; this means just as other Detroit creditors must take a haircut, so do pensioners; the city cannot pay out money it doesn't have: fact of life deal with it. Is it unfortunate? Of course. But any city employee or retiree believing in unrealistic promises hasn't been paying attention for decades; they can't possibly believe that the city's problems wouldn't affect them. State constitutional protections did not force Detroit to adequately fund its fair share on a year by year basis. I don't care what the state constitution says: a city cannot spend money it doesn't have.

FNC Has a Prime-Time Shakeup

Drudge reported this week that Megyn Kelly will take over Hannity's prime-time slot. FNC also has a long-time contract with Hannity; it could be Hannity takes over Shep Smith's 7PM slot (which I think is likely), the Five's slot or Bill O'Reilly's late-night rerun slot following Greta. I don't see the need for 2 consecutive news shows starting with Special Report.

I suspect that Fox is grooming Kelly to eventually succeed O'Reilly if and when he retires. But it should be interesting to see how the show is formatted; Megyn has her little court battle simulation gimmick, but Greta is also a lawyer; you need more than that to build a prime-time show, and I don't see her holding a prime-time audience with what she was doing in the early afternoon or a boring legal affairs show.. Even Jay Leno bombed in prime-time. I'm sure they have ideas, but to be honest I would rather watch Hannity than Kelly. But I'm hardly FNC's typical viewer (and I haven't watched their prime-time offerings in months).

A New Grand-Nephew

My RN niece and son are doing well; she delivered (without midwife) at home. I quipped about the home delivery charge, but she should qualify for the self-serve discount. By my count that makes 6 grand-nephews and 7 grand-nieces. God is good.



Cato Event, Libertarianism vs Conservatism: An Intern Debate

I have a keen interest in this area because I have characterized myself as a  fusion libertarian-conservative, with the more conservative side on pro-life issues and traditional institutions like marriage and family. Nick Gillespie wrote a recent Washpo piece on 5 myths about libertarianism; one of the items he points out deals with abortion, with about a third of libertarians siding with the Paul's, Amash, and me.

My first thought (I hadn't seen a real debate in years) is how refreshing this was versus what passes these days as "Presidential debates", little more than the exchange of rehearsed sound bites. The debate consisted of coed intern pairs from (libertarian) Cato and (conservative) Heritage. I did not formally evaluate the performances, but I felt the male debaters were more effective, forceful and articulate, and I thought the libertarian side had the better performance overall. I did not like the conservative side's closing statement; being dismissive of libertarians as unrealistic and particularly strident in attacks on drug legalization and immigration reform.

I thought it was interesting how both sides seemed to be caught off-stride by an ad hoc "is Snowden a hero or traitor". I was impressed the Cato side had a more nuanced response, including a duty to honor his employment contract.

A lot of the talking points were overly familiar, and I would have an alternative, fresher approach. For example, on the drug prohibition issue, I might have compared alcohol prohibition and pointed out great conservatives like William Buckley have come to shift their views.

Among missed opportunities I thought was in the Q and A portion where a question was posed what about a wedding vendor (say, a baker or florist) whom did not wish to transact, for religious or other reasons, to serve a same-gender couple. From principles of transactions as voluntary, I would say the vendor has the right to sell his or her goods to preferred customers. Personally, I think it's stupid behavior to refuse to sell (in any event the couple can get "married" without said products; the vendor isn't aiding or abetting immoral behavior), but I'm sure there are gay-friendly alternative vendors, and I would rather do business with appreciative vendors. (I'm sure that Barack Obama has no problem with using coercive means to outlaw private-sector "discriminatory behavior".)

Political Humor

Before they went on vacation, Congress voted to exempt themselves from Obamacare. They gave themselves a special exemption because they thought it was too expensive. So the people who voted for Obamacare for us voted to exempt themselves from it. You know how doctors take the Hippocratic Oath. Congress apparently takes the "Hypocritic Oath" - Jay Leno

[Pelosi finally told her colleagues what was in the bill they voted for.]            

The Mars rover Curiosity is celebrating its first anniversary on Mars. So far, in the year it’s been up there it’s sent back 70,000 photos. I know that sounds like a lot, but it’s still less than Anthony Weiner sent out. - Jay Leno

[But Curiosity has more nerd followers...]

A man in Colorado wants marijuana to be classified as a vegetable. I just have to say that that's an ingenious way to get Americans to stop smoking pot. - Conan O'Brien

[Speaking of vegetables, Obama has gone to a new level of Bush-bashing. George H.W Bush once said, "'I do not like broccoli. 'And I haven't liked it since I was a little kid and my mother made me eat it. And I'm President of the United States, and I'm not going to eat any more broccoli!'' Obama responded: "Let me say this -- I have broccoli a lot....Me and broccoli, we've got a thing going."]

Political Cartoon

Courtesy of Gary Varvel and Townhall
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups Redux

The Beatles, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps". I was utterly stunned to discover this Harrison classic didn't chart (Ob-la-di  hit #1 in 3 countries, but no place for this track.  Of course, Harrison was a great guitar player in his own right, but he asked Eric Clapton to do the epic guitar work in the track (second video).