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Sunday, March 10, 2013

Miscellany: 3/10/13

Quote of the Day
What was hard to bear is sweet to remember.
Portuguese proverb

Earlier One-Off Post Published Today

The O'Reilly-Colmes Kerfuffle

The relevant video is embedded at the bottom of the post for blog post format reasons.

According to Politico:
O’Reilly kicked off his show by saying President Barack Obama does not want to “solve the fiscal mess" and that he is too focused on flipping the Republican-held House back to the Democrats to deal with the country's economic issues.
During their debate, Colmes noted that Obama has offered cuts on entitlements and Medicare, but O’Reilly shot back that those weren’t “specific.”
“He has to say, ‘Here are the programs that are going to go down. Here is how we are going to reform Medicare and Social Security,’” O’Reilly said. “And the man refuses to do it.”
“That’s not true,” Colmes said.
“Hold it, hold it, because now I’m getting teed off at you,” O’Reilly replied as he grew visibly agitated. “Give me one damn program he said he’d cut? One?”
“He has cut entitlements,” Colmes said.
“Not entitlements, one program!” O’Reilly jumped in.
First, I'm not at all interested about O'Reilly losing his temper and calling Colmes a liar. Colmes was deceptive as I'll discuss shortly.

Second, there is no doubt Obama is very frustrated having to deal with a GOP-controlled House and would clearly like a do-over of the 111th Congress. There is no doubt that Obama was exaggerating the impact of sequestration for the political benefit of Democrats. Will it work? No. I do think Obama wins a popularity contest against a generic Republican; I do think that cutting spending is politically difficult:  people agree in concept, disagree in specifics. (It's like the Congress--the problem is the other guy's Congressman.)

Third, it is true that Obama has hinted flexibility about 2 GOP ideas,  deferring in modest intervals Medicare, like social security,  ultimately to 67 and means-testing eligibility. There's a difference between putting something on the table and making cuts; Alan Colmes doesn't seem to know the difference. I will point out that there are only so many rich people to be means-tested. and since health costs correlate with age, the cost savings should be modest. Both Republicans and Obama have to think bigger: the cash flows are unsustainable. I think in the long run Congress will need to cap its subsidy of the program and probably allocate the subsidy among the states.

I do think O'Reilly is correct in what he clearly implies: this President has no credibility on cuts in the discretionary budget,. And Colmes is correct: entitlement programs are government programs, but Obama cannot change policies without Congressional action.

I think O'Reilly won the debate on points; the GOP leadership has been saying  for some time Obama talks a good game but SHOW ME THE BILL. But O'Reilly lost on style.

Edward Luce, "A good engineer who knows his own limits": Thumbs DOWN!
Without the Fed’s easy money, the stock market would be languishing and unemployment would be rising...Mr Bernanke’s grounding has given him the authority to dismiss those who view the meltdown through a moral lens and want to purge society for its excesses. Had he embraced this popular intuition, the US would now be following the UK into triple-dip recession. Since 2011, fiscal policy has been a drag on the recovery. US growth is expected to hit about 2 per cent in 2013. Were it not for the fiscal cliff and the sequestration, it might be heading for 3 per cent.
Get a room! Luce conveniently forgets Bernanke's role in regulation prior to the economic tsunami. he is right that the New Deal didn't fix the Depression, but it was mistakes in both fiscal and monetary policy which exacerbated the Depression. I want to point out that the Bernanke has had near-zero interest rates for over 4 years, growth seems to sputter each time it reaches 2%, that federal spending has increased every year during the Obama Presidency, even after sequestration. The idea that crony bankers and the pixie dust of fiat currency can improve over a free market is sheer hubris.



Will We See European Currency in Divorce Court?

From the Telegraph:
A new party led by economists, jurists, and Christian Democrat rebels will kick off this week, calling for the break-up of monetary union before it can do any more damage.
"An end to this euro," is the first line on the webpage of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). "The introduction of the euro has proved to be a fatal mistake, that threatens the welfare of us all. The old parties are used up. They stubbornly refuse to admit their mistakes."
They propose German withdrawal from EMU and return to the D-Mark, or a breakaway currency with the Dutch, Austrians, Finns, and like-minded nations. The French are not among them. The borders run along the ancient line of cleavage dividing Latins from Germanic tribes.
Europeans seem to be running an anti-austerity, if not anti-German  populist wave;  Chancellor Merkel is seen as increasingly vulnerable. I was speculating about a possible return to the mark several months back. I don't see it as inevitable but I'm surprised to seeing the discussion already reaching the political arena. I keep seeing links in Drudge Report about Club Med leaders saying "Enough already with austerity." Will the Germans really bail out less frugal Europeans?

Sandy Springs, GA - Outsourcer

A former cash cow for Atlanta, milked for taxes while local infrastructure projects (e.g., road repairs) were given short shrift: now free, one of the first things they did privatize non-safety operations at half the cost, defined-contribution retirement and health savings accounts for remaining city employees, no unfunded liabilities, newly paved roads and new city parks... Be still my heart!



Political Humor



Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups

Steve Perry/Journey. "Foolish Heart". Steve's second most well-known solo hit.



The O'Reilly-Colmes Clash