I phoned my dad to tell him I had stopped smoking.
He called me a quitter.
Steven Pearl
Government-Directed Social Security:
1.2% Return After Inflation?
Professor Davies, who appeared on a prior embedded video in this blog (remember when he showed we didn't have a revenue problem, but a spending problem?), does a good job here of picking out a few details that many popular discussions gloss over. I do think he needs to tweak at least one figure because the exhaustion of the social security trust fund got pushed up 3 years:
After 2020, Treasury will redeem trust fund assets in amounts that exceed interest earnings until exhaustion of trust fund reserves in 2033, three years earlier than projected last year.Understand what this means: we still have a pay-as-you-go system; the problem is that the government will have to draw down on the reserves to cut a full benefit check. What the actuaries are saying here is that until 2020, we can draw down on interest income paid on the Treasury investments in the reserve. After then, we have to start selling the bonds themselves to make up the difference. Here's the point: we are one generation away from future generations basically having to fund the difference directly in the government operations budget. And I suspect unless hiring really picks up soon (unlikely), we could continue to see these dates pushed up even more.
A couple of notes many popular articles don't point out: (1) the lack of a guarantee of future payments by the government and (2) money is fungible. That is, most people are aware of the 6.1% (well, not the last two years, inclusive) they pay into social security, while the employer matches it. The employer really doesn't care whether all 12.2% is paid by you or them or (as it is currently) split: it's part of your compensation. I'm aware of this because I've worked on occasion on an "all-inclusive" 1099 rate, and I have to figure that versus a W-2 rate (where the contractor pays the employee match).
Davies is trying to get across that you would be better off taking control of that 12.2% directly versus depend on a feckless Congress unwilling to make up the difference to a full check. (That seems improbable today given the potent senior citizen lobby, but God knows what happens when taxpayers finally end up having to pay Obama's bills as well as their own.)
It's been 7 years since Bush tried to push one of 3 bipartisan committee choices for social security reform, allowing you to control 2 points of your contribution. (The Democrats argue that since we have a pay-go system, we would have to replace the deduction with a federal loan. Of course, these days, they don't have a problem covering $1T deficits with loans...) Democrats comparing investing with gambling? Irresponsible. HINT: when Obama says "investing", he means spending federal dollars.When I say "gambling", I mean someone voting for Obama this fall thinking he'll do better as an unaccountable lame duck President than he has been doing over the past 4 years.
My Favorite Bobby Goldsboro Song
Most people probably know Goldsboro from "Honey", a sentimental Robby Russell song about a man's wife that hit #1 for 5 weeks in 1968 or "Watching Scotty Grow", a Mac Davis song about his young son growing up. There are a number of other great songs "See the Funny Little Clown", and my favorite coming-of-age song, "Summer, The First Time". I once tried to go see him perform at Gilley's in Pasadena (TX) around the time of the "Urban Cowboy" craze; I say "tried" because for God knows what reason, some guy in a pickup truck behind me ran me off the road. I could see him screaming and pointing at me past his wife or girlfriend riding shotgun (which was ironic) and pleading for him to let whatever it was go. Shaken up by the incident, I headed back home.
Obviously the reference to baseball great Willie Mays dates the song a bit: he was retired long before I first heard the song. I may have mentioned this song once or twice in the past; I discovered it on a double album, and it immediately jumped out at me on first listen. (The musical arrangement reminds me a bit of Jefferson Airplane's "White Rabbit".)
A live version of the song is embedded below where Goldsboro talks about the inspiration behind his song (I love to hear a songwriter's story behind his song); a studio version of the original song is here. Goldsboro speaks of how the song was boycotted by stations as a protest song.
I remember as a kid pretending to be a newscaster compiling my little news report and practicing in front of a mirror; I would remember how Walter Cronkite would run down the latest week's casualty report from Vietnam. To a young kid, it seemed like the war was going to last forever. But to a certain extent to me, it was like a war movie on TV. It didn't become real to me--until my dad got his orders for Vietnam. Since my dad was in the Air Force, the risk was low. But when you're the oldest of 7 and not even a teenager, what if the worst happened?
I didn't identify with the protesters and have never been an ideological pacifist, but I was, and remain, profoundly skeptical. I remembered this one neighborhood friend back at the Kansas post; his dad was in the Army. He was a die-hard Green Bay Packers fan, and he and I used to debate which was the real American pastime--baseball (my position) or football. I noticed one day he wasn't around; my mom quietly told me that his dad had been killed. It's funny what goes through your mind at a moment like that. I desperately wanted to let him know that he was right and I was wrong: football is better, and the Packers were the greatest team ever. It's a guy thing.
The resident assistant of the OLL men's dorm was Tom; he was a veteran whom lost his leg. I could be mistaken, but I think he told me that he had been injured in the battle of Hamburger Hill. He and I had conversations about what happened; I don't think it was bitterness over his missing limb so much as both sides were battling over this one stupid hill, swapping control. It all seemed so pointless and absurd; the battle was simply chewing up men. My dad had just finished up a European tour with the rest of my family; he was planning at the time to retire in Texas; they visited me on their way back. Tom frequently limped around without his prosthesis, and my young baby sister loudly and needlessly pointed out to everyone Tom had a missing leg. Her reaction didn't bother Tom at all; he knew kids were curious.
Tom, a tall white man, was dating Sally. Sally and I worked together in the cafeteria on cleaning and washing dishes our freshman year. Sally was a petite, flawlessly pretty Latina with curly dark hair and a friendly, outgoing personality, a natural conversationalist. We used to have some interesting conversations (which I hope the sisters in the nearby dining hall didn't overhear). I had a secret crush on Sally; I used to tease her that she looked just like a life-sized version of a Latina doll (no lie). She would pretend to get angry and throw gross stuff at me. The reason I mention this is that it dawned on me one day I was jealous of Tom: he was the lucky guy whom got to date Sally.
It's difficult to say when I transitioned to more of a non-interventionist foreign policy. I think it's always been there but in a more pragmatic form. True, I'm a former Navy officer, but that's because Admiral Rickover was a control freak. I was simply looking for a teaching job, say, at a junior college. Rickover didn't want subcontractors teaching at his Navy schools and recruited fresh instructors with newly-minted Master's or doctorates to 4-year, nonrenewable contracts.
There are a few things over the last nearly 4 years of writing this blog that led me to come out more forcibly for my non-interventionist perspective:
- The Budget Deficit and National Debt. Don't you just love the way that Obama and the Dems try to hold Bush responsible for the FY2009 deficit of about $1.3T? In fact, a FY2009 budget was approved by the Dem-controlled Congress, but Bush did not sign it. (If Bush had signed a budget, why there were continuing resolutions, an omnibus budget and/or stimulus, all bearing directly on FY2009 spending and signed into law by Obama? See win's comment here. You might be able to argue Bush's responsibility stretches to March 6. It's hard to argue that Bush is responsible beyond March 6 since the Dems did not pass Bush's budget (which, by the way, called for $3.1T in spending). Personally I prorate responsibility by Treasury to the Penny debt standing in a shared fiscal year on inauguration day. That is, Obama should be responsible for the two-thirds plus of the FY2009 on his watch.
But the point is that the defense/related appropriations amount to roughly 20% of the federal budget. When we have exceeded the size of our economy in debt, we can no longer afford unsustainable initiatives as the world's policeman. We need a paradigm shift from the high cost status quo. The only "fair" solution is to achieve cost savings equally across the budget.
- The Law of Unintended Consequences Applies to Foreign Intervention. A simple example: Iraq served as a counterbalance to Iran in the region. The whole theory of helping to liberate Iraq was to promote stability in the region, but Iran has replaced Iraq as a destabilizing force in the region.
- We Lack the Sociopolitical Competencies, Scale or Global Infrastructure to Nation Build or Intervene. Just look at how intervening in two small countries (Iraq and Afghanistan) have strained morale and equipment/supplies.
- Crony Alliances and Unrealistic Expectations. The point I'm trying to make here is that the implicit guarantees of US backing may result in risky actions. We need to make it clear that our alliance partners do not hold a blank check and need to engage in good faith negotiations with regional neighbors to resolve regional disputes. Any intervention must be evaluated within the context of US interests.
- Intervention Inertia, Political Factors, Policy Ambiguity and Long Decision Cycles. Let me point out a few examples to make my point: there were the disputed Afghan election results. Why are precious American lives at stake to prop up an illegitimate leader? We need definite, shorter decision cycles to determine that there is a net US interest benefit to continuing operations, so we don't throw resources at a problem. I found the handling of the Egypt crisis and other elements of the Arab Spring revolt ambiguous at best. Obama's decision on the Afghanistan surge seemed patently political in nature: he simultaneously called for a modestly staffed surge operation and withdrawal. The latter was seemingly designed to reassure domestic critics, but it sent a signal to the opposition that they could wait out the short-term intervention. Finally the administration and GOP sent out messages promoting an American stay in Iraq past Bush's extension and there is resistance against withdrawal from Afghanistan based on an "unstable situation". No solution can be expected to be perfect; we must not intervene to impose the criteria of our own democratic republic
Lyrics by Bobby Goldsboro
"Dream on, little Broomstick Cowboy,
Of rocket ships and Mars;
Of sunny days,
And Willie Mays,
And chocolate candy bars.
Dream on, little Broomstick Cowboy,
Dream while you can;
Of big green frogs,
And puppy dogs,
And castles in the sand.
For, all too soon you'll awaken;
Your toys will all be gone.
Your broomstick horse will ride away,
To find another home.
And you'll have grown into a man,
With cowboys of your own.
And then you'll have to go to war,
To try and save your home.
And then you'll have to learn to hate;
You'll have to learn to kill.
It's always been that way, my son;
I guess it always will.
No broomstick gun they'll hand you;
No longer you'll pretend.
You'll call some man your enemy;
You used to call him 'friend.'
And when the rockets thunder,
You'll hear your brothers cry.
And through it all you'll wonder
Just why they had to die.
So dream on, little Broomstick Cowboy,
Dream while you can;
For soon, you'll be a dreadful thing:
My son, you'll be a man.
Political Humor
What's sad is when he fed Bo the rest of his sandwich... It's a dog-eat-dog world...
"President Obama has come up with a new campaign slogan — "Forward" — that's the slogan. And believe me, if unemployment doesn't improve by November, it'll be -'Forward my mail.'" - Jay Leno
[It's that handy Forward button on the iPod when young voters play their ripped 'Obama Promises Vol 1' CD: "cut the deficit in half...' [FORWARD]; "close Gitmo..." [FORWARD]; pass immigration reform the first year in office [FORWARD]; ban all earmarks [FORWARD]; end Bush tax cuts for higher income [FORWARD]...
For 4 webpages of itemized broken Obama pledges compiled by PolitiFact, see here.]
"President Obama made a surprise visit to Afghanistan yesterday. It wasn't as big a surprise as last year's Navy SEALs trip to Pakistan, but it was big." - Jay Leno
[Did you think Obama was going to miss the first surprise deathday party for UBL? The Navy SEALs had invited him there to spike the first honorary football...]
"Not such a great day for President Obama. Today he admitted he "made up" a girlfriend in his autobiography. It's a good thing Oprah's off the air because this would have gotten him kicked out of her book club." - Craig Ferguson
[It's part of Obama's calculated attempt to reach out for the geek vote: we have made-up girlfriends, too. The main difference is that most of us don't wake up afterwards to smoke a cigarette ...]
"A Las Vegas airport got the highest marks for quick security. Of course. In Vegas, every other person is a stripper. You just whip off your belts and shoes and you're through in no time." - Craig Ferguson
[It turns out only a handful of people a day can afford to fly home after gambling in Vegas.
People in Vegas make all sorts of crazy bets. Like casino magnate billionaire Sheldon Adelson put $5M down on Gingrich.]
A new survey found that a third of Americans would not be able to pass the U.S. citizenship test. It's a real insult to our Founding Fathers — Denzel Washington and George Jefferson." - Jimmy Fallon
[What's worse is that SCOTUS justices took the same test, and none of the liberal justices could remember what's in the Bill of Rights... They looked for 'penumbra' and/or 'emanations' but couldn't find them among the choices available...] The ironic last joke is dedicated to Judge Bork...
"Senator Joe Biden and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg played a round of golf together last week. Biden shot an 89 while Bloomberg shot the person who arranged a round of golf with Joe Biden." - Jimmy Fallon
[Senator Joe Biden?....
VP Biden has to be ready to step into Obama's shoes at any time. You know what that means: yup, he's got to step up and work on his golf game and vacations... Who knows when we'll have another crisis like the BP oil spill?
Biden would have scored even better except he did not want to anger his animal rights supporters by shooting an eagle or birdie.
When Biden bragged to Clinton about his score, Clinton mentioned that he took the lead position at 69.]
Musical Interlude: My Favorite Groups
The Rolling Stones, "She's a Rainbow." Hands down, my favorite Stones song: I love every word, every single note--even the instrument tuneup sounds. If the video stays up, look for Ms. Blue Eyes Sugar and Spice and Everything Nice at 3:38-3:42. Sigh!
Have you ever seen the colorful dresses, scarves, etc., worn by Indian women (e.g., here)? I'm sure someone has thought of doing a Bollywood-like video of Indian women in colorful garb dancing to "She's a Rainbow"; I would love to see that.
